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ARMY

Army 49 at North Texas 52

UNT
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Blake Patterson punt for 49 yds , Mike Reynolds returns for no gain to the Army 7 Mike Reynolds fumbled, recovered by NoTex Taylor Robinson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginTime remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Home team on offense+3.7Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Blowout margin−0.4Time remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 10:04: Nic Smith run for 3 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +24.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 4:05: Andy Davidson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK) — ARMY win probability +31.7 pts (now 58%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:13: Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 68 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +35.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:23: Andy Davidson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK) — ARMY win probability +44.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:05: Trevor Moore 39 yd FG GOOD — UNT win probability +28.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ARMY made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 15:00UNT 4th & 1 at ARMY 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    55.4%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:10ARMY 4th & 11 at UNT 36, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.6%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    38.8%
    42% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00UNT 4th & 2 at UNT 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:33UNT 4th & 1 at ARMY 38, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    66.5%−2.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q3 7:04ARMY 4th & 2 at ARMY 39, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:09UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−1.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  7. Q4 10:04ARMY 4th & 4 at UNT 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    19.1%−1.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    15.8%−4.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ARMY made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:55UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:52ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:31UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:45UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:58ARMY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    35.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:11UNT Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 4:33ARMY Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 12:21ARMY Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    41.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:04UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:42ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:04UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 4:05ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.0%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 3:13UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−2.0
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 1:23ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.8%−4.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 4:0551% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
50.6%
Jeffery Wilson run for no gain to the NoTex 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+29
50.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 29 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
50.6%
Jeffery Wilson run for 3 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+17
50.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 17 yds to the Army 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
50.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to O'Keeron Rutherford for 7 yds to the Army 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 21
0
50.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+2
50.6%
Jeffery Wilson run for 2 yds to the Army 19Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+3
50.6%
Jeffery Wilson run for 3 yds to the Army 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
50.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 11 yds to the Army 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
53.4%
Jeffery Wilson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 6:0347% → 50%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
52.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+4
52.6%
Kell Walker run for 4 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+25
52.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 25 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
52.3%
Kell Walker run for 2 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+5
52.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+4
52.3%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
52.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 9 yds to the NoTex 18Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+6
52.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the NoTex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
52.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 9 yds to the NoTex 3Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+2
52.1%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 1:2152% → 58%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
52.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jeffery Wilson for 5 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+15
52.3%
ARMY Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Cameron Jones) to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
53.0%
Jeffery Wilson run for 11 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
58.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 45 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 39 yds · 2:2143% → 42%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+35
56.3%
Andy Davidson run for 35 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
54.9%
Kell Walker run for 3 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 7
OPP 32
-5
54.7%
ARMY Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 37Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+1
55.8%
Andy Davidson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 36Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
56.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:10
4TH & 11
OPP 36
0
58.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0559% → 59%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
59.0%
Jeffery Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 34Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
58.5%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+10
58.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 10 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
59.1%
Blake Patterson punt for 49 yds , Mike Reynolds returns for no gain to the Army 7 Mike Reynolds fumbled, recovered by NoTex Taylor RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6TD
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0861% → 68%
Q2 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
60.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Kelvin SmithSimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
67.6%
Jeffery Wilson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:4735% → 39%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
64.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
64.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
64.5%
Andy Davidson run for 6 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+13
63.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 13 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
63.6%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 8 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+1
63.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the NoTex 37Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+5
63.5%
Andy Davidson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
63.1%
Andy Davidson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+8
62.9%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 8 yds to the NoTex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
62.9%
Fred Cooper Jr. run for 1 yd to the NoTex 18Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+3
62.9%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the NoTex 15Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+15
61.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 15 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8TD
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:4765% → 74%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
65.4%
Jeffery Wilson run for no gain to the Army 32Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
65.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 9 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+3
64.7%
Nic Smith run for 3 yds to the Army 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
65.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+10
65.4%
FINE, Mason pass incomplete (Brinson, K.), PENALTY ARMY personal foul (Nachtigal, J.) 10 yards to the ARMY10, 1ST DOWN NT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
74.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 10 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3828% → 37%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
71.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 14 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+29
71.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 29 yds to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
69.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+12
69.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 12 yds to the NoTex 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
69.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 8 yds to the NoTex 7Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+7
62.9%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10INT
12 plays · 45 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
67.7%
Jeffery Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
68.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+14
67.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 14 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
68.8%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
68.8%
Jeffery Wilson run for 2 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+7
68.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 7 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+3
67.3%
Jeffery Wilson run for 3 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
68.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen Guyton, broken up by Rhyan EnglandSimilar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+16
68.1%
Jeffery Wilson run for 16 yds to the Army 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
68.2%
Mason Fine pass intercepted Max Regan return for no gain to the Army 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
68.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 4 yds to the Army 12Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+4
68.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Army 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:3931% → 52%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+31
68.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 31 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+22
66.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 22 yds to the NoTex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
64.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the NoTex 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+2
64.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the NoTex 17Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+17
47.9%
Fred Cooper Jr. run for 17 yds for a TD, (A. Bradshaw Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13TD
13 plays · 88 yds · 5:1755% → 76%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-10
54.7%
Mason Fine sacked by Kenneth Brinson for a loss of 10 yards to the NoTex 2Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 20
OWN 2
+18
54.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 18 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+9
53.4%
Jeffery Wilson run for 9 yds to the NoTex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
55.3%
Jeffery Wilson run for 6 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+8
56.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 8 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-12
57.6%
Mason Fine sacked by John Voit for a loss of 12 yards to the NoTex 31Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 22
OWN 31
+1
54.8%
Mason Fine run for 1 yd to the NoTex 32Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 21
OWN 32
+15
53.2%
ARMY Penalty, personal foul (Elijah Riley) to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+48
57.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 48 yds to the Army 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
59.4%
Jeffery Wilson run for 2 yds to the Army 3Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
59.4%
Jeffery Wilson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Army 8Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
75.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 8 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
68.7%
Fred Cooper Jr. run for 3 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+2
68.4%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+3
69.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
69.7%
Nick Schrage punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
74.8%
Jeffery Wilson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
74.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 28Similar
Q3 5:09
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
73.6%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:09
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
72.5%
Blake Patterson punt for 30 yds, downed at the Army 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 3:5830% → 55%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
69.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+3
69.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+22
68.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 22 yds to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
65.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the NoTex 30Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+14
65.9%
Jordan Asberry run for 14 yds to the NoTex 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
65.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 8 yds to the NoTex 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+6
68.2%
Andy Davidson run for 6 yds to the NoTex 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
45.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 4:3856% → 87%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
56.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 10 yds to the NoTex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
56.5%
Jeffery Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+8
56.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Caleb Chumley for 8 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
59.0%
Nic Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 37Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+13
56.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
50
+9
60.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 9 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+12
61.3%
Nic Smith run for 12 yds to the Army 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
62.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Quinetin Jackson for 9 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+11
62.5%
Nic Smith run for 11 yds to the Army 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
62.5%
Nic Smith run for 6 yds to the Army 3Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
86.9%
Nic Smith run for 3 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:5920% → 58%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
79.9%
Fred Cooper Jr. run for 6 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
78.7%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
79.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
78.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the Army 38Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+23
78.6%
Kjetil Cline run for 23 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
75.9%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-1
73.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 36Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+3
76.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+24
78.4%
John Trainor run for 24 yds to the NoTex 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
73.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the NoTex 4Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
41.8%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 0:5257% → 93%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
57.1%
Nic Smith run for 3 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
57.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+68
92.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 68 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5013% → 59%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
87.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 9 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+33
84.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 33 yds to the NoTex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
81.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+1
80.3%
John Trainor run for 1 yd to the NoTex 29Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+28
86.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to John Trainor for 27 yds to the NoTex 2 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, roughing passer (T.J. Tauaalo) to the NoTex 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.5%
Andy Davidson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21FG
16 plays · 46 yds · 1:1859% → 95%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
59.1%
Mason Fine run for 1 yd to the NoTex 33Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
59.1%
Mason Fine run for 4 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+6
55.9%
Mason Fine run for 6 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
60.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
58.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Turner Smiley, broken up by Elijah RileySimilar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+5
55.9%
ARMY Penalty, offside defense (James Nachtigal) to the NoTex 48Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+14
59.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 14 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
62.4%
Mason Fine run for 6 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+10
66.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 10 yds to the Army 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+39
95.4%
Trevor Moore 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:23
Andy Davidson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)
-44.8
TD · Q4 3:13
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 68 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
+35.2
TD · Q4 4:05
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)
-31.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com