What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:58 · Charlie Scott punt for 31 yds, downed at the Army 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
TD · Q2 6:18: Kell Walker run for 27 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK) — ARMY win probability +11.6 pts (now 57%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:53: Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd to the Army 24 — ARMY win probability +7.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
KEY PLAY · Q3 11:32: Ahmad Bradshaw run for 20 yds to the Army 25 for a 1ST down — ARMY win probability +6.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
KEY PLAY · Q3 0:50: Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 28 — ARMY win probability +11.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
KEY PLAY · Q4 9:42: Darnell Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the Army 22 — ARMY win probability +12.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
Q1 7:28AF4th & 7 at ARMY 30, down 7
Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.8% before the snap
Go for it
64.7%−<0.1
37% to convert
Field goalTheir call
64.8%
56% to make
Punt
64.5%−0.3
average punt
Q2 14:56ARMY4th & 5 at AF 13, up 7
Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.8% before the snap
Go for it
40.5%−0.2
39% to convert
Field goalTheir call
40.7%
85% to make
Punt
37.3%−3.4
average punt
Q2 13:43AF4th & 12 at ARMY 47, down 7
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
Go for it
58.6%−0.9
23% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
59.5%
average punt
Q2 6:18AF4th & 1 at AF 34, down 14
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.2% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
44.6%
71% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
Punt
43.9%−0.7
average punt
Q2 6:18AF4th & 26 at AF 34, down 14
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
Go for it
41.1%−2.4
7% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
43.5%
average punt
Q3 15:00AF4th & 5 at AF 49, down 14
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
Go for it
38.6%−<0.1
41% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
38.6%
average punt
Q3 11:32ARMY4th & 3 at AF 21, up 14
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.2% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
69.0%
51% to convert
Field goal
68.2%−0.8
74% to make
Punt
59.5%−9.5
average punt
Q4 15:00AF4th & 3 at ARMY 33, down 14
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.5% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
20.9%
53% to convert
Field goal
19.5%−1.4
49% to make
Punt
18.5%−2.4
average punt
Q4 15:00AF4th & 1 at ARMY 16, down 14
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.4% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
21.1%
71% to convert
Field goal
18.9%−2.3
81% to make
Punt
11.8%−9.3
average punt
Q4 1:58AF4th & 14 at AF 21, down 21
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
Go for it
0.6%−<0.1
17% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
0.7%
average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
Q1 12:21ARMYTouchdown, up 6 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
32.8%
97% to make
Go for two
32.8%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q2 6:18ARMYTouchdown, up 13 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
54.4%
97% to make
Go for two
54.3%−0.1
45% to convert
Q4 1:58ARMYTouchdown, up 20 before the try
Close callKicked · made
KickTheir call
99.1%−<0.1
97% to make
Go for two
99.1%
45% to convert
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