Try the model
DUKE

Duke 16 at Army 21

ARMY
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Michie Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:11 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+22.5+11.30−11.3−22.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 10:58: Kell Walker run for no gain to the Army 36 — ARMY win probability +7.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:20: Ahmad Bradshaw run for 18 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK) — ARMY win probability +13.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:56: Brittain Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed), (Two-Point Conversion failed) — DUKE win probability +9.4 pts (now 44%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:24: Timeout DUKE, clock 04:24 — ARMY win probability +17.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:24: Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Army 39 — ARMY win probability +6.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00ARMY 4th & 2 at DUKE 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    42.1%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    42.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:35DUKE 4th & 4 at ARMY 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.2%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    55.1%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:40DUKE 4th & 29 at DUKE 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−1.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:23ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 34, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  5. Q3 14:49DUKE 4th & 13 at ARMY 30, down 11
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.5%−1.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    28.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:52ARMY 4th & 1 at midfield, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.3%−2.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:52DUKE 4th & 5 at ARMY 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    27.5%−0.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    26.7%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q4 4:15ARMY 4th & 3 at DUKE 3, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.9%−2.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    69.9%−15.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 4:15DUKE 4th & 18 at DUKE 20, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−1.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2DUKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 2:11ARMY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:20ARMY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:53DUKE Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:56DUKE Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    36.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARMYDrive 1DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
36.9%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
36.9%
Darnell Woolfolk run for no gain to the Army 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+5
36.9%
Calen Holt run for 5 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+1
36.9%
Connor Slomka run for 1 yd to the Duke 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 4:1163% → 62%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
37.5%
T.J. Rahming run for 3 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+5
37.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+4
37.5%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
37.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Chambers for 18 yds to the Army 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
37.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 15 yds to the Army 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
37.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Army 7Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
37.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Army 4Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
37.5%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
38.4%
Austin Parker 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 3TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 6:1739% → 45%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
38.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+19
38.7%
Andy Davidson run for 19 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
39.2%
Andy Davidson run for 8 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+7
39.4%
Andy Davidson run for 7 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
39.4%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Edgar Cerenord) to the Duke 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
39.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 4 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+6
39.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the Duke 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
39.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the Duke 8Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+3
39.7%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Duke 5Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+2
39.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Duke 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
44.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT RETURN TD
8 plays · -1 yds · 2:3157% → 49%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
43.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
43.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 3 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+15
43.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 15 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
42.3%
Daniel Jones sacked by James Nachtigal for a loss of 10 yards to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 20
OWN 30
+4
43.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 4 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 34
-13
44.9%
Daniel Jones sacked by John Voit for a loss of 13 yards to the Duke 21 DUKE Penalty, intentional grounding (Daniel Jones) to the Duke 21Similar
Q2 14:40
4TH & 29
OWN 21
+25
51.2%
Austin Parker punt , Javhari Bourdeau returns for 25 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5FUMBLE
10 plays · 51 yds · 0:0050% → 52%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
50.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 16Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+7
50.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 7 yds to the Duke 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
50.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 11 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
49.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 11 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
49.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by John VoitSimilar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
49.4%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+9
49.5%
Jones, D pass incomplete to Rahming, T.J. (Riley, Elijah), PENALTY ARMY pass interference (Riley, Elijah) 9 yards to the ARMY43, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
48.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 10 yds to the Army 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-4
48.1%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 36 Daniel Jones fumbled, recovered by Army Rhyan EnglandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 2:3855% → 70%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
55.4%
Kell Walker run for no gain to the Army 36Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
55.1%
John Trainor run for 1 yd to the Army 37Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+42
54.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Kell Walker for 42 yds to the Duke 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
56.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+18
69.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 18 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 4:2332% → 41%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
68.0%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+3
68.0%
Johnathan Lloyd run for 3 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+5
68.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 5 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
67.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 7 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+22
66.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 22 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
66.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 17 yds to the Army 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
64.9%
T.J. Rahming pass incomplete to Chris Taylor, broken up by James GibsonSimilar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+12
65.3%
Daniel Jones run for 12 yds to the Army 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
64.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 6 yds to the Army 10Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+6
64.9%
Daniel Jones run for 6 yds to the Army 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
59.0%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 2:2463% → 67%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
63.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the Army 21Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+4
63.0%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+2
64.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
65.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 4 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+4
65.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 2
OWN 35
-1
65.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 34Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 3
OWN 34
+3
67.4%
Nick Schrage punt for 38 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for 3 yds to the Duke 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9INT
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0031% → 33%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
68.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 8 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 2
OWN 39
0
66.6%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted Elijah Riley return for no gain to the Army 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
69.2%
Kell Walker run for 2 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+3
69.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11DOWNS
11 plays · 27 yds · 0:0035% → 32%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
65.5%
Brittain Brown run for 4 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
64.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel Helm, broken up by James GibsonSimilar
Q3 14:49
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+15
65.3%
ARMY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (James Gibson) to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
64.4%
Brittain Brown run for 5 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+4
62.9%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q3 14:49
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+2
64.1%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
62.9%
Brittain Brown run for 2 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
62.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q3 14:49
3RD & 8
OPP 25
-5
64.8%
Daniel Jones sacked by Elijah Riley and Raymond Wright for a loss of 5 yards to the Army 30Similar
Q3 14:49
4TH & 13
OPP 30
0
67.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel HelmSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12FUMBLE
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0071% → 73%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
71.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+5
72.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Army 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
72.8%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+3
72.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
71.8%
Connor Slomka run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:52
4TH & 1
50
+3
70.8%
John Trainor run for 3 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
73.1%
Jordan Asberry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 11
OPP 48
0
72.9%
Kell Walker run for no gain to the Duke 48 Kell Walker fumbled, recovered by Duke Victor DimukejeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13TD
16 plays · 52 yds · 10:5632% → 44%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-15
68.0%
DUKE Penalty, personal foul (Joe Giles-Harris) to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+10
67.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 10 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
69.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 11 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
68.4%
Daniel Jones run for 7 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 3
OPP 49
0
67.0%
Daniel Jones run for no gain to the Army 49Similar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
67.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
67.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan Lloyd, broken up by Rhyan EnglandSimilar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+2
67.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 2 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q3 10:52
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+5
69.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 5 yds to the Army 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
65.7%
Jones, D pass incomplete to Fuller, K, PENALTY ARMY holding (England, Rhyan) 10 yards to the ARMY19, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
65.7%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the Army 15Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+4
65.7%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the Army 11Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+5
67.2%
Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the Army 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
65.7%
Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the Army 1Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
65.7%
Daniel Jones run for no gain to the Army 1Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.4%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed), (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14MISSED FG
22 plays · 75 yds · 10:3365% → 87%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
65.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 4 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+4
65.6%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+5
64.8%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
65.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+7
67.7%
Andy Davidson run for 7 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
68.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+7
69.2%
Andy Davidson run for 7 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
69.4%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+6
69.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
70.4%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+16
70.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, personal foul (Joe Giles-Harris) to the Duke 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
70.4%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 7 yds to the Duke 6Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+2
70.4%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Duke 4Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+1
68.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the Duke 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
70.4%
ARMY Penalty, delay of game (Ahmad Bradshaw) to the Duke 8Similar
Q4 14:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
70.4%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Duke 4Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
70.4%
ARMY Penalty, false start (Quinten Parker) to the Duke 9Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
70.4%
Kell Walker run for 4 yds to the Duke 5Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
68.8%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Duke 3Similar
Q4 4:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+4
86.7%
Blake Wilson 20 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by null Bryon Fields Jr. return for 4 yds to the Duke 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0020% → 17%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
80.5%
ARMY Penalty, (5 Yards) to the Duke 22Similar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 5
OWN 22
-2
79.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 20Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+8
80.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 8 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
79.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Rhyan EnglandSimilar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-8
80.6%
Daniel Jones sacked by Elijah Riley for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 20Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 18
OWN 20
0
82.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris Taylor, broken up by Kenneth BrinsonSimilar
Q4 4:15
4TH & 18
OWN 20
0
82.9%
Austin Parker punt for 43 yds, downed at the Army 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16END OF GAME
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:1390% → 92%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
89.6%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+10
91.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 10 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
92.6%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-2
92.9%
Darnell Woolfolk run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 8
OPP 49
-1
91.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:24
Timeout DUKE, clock 04:24
+17.8
TD · Q2 8:20
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 18 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)
+13.1
TD · Q4 14:56
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed), (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com