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ARMY

Army 49 at Rice 12

RICE
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Rice Stadium
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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:55 · Nick Schrage punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rice 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 142Home team on offense−55.4Pregame prior−4.9Score differential−36.5Garbage-time factor−15.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:00: Miklo Smalls pass intercepted for a TD Max Regan return for 48 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK) — ARMY win probability +1.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:15: Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK) — ARMY win probability +2.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 1:53: Kell Walker run for 23 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK) — ARMY win probability +5.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:02: Kell Walker run for 47 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK) — ARMY win probability +5.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:43: Emmanuel Esukpa run for 22 yds for a TD, (Haden Tobola PAT BLOCKED) — RICE win probability +2.4 pts (now 5%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ARMY made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00RICE 4th & 10 at RICE 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:43ARMY 4th & 1 at RICE 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    76.4%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:33RICE 4th & 2 at ARMY 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    24.9%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:41ARMY 4th & 7 at ARMY 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:56RICE 4th & 7 at ARMY 46, down 28
    Close callPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    12.1%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:00ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 45, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    90.1%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:02RICE 4th & 8 at RICE 37, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:26ARMY 4th & 4 at ARMY 44, up 35
    Close callPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:41RICE 4th & 13 at RICE 43, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00ARMY 4th & 2 at ARMY 33, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:49RICE 4th & 1 at ARMY 25, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:43ARMY 4th & 1 at RICE 27, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00ARMY 4th & 2 at RICE 32, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:55ARMY 4th & 12 at ARMY 23, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ARMY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 3:00ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:15ARMY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:53ARMY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:56ARMY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:02ARMY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:43RICE Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    2.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:18ARMY Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:36ARMY Touchdown, up 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:55RICE Touchdown, down 37 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICEDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
17.7%
Jordan Myers run for 3 yds to the Rice 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
17.7%
Miklo Smalls pass complete to Austin Walter for no gain to the Rice 16Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+11
17.7%
Miklo Smalls pass complete to Robby Wells III for 11 yds to the Rice 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
17.7%
Miklo Smalls pass incomplete to Jordan Myers, broken up by James NachtigalSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-6
17.7%
Miklo Smalls sacked by Alex Aukerman for a loss of 6 yards to the Rice 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 21
+6
17.7%
Miklo Smalls run for 6 yds to the Rice 27Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 27
+14
17.7%
Jack Fox punt for 36 yds , Mike Reynolds returns for 14 yds to the Rice 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2INT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
19.1%
John Trainor run for 6 yds to the Rice 43Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+1
19.1%
Andy Davidson run for 1 yd to the Rice 42Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+2
19.1%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Rice 40Similar
Q1 11:43
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+2
19.2%
Connor Slomka run for 2 yds to the Rice 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
19.1%
Connor Slomka run for 2 yds to the Rice 36Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+5
19.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass intercepted Cole Thomas return for 5 yds to the Rice 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
20.9%
Jordan Myers run for 15 yds to the Rice 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
21.3%
Miklo Smalls pass incomplete to Jordan MyersSimilar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
21.1%
Jordan Myers run for 3 yds to the Rice 49Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+5
21.1%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 5 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
21.0%
Jack Fox punt for 35 yds, downed at the Army 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+17
21.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 17 yds to the Army 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
21.7%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
21.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for no gain to the Army 31Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
21.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
22.1%
Nick Schrage punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rice 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5INT TD
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:4023% → 21%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
23.0%
Austin Walter run for 6 yds to the Rice 33Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+4
23.4%
Jordan Myers run for 4 yds to the Rice 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
23.2%
Jordan Myers run for 4 yds to the Rice 41Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+48
21.4%
Miklo Smalls pass intercepted for a TD Max Regan return for 48 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
20.7%
Austin Walter run for no gain to the Rice 9 Austin Walter fumbled, recovered by Army Kenneth Brinson , return for 16 yds to the Rice 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7TD
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:3880% → 83%
Q1 2:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
19.7%
Andy Davidson run for 6 yds to the Rice 3Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
16.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
17.7%
Miklo Smalls run for 2 yds to the Rice 23 Miklo Smalls fumbled, forced by Max Regan, recovered by Army Max Regan , return for 4 yds to the Rice 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9TD
1 play · 23 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
12.6%
Kell Walker run for 23 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · 42 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
13.7%
Jordan Myers run for 18 yds to the Rice 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
14.2%
Jackson Tyner pass complete to Robby Wells III for 12 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
14.3%
Kylen Granson run for 11 yds to the Army 33 Kylen Granson fumbled, forced by Jaylon McClinton, recovered by Army Kenneth BrinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 1:0387% → 87%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+30
12.6%
Kell Walker run for 30 yds to the Rice 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+29
12.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 29 yds to the Rice 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
12.8%
Kell Walker run for 8 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0012% → 13%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
12.0%
Jordan Myers run for 5 yds to the Rice 23Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+4
12.3%
Austin Walter run for 4 yds to the Rice 27Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+1
11.9%
Jordan Myers run for 1 yd to the Rice 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+23
12.1%
Austin Trammell run for 23 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
12.9%
Jordan Myers run for 4 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-1
12.7%
Jordan Myers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 46Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
12.8%
Jackson Tyner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 7
OPP 46
+12
12.8%
Jack Fox punt for 37 yds , Mike Reynolds returns for 12 yds to the Army 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 3:5889% → 94%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
11.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 15 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
11.4%
Calen Holt run for 5 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
11.3%
Kell Walker run for 2 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+2
10.9%
Kell Walker run for 2 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+2
11.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
11.2%
Kell Walker run for 6 yds to the Rice 47Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+47
5.6%
Kell Walker run for 47 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.5%
Jackson Tyner pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
5.4%
Austin Walter run for 8 yds to the Rice 33Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
5.4%
Jordan Myers run for 2 yds to the Rice 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
5.6%
Jackson Tyner pass incomplete to Jordan MyersSimilar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-10
5.4%
RICE Penalty, Offensive holding (Robby Wells III) to the Rice 25Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+12
5.4%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 12 yds to the Rice 37Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
5.4%
Jackson Tyner pass incomplete to Aaron CephusSimilar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
5.4%
Jack Fox punt for 37 yds, fair catch by John Trainor at the Army 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
4.5%
ARMY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Army 21Similar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+17
4.5%
Calen Holt run for 2 yds to the Army 23 for a 1ST down RICE Penalty, personal foul (Zach Abercrumbia) to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
4.4%
Jordan Asberry run for 1 yd to the Army 39Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+1
4.4%
Andy Davidson run for 1 yd to the Army 40Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+4
4.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 4 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q2 4:26
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
4.9%
Nick Schrage punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 1:374% → 2%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
4.3%
Jackson Tyner pass complete to Parker Smith for 8 yds to the Rice 28Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+6
4.2%
Jackson Tyner run for 6 yds to the Rice 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
3.0%
Jackson Tyner pass incomplete to Aaron CephusSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+12
2.9%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 12 yds to the Rice 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-11
3.1%
Jackson Tyner sacked by Kenneth Brinson for a loss of 11 yards to the Rice 35Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 21
OWN 35
+2
2.9%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 2 yds to the Rice 37Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 19
OWN 37
+6
2.0%
Jackson Tyner run for 6 yds to the Rice 43Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
2.0%
Jack Fox punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
2.8%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Army 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
2.8%
Calen Holt run for 2 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
2.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
2.9%
Kell Walker run for 3 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+35
3.1%
Nick Schrage punt for 51 yds , Austin Trammell returns for 35 yds to the Army 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 3:062% → 5%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
2.3%
Jordan Myers run for 8 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+7
2.4%
Jordan Myers run for 7 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
2.4%
Jackson Tyner pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
2.4%
Jackson Tyner pass complete to Austin Walter for 9 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 1
OPP 25
0
2.5%
Jordan Myers run for no gain to the Army 25Similar
Q3 12:49
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+3
2.4%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 3 yds to the Army 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
4.8%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 22 yds for a TD, (Haden Tobola PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2597% → 99%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
2.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 14 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
2.8%
Calen Holt run for 6 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+6
2.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the Rice 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
2.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 13 yds to the Rice 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
2.7%
Kell Walker run for 5 yds to the Rice 31Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+1
2.6%
Kell Walker run for 1 yd to the Rice 30Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+3
2.8%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Rice 27Similar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
2.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Rice 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
2.6%
Jordan Asberry run for 16 yds to the Rice 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
2.6%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Rice 7Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
0.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
1.1%
Austin Walter run for 4 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
1.1%
Jackson Tyner pass incomplete to Austin WalterSimilar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 6
OPP 38
-10
1.1%
Austin Trammell run for a loss of 10 yards to the Army 48 Austin Trammell fumbled, forced by Alex Aukerman, recovered by Army Scott WashleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 22TD
15 plays · 52 yds · 7:4399% → 100%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
0.7%
Fred Cooper Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 47Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+8
0.7%
Fred Cooper Jr. run for 8 yds to the Rice 45Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+5
0.7%
Connor Slomka run for 5 yds to the Rice 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
0.7%
Luke Langdon run for 1 yd to the Rice 39Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+4
0.7%
Jordan Asberry run for 4 yds to the Rice 35Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+3
0.7%
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds to the Rice 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+3
0.7%
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds to the Rice 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
0.5%
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds to the Rice 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+7
0.5%
Donovan Franklin run for 7 yds to the Rice 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
0.5%
Calen Holt run for 2 yds to the Rice 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+6
0.5%
Luke Langdon run for 6 yds to the Rice 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+4
0.5%
Calen Holt run for 4 yds to the Rice 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
0.5%
Luke Langdon run for 4 yds to the Rice 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
0.5%
Calen Holt run for 2 yds to the Rice 1Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.3%
Luke Langdon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 23TD
7 plays · 92 yds · 2:410% → 0%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
0.2%
Jordan Myers run for 3 yds to the Rice 11Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+19
0.2%
Jackson Tyner pass complete to Lance Wright for 19 yds to the Rice 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
0.2%
Jackson Tyner pass incomplete to Austin WalterSimilar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
0.2%
Jackson Tyner run for 3 yds to the Rice 33Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+9
0.2%
Jackson Tyner pass complete to Aaron Cephus for 9 yds to the Rice 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
0.2%
Jackson Tyner pass complete to Aaron Cephus for 58 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Kjetil Cline for 9 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-5
0.2%
ARMY Penalty, false start (Fred Cooper Jr.) to the Army 29Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
0.2%
ARMY Penalty, false start (Donovan Franklin) to the Army 24Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-3
0.2%
Artice Hobbs run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 21Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+2
0.2%
Sandon McCoy run for 2 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q4 7:55
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
0.3%
Nick Schrage punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rice 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 25FUMBLE
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
0.1%
Jackson Tyner run for 15 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
0.2%
Jackson Tyner pass incomplete to Robby Wells IIISimilar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
0.1%
Jackson Tyner pass complete to Aaron Cephus for 20 yds Aaron Cephus fumbled, forced by Javhari Bourdeau, recovered by Army Ryan Velez , return for 4 yds to the Army 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 26END OF GAME
9 plays · 57 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
0.2%
Sandon McCoy run for 6 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+3
0.2%
Sandon McCoy run for 3 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
0.2%
Sandon McCoy run for 3 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
0.2%
ARMY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Army 39Similar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+13
0.2%
Sandon McCoy run for 13 yds to the Rice 48Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+7
0.2%
Sandon McCoy run for 7 yds to the Rice 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
0.2%
Sandon McCoy run for 6 yds to the Rice 35Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+22
0.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 22 yds to the Rice 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
0.1%
Sandon McCoy run for 2 yds to the Rice 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:02
Kell Walker run for 47 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)
-5.6
TD · Q1 1:53
Kell Walker run for 23 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)
-5.1
TD · Q1 2:15
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)
-2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com