Try the model
BUF

Buffalo 17 at Army 21

ARMY
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Michie Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+27.7ARMY 85.6%Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd for aTD, (Blake Wilson KICK)AWAY 17 - HOME 21 · Q4 4:53
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:53 · Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Pregame prior+3.6Home team on offense+14.8Garbage-time factor+9.9Score differential+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:42: Tyree Jackson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 48 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +5.3 pts (now 26%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. MISSED FG · Q2 1:50: Blake Wilson 28 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by TEAM N/A return for a loss of 8 yards to the Buff 20 BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Demone Harris) to the Buff 8 — BUF win probability +9.9 pts (now 38%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:55: Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK) — ARMY win probability +11.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 4:53: Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK) — ARMY win probability +27.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. SACK · Q4 4:53: Tyree Jackson sacked by Alex Aukerman for a loss of 14 yards to the Buff 11 — BUF win probability +11.6 pts (now 26%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 8 of 8BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:29BUF 4th & 3 at ARMY 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.2%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    15.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:49BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:53ARMY 4th & 20 at ARMY 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−0.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:33ARMY 4th & 2 at BUF 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    78.4%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    78.1%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:35ARMY 4th & 18 at ARMY 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−1.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:02ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.7%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:50ARMY 4th & 5 at BUF 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−4.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:53ARMY 4th & 8 at ARMY 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:48BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−3.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:53ARMY 4th & 1 at BUF 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    46.0%−5.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−29.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:53BUF 4th & 13 at BUF 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:28ARMY 4th & 5 at ARMY 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.9%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:58ARMY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:46BUF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:42BUF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:55ARMY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:53ARMY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1FG
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:3113% → 14%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
87.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
87.2%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+11
87.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 11 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+52
87.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 52 yds to the Army 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
87.2%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Army 8Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+4
87.2%
JACKSON, Tyree rush for no gain to the ARMY8 (Washle, Scott;Christiansen, C), PENALTY ARMY OFF (Gibson, James) 4 yards to the ARMY4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 4
0
87.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi Holsey, broken up by Mike ReynoldsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
87.2%
Tyree Jackson run for no gain to the Army 4Similar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
85.9%
Adam Mitcheson 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 4:2186% → 86%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
86.0%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+2
86.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+4
86.0%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
86.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+52
86.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 52 yds to the Buff 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
86.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the Buff 3Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
86.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
85.3%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 4 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+7
85.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 7 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
85.2%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 6 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
84.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
85.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
85.3%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by John Trainor at the Army 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
84.8%
Kell Walker run for 8 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
85.0%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Army 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
84.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Jordan Asberry for 18 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-12
85.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 46 ARMY Penalty, personal foul (Bryce Holland) to the Army 39Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 22
OWN 39
+3
84.8%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 19
OWN 42
-1
84.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Calen Holt for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 41Similar
Q1 4:53
4TH & 20
OWN 41
0
84.4%
Nick Schrage punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jacob Martinez at the Buff 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 1:2116% → 19%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
83.6%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+2
83.5%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+75
80.6%
Tyree Jackson run for 75 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
81.8%
Kell Walker run for 1 yd to the Buff 42Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+6
81.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+1
81.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 14:33
4TH & 2
OPP 35
0
81.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Jermaine AdamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:4421% → 26%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
78.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 17 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
73.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 48 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
73.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 19Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 7
OWN 19
-5
73.1%
ARMY Penalty, false start (Joshua Boylan) to the Army 14Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 12
OWN 14
-5
73.0%
ARMY Penalty, delay of game (Ahmad Bradshaw) to the Army 9Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 17
OWN 9
-1
72.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 8Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 18
OWN 8
0
72.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Jordan Asberry, broken up by Cameron LewisSimilar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 18
OWN 8
0
72.0%
Nick Schrage punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9FUMBLE
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
70.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 41 Emmanuel Reed fumbled, recovered by Army Alex Aukerman , return for 5 yds to the Army 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10END OF HALF
19 plays · 35 yds · 8:3071% → 59%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
71.2%
John Trainor run for 2 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+3
71.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+2
70.9%
John Trainor run for 2 yds to the Army 48Similar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+4
70.6%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
71.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 9 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+6
72.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
72.7%
Andy Davidson run for 1 yd to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
72.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+15
71.6%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 15 yds to the Buff 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
72.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 6
OPP 13
-1
72.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 14 Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled, forced by Khalil Hodge, recovered by Army Rick KurzSimilar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+2
71.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Buff 12Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+36
61.9%
Blake Wilson 28 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by TEAM N/A return for a loss of 8 yards to the Buff 20 BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Demone Harris) to the Buff 8Similar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
62.2%
Tyree Jackson run for 5 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+14
62.0%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 14 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
61.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 12 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
58.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
59.3%
Tyree Jackson run for 4 yds to the Buff 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
57.1%
Kell Walker run for 12 yds to the Army 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
57.6%
John Trainor run for no gain to the Army 26Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
57.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
56.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Glen CoatesSimilar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
55.5%
Nick Schrage punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12FUMBLE
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
52.7%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 5 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+4
52.7%
Tyree Jackson run for 4 yds to the Army 48Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+3
53.2%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
52.5%
Tyree Jackson run for 7 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+23
52.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 23 yds to the Army 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
52.1%
Tyree Jackson run for 1 yd to the Army 14Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 9
OPP 14
-2
52.1%
Tyree Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 16Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 11
OPP 16
-8
53.1%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Jaylon McClinton for a loss of 8 yards to the Army 21 Tyree Jackson fumbled, recovered by Army Andrew McLean , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13TD
16 plays · 79 yds · 8:1247% → 64%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
47.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Kell WalkerSimilar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+9
47.0%
Kell Walker run for 9 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+5
47.2%
Calen Holt run for 5 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
47.8%
Calen Holt run for 2 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+17
48.2%
Kell Walker run for 17 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
50.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
50.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Kjetil ClineSimilar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+6
50.3%
Kell Walker run for 6 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
52.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+10
52.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 10 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
52.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+12
52.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 12 yds to the Buff 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
52.3%
Calen Holt run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 7Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
52.3%
Kell Walker run for 3 yds to the Buff 4 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Khalil Hodge) to the Buff 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
52.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd to the Buff 1Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0046% → 44%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
53.7%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+12
53.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 12 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
52.2%
Johnathan Hawkins run for no gain to the Buff 36Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
53.0%
Anthony Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 36Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
54.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Jamarl EilandSimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
56.2%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 30 yds, fair catch by John Trainor at the Army 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 7:2153% → 86%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
53.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+2
56.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+6
55.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+22
57.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 7 yds to the ARMY 46 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Cameron Lewis) to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
60.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 4 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+5
60.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+3
57.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Buff 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
60.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 7 yds to the Buff 12Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+4
60.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Buff 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
60.7%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Buff 6Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
60.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for no gain to the Buff 6Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
57.9%
Kell Walker run for 5 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q4 4:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.6%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0026% → 23%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-14
74.1%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Alex Aukerman for a loss of 14 yards to the Buff 11Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 24
OWN 11
+11
74.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 11 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
76.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Tyler Mabry, broken up by James NachtigalSimilar
Q4 4:53
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
77.3%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 41 yds, downed at the Army 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17END OF GAME
11 plays · 16 yds · 0:4687% → 90%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
87.0%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+3
88.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-2
88.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 13 yds to the ARMY 45 ARMY Penalty, illegal block (Rick Kurz) to the Army 40Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+2
88.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+15
89.1%
Nick Schrage run for 15 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
91.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 44Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 11
OPP 44
-2
91.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 13
OPP 46
-1
89.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:53
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)
+27.7
TD · Q4 14:55
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)
+11.8
SACK · Q4 4:53
Tyree Jackson sacked by Alex Aukerman for a loss of 14 yards to the Buff 11
-11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com