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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreBUF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:28 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:42: Tyree Jackson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 48 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +5.3 pts (now 26%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- MISSED FG · Q2 1:50: Blake Wilson 28 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by TEAM N/A return for a loss of 8 yards to the Buff 20 BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Demone Harris) to the Buff 8 — BUF win probability +9.9 pts (now 38%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:55: Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK) — ARMY win probability +11.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q4 4:53: Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK) — ARMY win probability +27.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- SACK · Q4 4:53: Tyree Jackson sacked by Alex Aukerman for a loss of 14 yards to the Buff 11 — BUF win probability +11.6 pts (now 26%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 8 of 8BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 11:29BUF 4th & 3 at ARMY 4, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 16.3% before the snapGo for it16.3%45% to convertField goalTheir call16.2%−0.193% to makePunt15.7%−0.5average punt
- Q1 6:49BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 41, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snapGo for it16.9%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.0%average punt
- Q1 4:53ARMY 4th & 20 at ARMY 41, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snapGo for it81.8%−0.610% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.4%average punt
- Q2 14:33ARMY 4th & 2 at BUF 35, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call79.0%57% to convertField goal78.4%−0.645% to makePunt78.1%−0.9average punt
- Q2 11:35ARMY 4th & 18 at ARMY 8, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snapGo for it67.8%−1.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.0%average punt
- Q2 9:02ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 48, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call68.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt67.7%−0.4average punt
- Q2 1:50ARMY 4th & 5 at BUF 12, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.5% before the snapGo for it58.6%−0.138% to convertField goalTheir call58.7%86% to makePunt53.8%−4.9average punt
- Q3 14:53ARMY 4th & 8 at ARMY 28, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snapGo for it53.4%−0.833% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.2%average punt
- Q4 14:48BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 36, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snapGo for it42.6%−3.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.8%average punt
- Q4 4:53ARMY 4th & 1 at BUF 1, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call51.7%59% to convertField goal46.0%−5.794% to makePunt22.2%−29.5average punt
- Q4 4:53BUF 4th & 13 at BUF 22, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snapGo for it15.6%−1.719% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.2%average punt
- Q4 2:28ARMY 4th & 5 at ARMY 42, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.5%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt84.9%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 6:58ARMY Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.2%97% to makeGo for two83.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:46BUF Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.6%97% to makeGo for two21.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:42BUF Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call29.5%97% to makeGo for two29.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:55ARMY Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.8%97% to makeGo for two49.5%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 4:53ARMY Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.8%97% to makeGo for two74.2%−0.645% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBUFDrive 1FG10 plays · 73 yds · 3:3113% → 14%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+11
87.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 11 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+52
87.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 52 yds to the Army 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+4
87.2%
JACKSON, Tyree rush for no gain to the ARMY8 (Washle, Scott;Christiansen, C), PENALTY ARMY OFF (Gibson, James) 4 yards to the ARMY4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 4
0
87.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi Holsey, broken up by Mike ReynoldsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD9 plays · 73 yds · 4:2186% → 86%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
ARMYDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
84.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Jordan Asberry for 18 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-12
85.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 46 ARMY Penalty, personal foul (Bryce Holland) to the Army 39Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 19
OWN 42
-1
84.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Calen Holt for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 41Similar
Q1 4:53
4TH & 20
OWN 41
0
84.4%
Nick Schrage punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jacob Martinez at the Buff 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD3 plays · 82 yds · 1:2116% → 19%
ARMYDrive 6DOWNS5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7TD2 plays · 65 yds · 0:4421% → 26%
ARMYDrive 8PUNT7 plays · -8 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q2 11:35
3RD & 18
OWN 8
0
72.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Jordan Asberry, broken up by Cameron LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9FUMBLE1 play · -4 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
70.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 41 Emmanuel Reed fumbled, recovered by Army Alex Aukerman , return for 5 yds to the Army 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10END OF HALF19 plays · 35 yds · 8:3071% → 59%
Q2 9:02
2ND & 6
OPP 13
-1
72.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 14 Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled, forced by Khalil Hodge, recovered by Army Rick KurzSimilar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+36
61.9%
Blake Wilson 28 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by TEAM N/A return for a loss of 8 yards to the Buff 20 BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Demone Harris) to the Buff 8Similar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
61.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 12 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12FUMBLE8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q3 12:41
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+23
52.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 23 yds to the Army 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 11
OPP 16
-8
53.1%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Jaylon McClinton for a loss of 8 yards to the Army 21 Tyree Jackson fumbled, recovered by Army Andrew McLean , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13TD16 plays · 79 yds · 8:1247% → 64%
Q3 8:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
52.3%
Kell Walker run for 3 yds to the Buff 4 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Khalil Hodge) to the Buff 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0046% → 44%
ARMYDrive 15TD13 plays · 66 yds · 7:2153% → 86%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+22
57.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 7 yds to the ARMY 46 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Cameron Lewis) to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0026% → 23%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-14
74.1%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Alex Aukerman for a loss of 14 yards to the Buff 11Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 24
OWN 11
+11
74.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 11 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
76.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Tyler Mabry, broken up by James NachtigalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17END OF GAME11 plays · 16 yds · 0:4687% → 90%
Q4 3:03
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-2
88.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 13 yds to the ARMY 45 ARMY Penalty, illegal block (Rick Kurz) to the Army 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:53
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)
+27.7
TD · Q4 14:55
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)
+11.8
SACK · Q4 4:53
Tyree Jackson sacked by Alex Aukerman for a loss of 14 yards to the Buff 11
-11.6