2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreWVU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:00 · Rodney Anderson run for 6 yds to the WVirg 5 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:08: Rodney Anderson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +2.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:25: Kennedy McKoy run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Staley KICK) — WVU win probability +2.3 pts (now 8%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:56: Rodney Anderson run for 17 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +2.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:35: Rodney Anderson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +2.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:13: Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 14 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WVU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 7:08WVU 4th & 6 at OU 11, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.7% before the snapGo for it8.6%−<0.135% to convertField goalTheir call8.7%87% to makePunt8.2%−0.5average punt
- Q2 13:28OU 4th & 1 at WVU 15, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.1%71% to convertField goal90.5%−0.583% to makePunt88.9%−2.2average punt
- Q2 10:25WVU 4th & 1 at OU 1, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.6%59% to convertField goal5.4%−1.194% to makePunt2.6%−4.0average punt
- Q2 7:00OU 4th & 1 at WVU 11, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.6%71% to convertField goal89.9%−0.787% to makePunt88.1%−2.5average punt
- Q2 4:46WVU 4th & 7 at WVU 28, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snapGo for it6.0%−0.336% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.3%average punt
- Q2 1:53WVU 4th & 7 at WVU 28, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snapGo for it4.8%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.0%average punt
- Q4 14:40WVU 4th & 15 at WVU 30, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 12:28OU 4th & 4 at OU 41, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 8:00WVU 4th & 1 at OU 10, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%71% to convertField goal0.0%−0.188% to makePunt-0.2%−0.3average punt
- Q4 0:32OU 4th & 4 at WVU 7, up 28Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.141% to convertField goal100.0%91% to makePunt99.6%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8WVU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 14:11OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.5%97% to makeGo for two92.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:21OU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.2%97% to makeGo for two91.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:08OU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.9%97% to makeGo for two93.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:25WVU Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.2%97% to makeGo for two8.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:56OU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.1%97% to makeGo for two94.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:35OU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.7%97% to makeGo for two96.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:13OU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:59WVU Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.7%97% to makeGo for two0.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:13OU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:34WVU Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:25OU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:11WVU Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOUDrive 1TD3 plays · 70 yds · 0:3194% → 94%
WVUDrive 2FG15 plays · 64 yds · 6:526% → 7%
OUDrive 3TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2493% → 94%
WVUDrive 4FUMBLE10 plays · 63 yds · 3:547% → 8%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-13
93.4%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (David Sills V) to the WVirg 13Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+4
93.3%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to David Sills V for 4 yds to the WVirg 25Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+51
93.5%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to David Sills V for 51 yds David Sills V fumbled, forced by Parnell Motley, recovered by WVirg David Sills V for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
92.8%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ogbonnia Okoronkwo) to the Okla 19Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+6
92.4%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Gary Jennings for 6 yds to the Okla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+1
92.3%
Justin Crawford run for 1 yd to the Okla 11 Justin Crawford fumbled, recovered by Okla Ogbonnia Okoronkwo at the Okla 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5TD7 plays · 89 yds · 2:5293% → 95%
Q1 0:30
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+56
92.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Marquise Brown for 56 yds to the WVirg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 6TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:305% → 8%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+35
94.3%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Marcus Simms for 35 yds to the Okla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7TD11 plays · 44 yds · 4:0493% → 95%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+24
93.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 24 yds to the WVirg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
93.1%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Erick Wren) to the WVirg 30Similar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 20
OPP 30
+12
93.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 12 yds to the WVirg 18Similar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 0
OPP 5
-15
92.8%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dru Samia) to the WVirg 20 (Dru Samia ejected)Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
+17
94.9%
Rodney Anderson run for 17 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 0:576% → 6%
OUDrive 9TD3 plays · 64 yds · 0:4095% → 97%
Q2 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+63
94.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 62 yds to the OKLAHOMA 2 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Xavier Preston) to the WVirg 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:275% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11TD11 plays · 77 yds · 1:2897% → 99%
Q2 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+24
97.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dimitri Flowers for 24 yds to the WVirg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
97.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jeff Badet for 8 yds to the WVirg 41Similar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
98.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 11 yds to the WVirg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+8
98.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Marquise Brown for 8 yds to the WVirg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 14 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12FUMBLE2 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.5%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 8 yds to the WVirg 33 lat. to Gary Jennings for no gain Gary Jennings fumbled, recovered by Okla Parnell MotleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:541% → 1%
Q3 13:02
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
99.5%
Justin Crawford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 36 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Face Mask (16 yards) (Amani Bledsoe) to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
99.5%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Steven Parker) to the Okla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q3 11:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 14 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
99.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
99.6%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Elijah Battle) to the WVirg 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 18 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 16TD13 plays · 75 yds · 6:260% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17TD5 plays · 71 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
WVUDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 5 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Q4 14:40
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Billy Kinney punt for 35 yds, fair catch by CeeDee Lamb at the Okla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 2:07100% → 100%
Q4 12:28
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Austin Seibert punt for 31 yds, fair catch by David Sills V at the WVirg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 20TD19 plays · 72 yds · 6:060% → 0%
Q4 11:51
2ND & 17
OWN 21
+22
99.9%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to David Sills V for 22 yds to the WVirg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+23
99.9%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Gary Jennings for 8 yds to the OKLAHOMA 49 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Okla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
99.9%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Okla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 0
OPP 9
+5
99.9%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jordan Thomas) to the Okla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 0
OPP 8
+6
99.9%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chanse Sylvie) to the Okla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21DOWNS11 plays · 66 yds · 5:33100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:25
Kennedy McKoy run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Staley KICK)
-2.3
TD · Q2 5:56
Rodney Anderson run for 17 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
+2.3
TD · Q2 13:08
Rodney Anderson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
+2.1