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TTU

Texas Tech 27 at Texas 23

TEX
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2017 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreTTU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:27 · Michael Dickson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 193Pregame prior+3.3Home team on offense+10.2Garbage-time factor+3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:41: Daniel Young run for 9 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TEX win probability +12.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 10:06: Clayton Hatfield 34 yd FG GOOD — TTU win probability +3.7 pts (now 24%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:29: Nic Shimonek pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 13 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +18.7 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  4. TD · Q4 11:29: TEXAS TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (T.J. Vasher) to the TexTc 20 — TEX win probability +6.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:47: Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 16 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +68.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 8 of 14TTU made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 13:22TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:51TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:28TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 21, down 7
    Close callPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:40TEX 4th & 11 at TEX 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:20TEX 4th & 1 at TEX 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:49TTU 4th & 4 at TEX 14, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.4%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:40TEX 4th & 3 at TEX 44, down 3
    Close callPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:13TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 2, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:02TEX 4th & 1 at TTU 3, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.4%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    62.4%−2.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−7.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:07TEX 4th & 3 at TTU 3, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.5%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    56.6%−7.0
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:41TTU 4th & 13 at TTU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−1.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:01TEX 4th & 10 at TTU 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    74.0%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:09TEX 4th & 2 at TTU 2, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.4%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    70.2%−5.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:10TTU 4th & 7 at TEX 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    20.3%−0.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:06TTU 4th & 2 at TEX 16, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.0%−1.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−8.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 10:06TEX 4th & 9 at TTU 35, up 7
    Close callPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    75.9%−0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%−0.8
    average punt
  17. Q3 8:20TTU 4th & 9 at TTU 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−2.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  18. Q3 7:08TTU 4th & 22 at TTU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−4.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  19. Q3 6:28TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−1.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  20. Q3 4:42TTU 4th & 4 at TTU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  21. Q3 3:13TTU 4th & 7 at TEX 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−7.6
    average punt
  22. Q3 3:13TEX 4th & 2 at TTU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    77.8%−2.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    78.1%−2.2
    average punt
  23. Q4 14:23TEX 4th & 7 at TTU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    77.0%−7.5
    average punt
  24. Q4 11:29TEX 4th & 3 at TEX 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  25. Q4 9:05TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−1.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  26. Q4 8:27TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−1.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  27. Q4 7:00TTU 4th & 11 at TTU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−2.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TTU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 13:29TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:20TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:41TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:29TTU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.6%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:47TTU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3173% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
72.9%
Lil'Jordan Humphrey pass complete to Sam Ehlinger for 27 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
72.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 5 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+16
72.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Kendall Moore for 16 yds to the TexTc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
73.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 27 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
73.1%
McLane Carter pass complete to Keke Coutee for 4 yds to the TexTc 16Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+3
73.1%
McLane Carter pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 3 yds to the TexTc 19Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+13
73.2%
McLane Carter pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 13 yds to the TexTc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
73.1%
McLane Carter pass complete to Justin Stockton for 4 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-4
73.0%
Cameron Batson run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 32Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
73.1%
McLane Carter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
73.2%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.5%
Daniel Young run for 1 yd to the Texas 26Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
73.4%
Daniel Young run for 2 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
73.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
73.2%
Michael Dickson punt for 60 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
73.6%
Stockton, Justin rush over right end for 3 yards to the TTU15 (Davis, Davante), PENALTY TTU illegal shift 5 yards to the TTU7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 15
OWN 7
0
73.6%
McLane Carter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 15
OWN 7
+8
73.6%
McLane Carter pass complete to Keke Coutee for 8 yds to the TexTc 15Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+6
73.8%
McLane Carter run for 6 yds to the TexTc 21Similar
Q1 9:28
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
73.8%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
73.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 6 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 4
OWN 32
-5
74.0%
Buechele, Shane shovel pass complete to Heard, Jerrod for 13 yards to the UT45 (Fields, DaMarcus;Allen, Dakota), PENALTY UT illegal formation 5 yards to the UT27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
73.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jerrod Heard for no gain to the Texas 27Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 9
OWN 27
-2
73.5%
Shane Buechele sacked by Dakota Allen for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 25Similar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 11
OWN 25
+8
73.3%
Michael Dickson punt for 64 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 19 , Cameron Batson returns for 8 yds to the TexTc 33 TEXAS TECH Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 2:1726% → 31%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
73.9%
McLane Carter pass complete to Keke Coutee for 12 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
73.7%
Tre King run for 3 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+22
73.6%
McLane Carter pass complete to Keke Coutee for 22 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+41
73.1%
McLane Carter pass complete to Keke Coutee for 41 yds to the Texas 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
72.6%
Tre King run for 2 yds to the Texas 1Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.6%
McLane Carter pass complete to Antoine Wesley for no gain to the Texas 1Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.2%
McLane Carter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jerrod HeardSimilar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
70.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 9 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
70.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for no gain to the Texas 34Similar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
70.0%
Michael Dickson punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8FG
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:0830% → 33%
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
69.6%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Dylan Cantrell, broken up by Kris BoydSimilar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
69.7%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q1 1:57
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+17
70.1%
McLane Carter pass complete to Keke Coutee for 17 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+51
69.4%
McLane Carter pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 51 yds to the Texas 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
68.0%
McLane Carter run for 4 yds to the Texas 16Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+2
68.0%
McLane Carter run for 2 yds to the Texas 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
67.7%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+32
67.0%
Clayton Hatfield 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
68.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jerrod Heard for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 35Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
67.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Malcolm RoachSimilar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+9
67.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 9 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q2 14:40
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+54
68.1%
Michael Dickson punt for 53 yds, downed at the TEXAS 3 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (Damarcus Fields) to the TexTc 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
67.0%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Dylan Cantrell, broken up by DeShon ElliottSimilar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
67.1%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 10
OWN 2
0
67.7%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Dylan Cantrell, broken up by Kris BoydSimilar
Q2 13:13
4TH & 10
OWN 2
+7
68.1%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 45 yds , Reggie Hemphill-Mapps returns for 7 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11FG
15 plays · 37 yds · 4:3669% → 69%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
68.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lorenzo Joe for 6 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+1
69.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 1 yd to the TexTc 33Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+5
68.7%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
69.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan HumphreySimilar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
69.4%
Daniel Young run for 4 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+12
68.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Daniel Young for 12 yds to the TexTc 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
69.5%
Daniel Young run for 2 yds to the TexTc 10Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+7
69.5%
Reggie Hemphill-Mapps run for 7 yds to the TexTc 3Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 1
OPP 3
0
68.7%
Kyle Porter run for no gain to the TexTc 3Similar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+2
66.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the TexTc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
68.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 3Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
68.4%
John Burt pass incomplete to Sam EhlingerSimilar
Q2 8:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
66.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps, broken up by Jordyn BrooksSimilar
Q2 8:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
68.9%
Joshua Rowland 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0034% → 35%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.6%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Justin StocktonSimilar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
65.8%
Justin Stockton run for 19 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
63.8%
Justin Stockton run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 42Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+44
64.7%
McLane Carter pass intercepted Kris Boyd return for 44 yds to the TexTc 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13TD
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 6:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
77.2%
Daniel Young run for 9 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.7%
McLane Carter run for 1 yd to the TexTc 26Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
74.8%
McLane Carter pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 10 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-11
73.9%
McLane Carter sacked by Ta'Quon Graham for a loss of 11 yards to the TexTc 25Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 21
OWN 25
+8
75.1%
Tre King run for 8 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
75.5%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Dylan Cantrell, broken up by DeShon ElliottSimilar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
75.9%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 2:1376% → 76%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
75.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
75.4%
Toneil Carter run for 2 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+21
74.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
50
0
77.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 10
50
+9
77.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 9 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+4
76.9%
Toneil Carter run for 4 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
77.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Reggie Hemphill-MappsSimilar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
77.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Kendall MooreSimilar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
77.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Reggie Hemphill-MappsSimilar
Q2 2:01
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
75.6%
Michael Dickson punt for 29 yds, downed at the TexTc 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16INT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:1124% → 25%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
76.5%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+1
76.8%
Justin Stockton run for 1 yd to the TexTc 9Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+22
77.2%
Justin Stockton run for 22 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
75.3%
McLane Carter pass intercepted Davante Davis return for 14 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:3978% → 78%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+19
78.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Chris Warren III for 19 yds to the TexTc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.3%
Daniel Young run for no gain to the TexTc 1Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
78.5%
Daniel Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 2Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
76.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Chris Warren IIISimilar
Q2 0:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
78.2%
Joshua Rowland 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
80.2%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 4:5421% → 24%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
78.7%
McLane Carter run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexTc 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+40
79.0%
McLane Carter pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 40 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
76.7%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
76.8%
Justin Stockton run for 6 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 4
OPP 34
-3
79.9%
McLane Carter pass complete to Keke Coutee for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 37Similar
Q3 13:10
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+9
81.4%
McLane Carter pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 9 yds to the Texas 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
79.0%
Justin Stockton run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 31Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+7
79.8%
Carter, McLane slant pass incomplete to Batson, Cameron, PENALTY UT defensive pass interference (Davis, Antwuan) 7 yards to the UT24, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
79.0%
Justin Stockton run for 2 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+6
79.0%
McLane Carter pass complete to Justin Stockton for 6 yds to the Texas 16Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 2
OPP 16
0
79.9%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Keke Coutee, broken up by DeShon ElliottSimilar
Q3 10:06
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+34
76.1%
Clayton Hatfield 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
78.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 10 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
78.7%
Daniel Young run for 4 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+25
80.3%
Daniel Young run for 25 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
80.7%
Daniel Young run for 1 yd to the TexTc 35Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
81.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
80.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:06
4TH & 9
OPP 35
0
78.3%
TEXAS Penalty, delay of game ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 10:06
4TH & 9
OPP 35
0
78.3%
Michael Dickson punt for 34 yds, downed at the TexTc 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
78.6%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (T.J. Vasher) to the TexTc 1Similar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
78.6%
Demarcus Felton run for 1 yd to the TexTc 2Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
78.8%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 9
OWN 2
0
79.6%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 9
OWN 2
+55
80.2%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Reggie Hemphill-Mapps at the Texas 47 TEXAS Penalty, Offensive holding (Kris Boyd) to the Texas 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22FUMBLE
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
82.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jerrod Heard for 16 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
83.3%
Toneil Carter run for 4 yds to the TexTc 35 Toneil Carter fumbled, forced by Vaughnte Dorsey, recovered by TexTc Jordyn Brooks , return for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:0023% → 20%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
77.3%
Demarcus Felton run for 4 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-16
75.7%
McLane Carter sacked by Chris Nelson for a loss of 16 yards to the TexTc 23 TEXAS TECH Penalty, intentional grounding (McLane Carter) to the TexTc 23Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 22
OWN 23
0
79.1%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 22
OWN 23
0
79.7%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Reggie Hemphill-Mapps at the Texas 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0082% → 80%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
81.7%
Jerrod Heard run for 2 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
81.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan HumphreySimilar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
81.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Malcolm RoachSimilar
Q3 6:28
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
80.1%
Michael Dickson punt for 67 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4622% → 18%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
78.2%
Desmond Nisby run for 6 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
77.5%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Dylan Cantrell, broken up by Kris BoydSimilar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
78.6%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Quan Shorts, broken up by Kris BoydSimilar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+41
82.2%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 41 yds , Reggie Hemphill-Mapps returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 32 Reggie Hemphill-Mapps fumbled, recovered by TexTc Kisean AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 26MISSED FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1923% → 20%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
76.8%
Desmond Nisby run for 5 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
76.4%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Quentin Yontz, broken up by Breckyn HagerSimilar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 5
OPP 27
-2
77.9%
McLane Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 29Similar
Q3 3:13
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+47
79.9%
Clayton Hatfield 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 27FG
15 plays · 48 yds · 3:5083% → 88%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
82.8%
Daniel Young run for 2 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+2
82.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to John Burt for 2 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+19
82.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 19 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
84.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
84.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jerrod Heard for 6 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+2
83.9%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q3 3:13
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+2
83.0%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
84.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Armanti ForemanSimilar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
84.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 2 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 36
-5
87.6%
TEXAS Penalty, false start (Derek Kerstetter) to the TexTc 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+15
87.1%
Ehlinger, Sam deep pass incomplete to Johnson, Collin, PENALTY TTU defensive pass interference (Smith, Desmon) 15 yards to the TTU26, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
89.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin Johnson, broken up by Tony JonesSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
88.8%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
88.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:23
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+40
87.5%
Joshua Rowland 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 28TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5411% → 26%
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.2%
Desmond Nisby run for 1 yd to the TexTc 26Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
89.3%
Desmond Nisby run for no gain to the TexTc 26Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+12
89.6%
Nic Shimonek run for 12 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+52
88.3%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 52 yds to the Texas 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
86.0%
Demarcus Felton run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 13Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
67.3%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 13 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
74.0%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (T.J. Vasher) to the TexTc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
75.0%
Daniel Young run for 2 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-10
75.2%
Ehlinger, Sam left side pass complete to Foreman, Armanti for 11 yards to the UT37 (Parker, Justus), PENALTY UT offensive holding (Williams, Connor) 10 yards to the UT16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 18
OWN 16
+14
74.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for 14 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+1
74.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Kyle Porter for 1 yd to the Texas 31Similar
Q4 11:29
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
73.9%
Michael Dickson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
74.2%
Desmond Nisby run for 4 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
73.7%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
75.4%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q4 9:05
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
76.5%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Reggie Hemphill-Mapps at the Texas 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
76.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 5 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
78.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for 4 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-3
77.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 41Similar
Q4 8:27
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
75.7%
Michael Dickson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 32PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+15
73.6%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 15 yds to the TexTc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
73.0%
Nic Shimonek pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
73.3%
Demarcus Felton run for 4 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
73.9%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Keke Coutee, broken up by Kris BoydSimilar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 6
OWN 30
-5
75.4%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (Vaughnte Dorsey) to the TexTc 25Similar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
76.0%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Reggie Hemphill-Mapps at the Texas 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 33INT
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:0078% → 80%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
77.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 14 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
79.3%
Daniel Young run for 4 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
79.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jerrod Heard for no gain to the Texas 47Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+8
78.7%
Sam Ehlinger run for 8 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
80.6%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+4
80.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 4 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+55
80.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass intercepted Justus Parker return for 55 yds to the Texas 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 34TD
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:1929% → 92%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
71.3%
Nic Shimonek sacked by Poona Ford for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 16Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+16
8.1%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 16 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 35INT
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:4327% → 24%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
26.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lorenzo Joe for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
27.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+26
28.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 26 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
34.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Kyle Porter for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 42Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+2
23.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass intercepted Douglas Coleman III return for 2 yds to the TexTc 40 TEXAS Penalty, offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 36END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
6.8%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 19Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-1
7.1%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:47
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 16 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
-68.5
TD · Q4 11:29
Nic Shimonek pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 13 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
-18.7
TD · Q2 6:41
Daniel Young run for 9 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)
+12.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com