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BAY

Baylor 22 at TCU 45

TCU
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2017 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:31 · Connor Martin punt for 34 yds , Desmon White returns for no gain to the Bayl 44 Desmon White fumbled, recovered by TCU Desmon White
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 150Pregame prior+15.2Home team on offense+28.8Score differential+20.7Garbage-time factor+6.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:23: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 58 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +3.3 pts (now 9%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:32: Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 14 yds for a TD, (Cole Bunce KICK) — TCU win probability +3.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 9:56: Connor Martin 23 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +3.8 pts (now 14%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:39: Kenny Hill pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 30 yds for a TD, (Cole Bunce KICK) — TCU win probability +6.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:36: Kenny Hill run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Bunce KICK) — TCU win probability +3.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 8BAY made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:22TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 39, down 9
    Close callPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:53BAY 4th & 18 at BAY 44, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:04TCU 4th & 3 at TCU 21, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:33BAY 4th & 15 at BAY 28, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00BAY 4th & 11 at BAY 39, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:53BAY 4th & 17 at TCU 22, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:53TCU 4th & 13 at TCU 19, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:41TCU 4th & 3 at BAY 28, up 5
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.6%−0.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    85.9%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00BAY 4th & 1 at TCU 30, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.1%−1.7
    56% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:56BAY 4th & 6 at TCU 6, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−5.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:50TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 38, up 6
    Close callPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:40BAY 4th & 21 at BAY 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−2.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:33BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 29, down 13
    Close callPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:31BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 13, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:45TCU 4th & 1 at BAY 5, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    67% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.5%−0.5
    92% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−1.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:45BAY 4th & 17 at BAY 18, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:32TCU 4th & 9 at BAY 35, up 23
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:18TCU 4th & 11 at BAY 30, up 23
    Close callWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BAY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:26BAY Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:59TCU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:26TCU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:30TCU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:23BAY Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:32TCU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:39TCU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:36TCU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1SF
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:5096% → 96%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
95.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jalen Reagor for no gain to the TCU 8Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
95.5%
Kenny Hill sacked by Lenoy Jones Jr. for a loss of 8 yards for a SAFETY Kenny Hill fumbled, , return for 0 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2TD
3 plays · 60 yds · 0:375% → 5%
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
95.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Blake Lynch for 6 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+54
95.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Blake Lynch for 54 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
95.2%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
95.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Dylan Thomas for no gain to the TCU 35Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+4
95.2%
Kenny Hill run for 4 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
95.2%
Adam Nunez punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
94.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the Bayl 14Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+6
94.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 6 yds to the Bayl 25 Charlie Brewer fumbled, forced by Mat Boesen, recovered by TCU Nick Orr , return for 4 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:4895% → 94%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
94.9%
Hicks, Kyle rush for 7 yards to the BU18 (Jones Jr.,Lenoy), PENALTY TCU illegal formation 5 yards to the BU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+2
94.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 2 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+17
94.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 17 yds to the Bayl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
94.9%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the Bayl 11Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+7
94.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 7 yds to the Bayl 4Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
94.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds for a TD BAYLOR Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined, (Cole Bunce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
94.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
94.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+18
94.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jared Atkinson for 18 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
94.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+3
94.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 3 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-8
94.1%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Mat Boesen for a loss of 8 yards to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 18
OWN 44
+5
94.3%
Connor Martin punt for 47 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 5 yds to the TCU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
93.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 7 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+1
93.4%
Kenedy Snell run for 1 yd to the TCU 22Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 2
OWN 22
-1
93.3%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 21Similar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
93.2%
Andrew David punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
92.8%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-10
92.8%
Brewer,Charlie pass complete to Mims,Denzel for 9 yards to the BU44 (Gladney, Jeff), PENALTY BU holding (Lawrence,P.) 10 yards to the BU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 18
OWN 25
+3
92.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 3 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 15
OWN 28
0
93.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Trestan EbnerSimilar
Q1 4:33
4TH & 15
OWN 28
+8
93.1%
Connor Martin punt for 48 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 8 yds to the TCU 36 TCU Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the TCU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 2:2392% → 93%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
92.3%
KaVontae Turpin run for 18 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
92.6%
Hill, Kenny pass incomplete to Reagor, Jalen, PENALTY BU holding (Houston,Jameson) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN TCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
50
+33
92.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 33 yds to the Bayl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
92.9%
Hill, Kenny pass incomplete to Hicks, Kyle, PENALTY BU offside defense (Jacobs,Jamie) 5 yards to the BU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 5
OPP 12
0
92.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Cole Hunt, broken up by Chris MillerSimilar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 5
OPP 12
0
92.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+5
92.7%
Kenny Hill run for 5 yds to the Bayl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
92.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q1 2:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
92.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q1 0:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
92.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 7 yds for a TD, (Cole Bunce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:228% → 7%
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
92.5%
JaMycal Hasty run for 11 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
92.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Blake Lynch for 10 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
92.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+1
92.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 1 yd to the Bayl 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
92.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
92.6%
Connor Martin punt for 52 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 91 yds · 1:5992% → 95%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
91.8%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+26
91.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 26 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
91.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ty Slanina for 17 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
92.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 17 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
92.5%
Kenny Hill sacked by Brian Nance and Bravvion Roy for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+32
95.0%
Sewo Olonilua run for 32 yds for a TD, (Cole Bunce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12MISSED FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 2:376% → 5%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
94.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 13 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
94.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
50
-5
93.9%
Brewer,Charlie pass complete to Mims,Denzel for 50 yards to the TCU0, clock 10:39, PENALTY BU ineligible downfield on pass (Porter,Mo) 5 yards to the BU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+40
94.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Blake Lynch for 40 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
93.6%
Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the TCU 15Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-7
93.6%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Mat Boesen for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 22Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 17
OPP 22
0
94.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Jeff GladneySimilar
Q2 8:53
4TH & 17
OPP 22
+39
94.6%
Connor Martin 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-9
94.9%
Kenny Hill sacked by Ira Lewis for a loss of 9 yards to the TCU 13Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 19
OWN 13
0
94.8%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the TCU 13Similar
Q2 8:53
3RD & 19
OWN 13
+6
94.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 6 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q2 8:53
4TH & 13
OWN 19
0
94.6%
Adam Nunez punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:266% → 9%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
94.1%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Ty Summers for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 36Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+6
94.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Ishmail Wainright for 6 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+58
91.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 58 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
Q2 5:23
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-5
91.2%
Sedwick,Jay kickoff 58 yards to the TCU7, Reagor, Jalen return to the TCU28 (Hall,Davion), PENALTY BU offside 5 yards to the BU30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 2:2791% → 90%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
91.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 9 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 1
OWN 42
0
91.5%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the TCU 42Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+1
91.3%
Kenny Hill run for 1 yd to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+22
91.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 22 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
91.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
91.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 7 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 3
OPP 28
0
91.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q2 2:41
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+45
90.4%
Cole Bunce 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:4110% → 13%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
90.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+13
90.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 13 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
89.8%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Mat Boesen for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 38Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+23
90.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 23 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
89.2%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Ben Banogu for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 40Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+8
89.3%
Trestan Ebner run for 8 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+2
89.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 2 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+48
87.1%
Connor Martin 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.0%
Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the Bayl 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
86.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for no gain to the Bayl 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
86.6%
Charlie Brewer pass intercepted Ty Summers return for no gain to the Bayl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 33 yds · 1:2088% → 92%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
87.9%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 34Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+20
87.9%
Kenny Hill run for 20 yds to the Bayl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
91.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 14 yds for a TD, (Cole Bunce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19FG
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:3610% → 14%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
90.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 8 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+51
89.9%
Charlie Brewer run for 51 yds to the TCU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
89.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the TCU 6Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
89.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the TCU 6Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
89.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jared AtkinsonSimilar
Q3 9:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
85.7%
Connor Martin 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
88.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 7 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 3
OWN 39
-1
89.2%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 38Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
88.5%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Desmon WhiteSimilar
Q3 9:50
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
87.6%
Andrew David punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
86.3%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
86.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Ranthony TexadaSimilar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+12
86.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Marques Jones for 12 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
85.7%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-5
84.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Mo Porter) to the Bayl 35Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+25
86.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jared Atkinson for 25 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
84.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Blake LynchSimilar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
84.3%
Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the TCU 40Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-5
85.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Patrick Lawrence) to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 15
OPP 45
-6
86.3%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Mat Boesen for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 49Similar
Q3 8:40
4TH & 21
OWN 49
+1
87.0%
Connor Martin punt for 42 yds , Desmon White returns for 1 yd to the TCU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 90 yds · 3:1586% → 95%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
86.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd to the TCU 11Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+12
86.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for 12 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+24
86.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 24 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
88.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 9 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+4
88.3%
Sewo Olonilua run for 4 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
88.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 10 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
95.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 30 yds for a TD, (Cole Bunce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
93.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 8
OPP 0
0
91.4%
PENALTY BU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY TCU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+6
93.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Ishmail Wainright for 6 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 2
OWN 29
0
93.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jared AtkinsonSimilar
Q3 1:33
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
93.4%
Connor Martin punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 1:4496% → 99%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
95.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 29 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
96.0%
Hill, Kenny pass incomplete to Reagor, Jalen (Sells,Taion), PENALTY BU holding (Pitre,Jalen) 10 yards to the BU25, 1ST DOWN TCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
96.0%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the Bayl 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+5
96.0%
Hicks, Kyle rush for no gain to the BU24 (Williams,Jordan), PENALTY BU offside defense (Pitre,Jalen) 5 yards to the BU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+16
96.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ty Slanina for 16 yds to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.1%
Kenny Hill run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Bunce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
99.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Jared Atkinson for 6 yds to the Bayl 16Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 4
OWN 16
-3
99.1%
Zach Smith sacked by Mat Boesen and Joseph Broadnax Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 13Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
99.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Jared Atkinson, broken up by Ty SummersSimilar
Q4 13:31
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
99.1%
Connor Martin punt for 34 yds , Desmon White returns for no gain to the Bayl 44 Desmon White fumbled, recovered by TCU Desmon WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:2799% → 99%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
99.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 9 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 1
OPP 35
-6
99.2%
Ty Slanina run for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 41Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
99.1%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jarrison StewartSimilar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 7
OPP 41
+15
99.1%
Nunez, Adam punt 41 yards to the BU0, touchback, PENALTY BU roughing the kicker (Hall,Davion) 15 yards to the BU26, 1ST DOWN TCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
99.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for 8 yds to the Bayl 18Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+4
99.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for 4 yds to the Bayl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
99.2%
Kenny Hill run for 5 yds to the Bayl 9Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
99.2%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+4
99.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Cole Hunt for 4 yds to the Bayl 5Similar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+23
99.2%
Cole Bunce 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the Bayl 25Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JaMycal HastySimilar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-7
99.3%
Zach Smith sacked by Mat Boesen for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 18Similar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
99.3%
Connor Martin punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 4 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+4
99.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 4 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+4
99.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 4 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
99.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 8 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 2
OPP 28
-1
99.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 29Similar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 3
OPP 29
-6
99.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 35Similar
Q4 7:32
4TH & 9
OPP 35
0
99.3%
Adam Nunez punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 29INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
99.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 7 yds to the Bayl 10Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 3
OWN 10
+5
99.5%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
99.5%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Markell Simmons return for no gain to the Bayl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 30DOWNS
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
99.6%
Kenedy Snell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+3
99.6%
Kenedy Snell run for 3 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 9
OPP 28
-2
99.6%
Grayson Muehlstein run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 30Similar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 11
OPP 30
-2
99.5%
Stacy Boyd run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 31END OF GAME
1 play · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
99.5%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 9 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:39
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 30 yds for a TD, (Cole Bunce KICK)
+6.9
TD · Q3 12:32
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 14 yds for a TD, (Cole Bunce KICK)
+3.8
FG · Q3 9:56
Connor Martin 23 yd FG GOOD
-3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com