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ISU

Iowa State 23 at Baylor 13

BAY
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGFGFGEnd of GameFG-5.2BAY 25.9%Garrett Owens 22 yd FG GOODAWAY 20 - HOME 13 · Q3 6:25
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:25 · Garrett Owens 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Pregame prior−8.9Home team on offense−11.7Garbage-time factor−3.9Score differential−3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:59: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Ishmail Wainright for 13 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +2.2 pts (now 30%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:19: Zeb Noland pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 67 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ISU win probability +13.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 12:24: Connor Martin 47 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +5.4 pts (now 34%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:25: Garrett Owens 22 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +5.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 7:01: Garrett Owens 45 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +5.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 8 of 10ISU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:59BAY 4th & 1 at ISU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    34.1%−0.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    33.6%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:59ISU 4th & 10 at ISU 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:35BAY 4th & 15 at BAY 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:09BAY 4th & 1 at ISU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    35.9%−0.4
    81% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:50BAY 4th & 5 at ISU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−2.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:05ISU 4th & 7 at BAY 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−5.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:05BAY 4th & 22 at BAY 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−2.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:11ISU 4th & 7 at BAY 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    60.1%−0.5
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:39BAY 4th & 21 at BAY 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−2.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:58BAY 4th & 6 at ISU 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    31.1%−0.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:24BAY 4th & 10 at ISU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    28.5%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:24ISU 4th & 2 at BAY 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    61.8%−2.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    60.7%−3.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:25ISU 4th & 5 at BAY 5, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    52.6%−11.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:01BAY 4th & 1 at ISU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.5%−3.9
    56% to make
    Punt
    26.3%−6.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:18ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 11, up 7
    Close callPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:22BAY 4th & 7 at ISU 38, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    26.6%−1.3
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%−1.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:01ISU 4th & 10 at BAY 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−7.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:43ISU 4th & 1 at BAY 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    91.2%−1.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−4.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ISU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:59BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:09ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:19ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
26.8%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the IowSt 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-3
26.8%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Trever Ryen for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 20
+7
26.8%
David Montgomery run for 7 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
26.8%
Colin Downing punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:0428% → 30%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
27.7%
Charlie Brewer run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+41
27.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 41 yds to the IowSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
28.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+7
28.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 7 yds to the IowSt 15Similar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+2
27.9%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the IowSt 13Similar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+13
30.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Ishmail Wainright for 13 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
29.9%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the IowSt 18Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 9
OWN 18
-3
29.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 17 TEAM fumbled, recovered by IowSt David MontgomerySimilar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
30.0%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Marchie Murdock, broken up by Grayland ArnoldSimilar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
30.1%
Colin Downing punt for 34 yds, downed at the Bayl 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
31.7%
Jared Atkinson run for 8 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 2
OPP 43
-2
31.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 45Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 4
OPP 45
-11
31.6%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Joel Lanning for a loss of 11 yards to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 9:35
4TH & 15
OWN 44
0
30.9%
Connor Martin punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:4968% → 70%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
32.3%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 3 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+12
32.1%
David Montgomery run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
50
0
31.8%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 10
50
+5
32.0%
David Montgomery run for 5 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+9
31.9%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 9 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
30.0%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Allen Lazard for 36 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6FG
20 plays · 74 yds · 7:1931% → 36%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
30.9%
John Lovett run for 13 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
31.0%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+3
31.1%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+5
31.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jordan Feuerbacher for 5 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
31.4%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+8
31.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jordan Feuerbacher for 8 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
31.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Blake LynchSimilar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
31.7%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+9
31.5%
Charlie Brewer run for 9 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
31.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Blake Lynch for 9 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+3
32.0%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
32.0%
John Lovett run for no gain to the IowSt 25Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
32.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jordan Feuerbacher for 3 yds to the IowSt 22Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+6
31.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 6 yds to the IowSt 16Similar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
31.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the IowSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
36.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the IowSt 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+1
36.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd to the IowSt 9Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
35.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Ishmail WainrightSimilar
Q2 13:50
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+27
36.3%
Connor Martin 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7FG
18 plays · 64 yds · 5:4564% → 65%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
36.2%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 22Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
36.3%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Trever RyenSimilar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+16
36.9%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Allen Lazard for 16 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
35.4%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the IowSt 39Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
35.4%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Trever RyenSimilar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+17
35.9%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 17 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
34.6%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
34.6%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the Bayl 44Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+14
35.2%
Zeb Noland pass complete to David Montgomery for 14 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
34.0%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+7
33.9%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Trever Ryen for 7 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
37.2%
Joel Lanning run for 2 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
36.5%
Joel Lanning run for 3 yds to the Bayl 16Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
36.5%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Marchie Murdock, broken up by Grayland ArnoldSimilar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
37.3%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Marchie Murdock, broken up by Jalen PitreSimilar
Q2 8:05
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+34
35.2%
Garrett Owens 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
39.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 19Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-8
38.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for a loss of 8 yards to the Bayl 11Similar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 24
OWN 11
+2
37.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 2 yds to the Bayl 13Similar
Q2 8:05
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
37.4%
Connor Martin punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Allen Lazard at the Bayl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
34.3%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
34.3%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
34.6%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Allen Lazard, broken up by Greg RobertsSimilar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
35.9%
Colin Downing punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Pooh Stricklin at the Bayl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 2:4640% → 41%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-3
40.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 11Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 13
OWN 11
+19
40.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 19 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
40.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+8
40.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for 8 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
41.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 38Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 12
OWN 38
-5
40.8%
Brewer,Charlie pass complete to Lynch,Blake for 18 yards to the ISU44 (Harvey, Willie), PENALTY BU ineligible downfield on pass (Newman,Xavier) 5 yards to the BU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 17
OWN 33
0
40.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jared AtkinsonSimilar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 17
OWN 33
-4
39.2%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Willie Harvey for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 2:39
4TH & 21
OWN 29
0
40.5%
Connor Martin punt for 38 yds , Allen Lazard returns for no gain to the IowSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11TD
1 play · 67 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
27.2%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 67 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 1:2130% → 30%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
29.9%
Charlie Brewer run for 11 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
30.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 15 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
32.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
32.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+4
30.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 4 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
29.8%
Connor Martin punt for 22 yds, fair catch by Allen Lazard at the IowSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
27.7%
David Montgomery run for 6 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:3628% → 34%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
28.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 14 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
29.0%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+15
29.0%
Brewer,Charlie pass incomplete to Mims,Denzel (Payne, D'Andre), PENALTY ISU pass interference (Payne, D'Andre) 15 yards to the ISU45, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
31.1%
Brewer,Charlie pass incomplete to Mims,Denzel, PENALTY ISU pass interference (Cotton-Moya, K.) 15 yards to the ISU30, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
32.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Blake LynchSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-4
32.2%
John Lovett run for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 34
+4
29.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 4 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q3 12:24
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+47
34.4%
Connor Martin 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15FG
19 plays · 75 yds · 5:5966% → 74%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
33.6%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the IowSt 24Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+6
33.3%
David Montgomery run for 6 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
33.2%
David Montgomery run for 10 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
31.6%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+17
32.2%
David Montgomery run for 17 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
31.1%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+5
31.1%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Trever Ryen for 5 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 2
OPP 35
0
31.2%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q3 12:24
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+2
33.4%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Sheldon Croney Jr. for 2 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
30.3%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Marchie Murdock, broken up by Greg RobertsSimilar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+12
30.4%
David Montgomery run for 12 yds to the Bayl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
30.1%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Trever Ryen for 5 yds to the Bayl 16Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+6
30.1%
David Montgomery run for 6 yds to the Bayl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
30.1%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
30.1%
Joel Lanning run for 2 yds to the Bayl 5Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
31.0%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q3 6:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
25.9%
Garrett Owens 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16FUMBLE
19 plays · 72 yds · 6:2529% → 31%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
29.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 13 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
30.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Blake LynchSimilar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+12
30.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Blake Lynch for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
50
0
33.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Blake LynchSimilar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 10
50
+4
32.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+7
32.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 7 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
33.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+6
33.5%
Charlie Brewer run for 6 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
33.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the IowSt 30Similar
Q3 3:01
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+2
29.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the IowSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
32.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Jared Atkinson) to the IowSt 33Similar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+7
31.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jordan Feuerbacher for 7 yds to the IowSt 26Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+11
32.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 11 yds to the IowSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
32.9%
Charlie Brewer run for 5 yds to the IowSt 10Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+2
32.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the IowSt 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+6
29.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to John Lovett for 6 yds to the IowSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
31.1%
John Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 3 John Lovett fumbled, forced by Brian Peavy, recovered by IowSt Brian PeavySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0077% → 75%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
22.8%
David Montgomery run for 6 yds to the IowSt 9Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 4
OWN 9
0
23.2%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the IowSt 9Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 4
OWN 9
+2
24.1%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 2 yds to the IowSt 11Similar
Q4 14:18
4TH & 2
OWN 11
0
24.6%
Colin Downing punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
27.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for 11 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
28.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-5
28.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Patrick Lawrence) to the IowSt 43Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 12
OPP 43
0
26.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the IowSt 43Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+5
25.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 5 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
25.4%
Connor Martin punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:2580% → 88%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
20.3%
David Montgomery run for 6 yds to the IowSt 14Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+6
20.2%
David Montgomery run for 6 yds to the IowSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+26
19.8%
David Montgomery run for 26 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
17.4%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 11 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
16.6%
Noland, Zeb pass incomplete to Lazard, Allen, PENALTY BU pass interference (Hand,Harrison) 15 yards to the BU28, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
15.9%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-3
15.9%
David Montgomery run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 28Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
17.0%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Trever RyenSimilar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
11.6%
Garrett Owens 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20INT
8 plays · 47 yds · 0:0012% → 16%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
12.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 6 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+2
12.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 2 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+12
12.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 12 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
13.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 4 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+7
14.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 7 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
14.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 16 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+31
16.2%
Charlie Brewer pass intercepted Reggie Wilkerson return for 31 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21END OF GAME
14 plays · 48 yds · 2:0592% → 96%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
8.1%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the IowSt 38Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+25
7.4%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 25 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
6.9%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 1 yd to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
7.0%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Trever Ryen for no gain to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+8
6.1%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 8 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+2
4.3%
Joel Lanning run for 2 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
3.9%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (Sean Foster) to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+7
4.0%
Joel Lanning run for 7 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+7
3.9%
Joel Lanning run for 7 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+4
3.9%
Joel Lanning run for 4 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
3.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:19
Zeb Noland pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 67 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
-13.3
FG · Q3 12:24
Connor Martin 47 yd FG GOOD
+5.4
FG · Q4 7:01
Garrett Owens 45 yd FG GOOD
-5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com