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TTU

Texas Tech 38 at Baylor 24

BAY
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreTTU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFUMBLETDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Connor Martin punt for 53 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 4 yds to the TexTc 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+51.0+25.50−25.5−51.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Home team on offense−13.2Pregame prior−12.5Score differential−6.8Garbage-time factor−3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:28: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +2.7 pts (now 30%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:08: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 6 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +7.6 pts (now 22%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:44: Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 30 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +10.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  4. FUMBLE · Q4 5:25: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tony Nicholson for a loss of 2 yards for a TD Tony Nicholson fumbled, forced by Douglas Coleman III, recovered by TexTc Douglas Coleman III , return for 31 yds, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +3.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:33: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +2.1 pts (now 4%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 6TTU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 8:14BAY 4th & 6 at BAY 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:14TTU 4th & 5 at TTU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:35TTU 4th & 1 at BAY 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.1%−1.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:02BAY 4th & 1 at TTU 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    21.3%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    18.3%−4.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:56TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00BAY 4th & 6 at BAY 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:42TTU 4th & 12 at BAY 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    80.1%−6.4
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00BAY 4th & 10 at TTU 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    10.4%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:27TTU 4th & 15 at TTU 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:57BAY 4th & 4 at TTU 17, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.7%−<0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−2.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:57TTU 4th & 3 at TTU 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−0.4
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:25BAY 4th & 14 at TTU 47, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−<0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TTU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 14:46TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:28BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:14TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:11TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:08BAY Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:44TTU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:33BAY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 2TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:1827% → 30%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Gavin Holmes, broken up by Kolin HillSimilar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
26.8%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q1 14:46
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+23
26.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 8 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
26.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Blake Lynch for 3 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+17
26.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 17 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
26.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 4 yds to the TexTc 25Similar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+2
26.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Blake Lynch for 2 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
Q1 14:46
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+8
26.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 8 yds to the TexTc 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
26.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 9 yds to the TexTc 6Similar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+2
26.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the TexTc 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
26.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Blake Lynch, broken up by Vaughnte DorseySimilar
Q1 10:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
29.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:1472% → 73%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
28.5%
Tre King run for no gain to the TexTc 47Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+14
28.5%
Tre King run for 14 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
28.4%
Tre King run for 6 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+15
28.3%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 15 yds to the Bayl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
28.3%
Quan Shorts run for 14 yds to the Bayl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
28.3%
Tre King run for 3 yds to the Bayl 1Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.1%
Tre King run for 1 yd for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
27.8%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
27.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
27.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q1 8:14
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+5
27.4%
Connor Martin punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 27 , Cameron Batson returns for 5 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
27.6%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 4 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-6
27.5%
Nic Shimonek sacked by Jordan Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the TexTc 25Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+7
27.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Tre King for 7 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q1 8:14
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
27.8%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 33 yds, downed at the Bayl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6FUMBLE
7 plays · 54 yds · 0:5228% → 29%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
28.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 4 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+9
28.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for 9 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+35
28.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 35 yds to the TexTc 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
29.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+8
29.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 8 yds to the TexTc 9Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 2
OPP 9
-4
28.9%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 11 Charlie Brewer fumbled, recovered by TexTc Dakota AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7TD
20 plays · 89 yds · 6:2772% → 73%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
28.0%
Tre King run for 6 yds to the TexTc 17 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (Keke Coutee) to the TexTc 9Similar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 12
OWN 9
+24
28.5%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 24 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
27.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 5 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+5
27.5%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 5 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
27.5%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 8 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+5
27.2%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 5 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-15
27.3%
Shimonek, Nic pass complete to Cantrell, Dylan for 5 yards to the BU39, out-of-bounds (Arnold,Grayland), PENALTY TTU IB (Batson, Cameron) 15 yards to the TTU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 25
OWN 41
+6
28.0%
Tre King run for 6 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 19
OWN 47
+14
28.0%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 14 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+4
27.4%
Tre King run for 4 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 14:35
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+22
27.7%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 22 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
26.8%
Tre King run for 1 yd to the Bayl 12Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 9
OPP 12
-1
26.8%
Tre King run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 13Similar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+11
27.1%
Tre King run for 11 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
26.8%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Dylan Cantrell, broken up by Grayland ArnoldSimilar
Q2 12:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
28.1%
Tre King run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 5Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
27.5%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 5 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8DOWNS
15 plays · 78 yds · 6:0926% → 24%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
25.5%
Brewer,Charlie pass incomplete to Lynch,Blake, PENALTY TTU personal foul (Thomas, M.) 15 yards to the BU36, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
26.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+4
26.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+15
26.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 15 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
26.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+13
27.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for 13 yds to the TexTc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+13
27.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 13 yds to the TexTc 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
27.5%
Brewer,Charlie rush for no gain to the TTU11, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TTU personal foul (McCann, Nick) 6 yards to the TTU5, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
27.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Damarcus FieldsSimilar
Q2 12:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
27.5%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the TexTc 1Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
27.0%
John Lovett run for no gain to the TexTc 1Similar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
27.5%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
Q2 6:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the TexTc 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0071% → 72%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+8
28.7%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 8 yds to the TexTc 9Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 2
OWN 9
+4
29.2%
Tre King run for 4 yds to the TexTc 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+14
28.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 14 yds to the TexTc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
27.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Tre King for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 25Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+6
27.8%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 6 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
27.7%
Nic Shimonek pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
28.3%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Grayland Arnold at the Bayl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10INT
12 plays · 42 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
22.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 4 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+1
22.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 1 yd to the Bayl 33Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+8
22.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Blake Lynch for 8 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
23.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for 7 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
23.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+11
23.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for 11 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
23.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Blake Lynch) to the TexTc 46Similar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+28
23.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 28 yds to the TexTc 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
24.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-15
24.6%
Brewer,Charlie pass complete to Lynch,Blake for 14 yards to the TTU4 (Johnson, Jah.), PENALTY BU illegal block (Lovett,John) 15 yards to the TTU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 25
OPP 33
+3
24.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 3 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 22
OPP 30
0
23.2%
Charlie Brewer pass intercepted, touchback. Vaughnte Dorsey return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
18.5%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
19.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Blake Lynch for 4 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-3
19.5%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+4
18.4%
Connor Martin punt for 53 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 4 yds to the TexTc 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13FUMBLE
12 plays · 78 yds · 0:0083% → 84%
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
17.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 9 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+10
17.1%
Tre King run for 10 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
16.3%
Shimonek, Nic pass incomplete to Vasher, T.J., PENALTY BU pass interference (Houston,Jameson) 15 yards to the BU44, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
16.0%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 7 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+4
15.9%
Demarcus Felton run for 4 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
15.8%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for no gain to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
15.8%
Tre King run for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+6
16.1%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 6 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
15.7%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 3 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+17
15.7%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Tre King for 17 yds to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
15.6%
Nic Shimonek run for 2 yds to the Bayl 1Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
15.7%
Tre King run for no gain Tre King fumbled, forced by Jordan Williams, recovered by Bayl Tyrone HuntSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
15.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
15.5%
Charlie Brewer run for 9 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
16.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 2 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
16.0%
John Lovett run for 6 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 4
OWN 37
-4
16.4%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 35 Charlie Brewer fumbled, recovered by TexTc Mychealon ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15FG
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:5788% → 89%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
11.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 16 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
11.6%
Tre King run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 20Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 11
OPP 20
-1
11.9%
Tre King run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 21Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 12
OPP 21
0
12.1%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Keke Coutee, broken up by Taylor YoungSimilar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 12
OPP 21
+39
11.0%
Clayton Hatfield 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3412% → 22%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
12.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Blake Lynch for 40 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
14.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 4 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+2
14.5%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+10
14.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 10 yds to the TexTc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
14.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 3 yds to the TexTc 16Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+5
14.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 5 yds to the TexTc 11Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+5
14.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the TexTc 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
14.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Pooh StricklinSimilar
Q3 4:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
14.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q3 1:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
22.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 6 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:2483% → 93%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
17.4%
Tre King run for 2 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+30
6.8%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 30 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 35 yds · 0:4410% → 11%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
9.9%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
9.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 9 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
10.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 12 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
10.9%
Brewer,Charlie rush for 5 yards to the TTU47, out-of-bounds, PENALTY BU holding (Porter,Mo) 10 yards to the BU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+17
9.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 17 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+5
11.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
11.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
11.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for no gain to the TexTc 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
11.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
10.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Pooh StricklinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
5.4%
Tre King run for no gain to the TexTc 40Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
5.5%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Quan ShortsSimilar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
5.6%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q4 11:27
4TH & 10
OWN 40
-5
5.9%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (Damarcus Fields) to the TexTc 35Similar
Q4 11:27
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
6.1%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 2:425% → 8%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
5.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 12 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
5.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Sam Tecklenburg) to the Bayl 26Similar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+19
5.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 19 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
5.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 13 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
6.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
6.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jared Atkinson for 5 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+14
6.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Blake Lynch for 14 yds to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
6.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Blake Lynch for 6 yds to the TexTc 17Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 4
OPP 17
0
6.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Pooh StricklinSimilar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
6.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Blake LynchSimilar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+34
8.2%
Connor Martin 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-4
4.7%
Desmond Nisby run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 10Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 14
OWN 10
-7
4.8%
Nic Shimonek sacked by James Lynch for a loss of 7 yards to the TexTc 3Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 21
OWN 3
+18
5.1%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 18 yds to the TexTc 21Similar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
4.8%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22FUMBLE TD
1 play · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+31
1.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tony Nicholson for a loss of 2 yards for a TD Tony Nicholson fumbled, forced by Douglas Coleman III, recovered by TexTc Douglas Coleman III , return for 31 yds, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 3:521% → 4%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
1.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 9 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+1
1.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 1 yd to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
1.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 12 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
1.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 15 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
1.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Blake LynchSimilar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-8
1.3%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Zach Barnes for a loss of 8 yards to the TexTc 48 Charlie Brewer fumbled, recovered by Bayl Sam Tecklenburg , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 15
OPP 48
+1
1.3%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd to the TexTc 47Similar
Q4 5:25
4TH & 14
OPP 47
+27
1.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 27 yds to the TexTc 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
1.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 2 yds to the TexTc 18Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+3
1.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 3 yds to the TexTc 15Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+12
1.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 12 yds to the TexTc 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
1.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jordan FeuerbacherSimilar
Q4 1:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
4.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:4799% → 99%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
1.3%
Desmond Nisby run for 2 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+5
1.2%
Desmond Nisby run for 5 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+15
1.0%
Desmond Nisby run for 15 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:44
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 30 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
-10.6
TD · Q3 1:08
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 6 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)
+7.6
FUMBLE · Q4 5:25
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tony Nicholson for a loss of 2 yards for a TD Tony Nicholson fumbled, forced by Douglas Coleman III, recovered by TexTc Douglas Coleman III , return for 31 yds, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
-3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com