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TEX

Texas 7 at TCU 24

TCU
2017 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2017 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:59 · Michael Dickson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Pregame prior+11.1Home team on offense+8.4Garbage-time factor+1.5Score differential+3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:19: Kyle Hicks run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +8.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:32: Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 33 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TEX win probability +8.0 pts (now 24%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 2:04: Shane Buechele pass incomplete — TEX win probability +2.5 pts (now 22%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. PUNT · Q3 2:54: Michael Dickson punt for 39 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 5 yds to the TCU 40 TCU Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the TCU 30 — TCU win probability +2.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:23: Darius Anderson run for 31 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +5.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 12TEX made the numbers' call on 11 of 14
  1. Q1 12:05TCU 4th & 2 at TEX 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    70.1%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:04TEX 4th & 20 at TEX 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:13TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:17TEX 4th & 15 at TEX 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:16TCU 4th & 1 at TEX 1, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.4%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    68.5%−4.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:29TEX 4th & 3 at TCU 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    25.8%−1.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    26.2%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:50TEX 4th & 10 at TCU 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    24.4%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:26TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 36, up 10
    Close callPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:11TEX 4th & 4 at TCU 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−0.6
    51% to make
    Punt
    21.6%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:37TCU 4th & 8 at TCU 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:04TEX 4th & 29 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−2.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:59TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 44, down 10
    Close callPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:16TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 20, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%−2.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:13TEX 4th & 6 at TEX 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:00TCU 4th & 12 at TCU 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−1.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:54TEX 4th & 16 at TEX 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−2.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:35TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 36, up 10
    Close callPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:14TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−1.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:30TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:05TEX 4th & 18 at TEX 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−1.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  21. Q4 10:08TCU 4th & 8 at TEX 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    85.8%−1.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  22. Q4 8:44TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  23. Q4 4:23TCU 4th & 1 at TEX 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    91.5%−1.0
    54% to make
    Punt
    90.8%−1.7
    average punt
  24. Q4 3:24TEX 4th & 10 at TCU 35, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.3
    average punt
  25. Q4 2:22TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 43, up 17
    Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%−0.2
    average punt
  26. Q4 1:27TEX 4th & 19 at TEX 38, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%−0.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TEX made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:29TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:19TCU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:32TEX Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:23TCU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1673% → 74%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
73.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 9 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
73.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+20
73.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 5 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
73.3%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
73.2%
TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Texas 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
73.3%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
73.2%
Kenny Hill run for 4 yds to the Texas 25Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+4
73.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ty Slanina for 4 yds to the Texas 21Similar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+20
73.0%
KaVontae Turpin pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 20 yds to the Texas 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.1%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:1126% → 26%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
73.6%
Daniel Young run for 3 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-13
73.6%
TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (-13 Yards) to the Texas 14Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 20
OWN 14
0
73.7%
Daniel Young run for no gain to the Texas 14Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 20
OWN 14
0
73.9%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:04
4TH & 20
OWN 14
0
74.0%
Michael Dickson punt for 76 yds, downed at the TCU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4074% → 74%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
73.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the TCU 14Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 6
OWN 14
0
74.0%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the TCU 14Similar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+5
73.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 5 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 1
OWN 19
-5
73.7%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 14Similar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 6
OWN 14
0
73.7%
Adam Nunez punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Reggie Hemphill-Mapps at the Texas 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:5126% → 25%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
73.7%
Daniel Young run for 1 yd to the Texas 41Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+1
73.8%
Shane Buechele run for 1 yd to the Texas 42Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-7
74.0%
Shane Buechele sacked by Mat Boesen for a loss of 7 yards to the Texas 35Similar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
74.6%
Michael Dickson punt for 50 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5FG
16 plays · 84 yds · 6:4974% → 76%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
74.2%
KaVontae Turpin run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 13Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 12
OWN 13
-5
74.3%
Kenny Hill run for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 8Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 17
OWN 8
+27
74.0%
Kenny Hill run for 27 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
74.6%
Darius Anderson run for 1 yd to the TCU 36Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+6
74.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 6 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+4
75.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 4 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
75.4%
Darius Anderson run for 9 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+4
75.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 4 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
75.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Darius Anderson for 4 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+22
75.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Cole Hunt for 22 yds to the Texas 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
75.5%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the Texas 12Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+10
75.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 10 yds to the Texas 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
75.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the Texas 1Similar
Q1 0:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.7%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the Texas 1Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for no gain to the Texas 1Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
75.5%
Jonathan Song 18 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6MISSED FG
14 plays · 45 yds · 3:1925% → 23%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
75.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 11 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
75.4%
Daniel Young run for 5 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
75.1%
Daniel Young run for 1 yd to the Texas 42Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+9
75.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 9 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
74.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to John Burt for 5 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+2
74.6%
Daniel Young run for 2 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
75.0%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:29
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+12
76.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Chris Warren III for 12 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
75.2%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
75.2%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
76.0%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+47
77.2%
Joshua Rowland 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:2277% → 87%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
77.2%
Kenny Hill run for 13 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
77.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 6 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+33
78.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 33 yds to the Texas 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
78.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ty Slanina for 4 yds to the Texas 14Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+14
87.1%
Kyle Hicks run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3816% → 24%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
84.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 37 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
83.7%
Buechele, Shane pass complete to Hemphill-Mapps, Reggie for no gain to the TCU38, PENALTY TCU offside 5 yards to the TCU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 5
OPP 33
+33
75.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 33 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4978% → 78%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
77.5%
Kenny Hill run for 4 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+4
78.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Darius Anderson for 4 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 2
OWN 38
-2
78.7%
Kenny Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 36Similar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+3
77.9%
Adam Nunez punt for 52 yds , Reggie Hemphill-Mapps returns for 3 yds to the Texas 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10DOWNS
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:1021% → 21%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
78.6%
Buechele, Shane pass incomplete, PENALTY TCU pass interference 9 yards to the TEXAS24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
78.5%
Chris Warren III run for 3 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+5
78.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 5 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+7
78.3%
Shane Buechele run for 7 yds to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
77.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Daniel Young for 5 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+18
77.5%
Shane Buechele run for 18 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
77.6%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
77.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 3 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+3
77.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lorenzo Joe for 3 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q2 3:11
4TH & 4
OPP 32
-6
78.8%
Shane Buechele sacked by Chris Bradley for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:2281% → 80%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
80.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 7 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
81.3%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-5
80.6%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 40Similar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
80.2%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:37
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
79.6%
Adam Nunez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Reggie Hemphill-Mapps at the Texas 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:2820% → 20%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
79.9%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
80.0%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+37
80.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Daniel Young for 37 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
78.2%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+11
78.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 11 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
77.0%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-7
77.0%
Shane Buechele sacked by Ben Banogu for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 38Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 17
OPP 38
-7
79.5%
Shane Buechele sacked by Ben Banogu for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 45Similar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 24
OPP 45
-5
80.5%
TEXAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 29
50
0
80.5%
Michael Dickson punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
81.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:5121% → 20%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
78.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Cade Brewer for 3 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
78.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 10 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
78.1%
Daniel Young run for 5 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
77.5%
Daniel Young run for 4 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 1
OWN 47
-3
79.0%
Shane Buechele run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 44Similar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
80.5%
Michael Dickson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2981% → 80%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
80.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 5
OWN 16
0
80.9%
Kenny Hill run for no gain to the TCU 16Similar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+4
80.1%
Kenny Hill run for 4 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q3 11:16
4TH & 1
OWN 20
0
79.8%
Adam Nunez punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Reggie Hemphill-Mapps at the Texas 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5720% → 19%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
80.1%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
80.4%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+4
81.3%
Shane Buechele run for 4 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
81.5%
Michael Dickson punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 4:0582% → 82%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
81.6%
Darius Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 19Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+6
81.5%
Darius Anderson run for 6 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+5
81.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
82.1%
Hill, Kenny pass incomplete, PENALTY TEXAS substitution infraction 5 yards to the TCU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 5
OWN 35
+11
82.6%
Darius Anderson run for 11 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
83.4%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-5
83.6%
Kenny Hill sacked by Poona Ford and Gary Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 44Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 12
OWN 44
0
82.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for no gain to the TCU 44Similar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 12
OWN 44
+4
81.8%
Adam Nunez punt for 42 yds , Reggie Hemphill-Mapps returns for 4 yds to the Texas 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 3:0118% → 15%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
82.3%
Young, Daniel rush for 1 yard to the TEXAS19, PENALTY TCU offside 5 yards to the TEXAS23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 5
OWN 23
0
81.9%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 5
OWN 23
-2
82.2%
Jerrod Heard run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 21Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+11
84.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 11 yds to the Texas 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
82.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 2 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+4
82.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 4 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-12
82.4%
Shane Buechele sacked by Ty Summers for a loss of 12 yards to the Texas 26Similar
Q3 2:54
4TH & 16
OWN 26
+5
85.1%
Michael Dickson punt for 39 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 5 yds to the TCU 40 TCU Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the TCU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1284% → 84%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
84.4%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-2
84.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+8
84.0%
Kenny Hill run for 8 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q3 1:35
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
84.1%
Adam Nunez punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Reggie Hemphill-Mapps at the Texas 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0916% → 12%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
84.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 7Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+1
84.8%
Daniel Young run for 1 yd to the Texas 8Similar
Q3 0:22
3RD & 10
OWN 8
0
87.2%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:14
4TH & 10
OWN 8
-2
87.7%
Michael Dickson punt for 42 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3987% → 86%
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
87.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 3 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+4
87.4%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 3
OPP 45
-7
86.4%
Kenny Hill sacked by Gerald Wilbon and Gary Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 48Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
85.6%
Adam Nunez punt for 38 yds, downed at the Texas 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:1814% → 12%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
86.2%
Daniel Young run for 12 yds to the Texas 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
86.0%
Daniel Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 25Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 11
OWN 25
-12
86.6%
Buechele, Shane pass complete to Johnson, Collin for 14 yards to the TEXAS39, PENALTY TEXAS pass interference 12 yards to the TEXAS13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 23
OWN 13
-2
86.8%
Daniel Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 11Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 25
OWN 11
+7
87.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 7 yds to the Texas 18Similar
Q4 11:05
4TH & 18
OWN 18
+34
88.4%
Michael Dickson punt for 63 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 34 yds to the Texas 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4889% → 87%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
88.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
88.5%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
88.2%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete TCU Penalty, Illegal Touching ( Yards) to the Texas 45Similar
Q4 10:08
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
87.1%
Adam Nunez punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Reggie Hemphill-Mapps at the Texas 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0611% → 9%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
88.7%
Shane Buechele sacked by Joseph Broadnax Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 15Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+5
89.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 5 yds to the Texas 20Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
90.5%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 7
OWN 20
+57
90.9%
Michael Dickson punt for 52 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 28 TCU Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the TCU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 4:0790% → 98%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
90.0%
Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
90.0%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+25
89.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
50
+2
91.2%
Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+6
91.8%
Darius Anderson run for 6 yds to the Texas 42Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+2
92.1%
Kenny Hill run for 2 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
92.4%
Darius Anderson run for 5 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+4
92.7%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 1
OPP 31
0
92.7%
Darius Anderson run for no gain to the Texas 31Similar
Q4 4:23
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+31
98.2%
Darius Anderson run for 31 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · 42 yds · 0:542% → 2%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
98.0%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+42
98.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 42 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
97.5%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
97.6%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
97.8%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
97.9%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:5698% → 99%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
98.4%
Darius Anderson run for 1 yd to the TCU 36Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-5
98.5%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 31Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+10
98.5%
Darius Anderson run for 10 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+2
98.7%
Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q4 2:22
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
98.6%
Adam Nunez punt for 10 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 28DOWNS
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:491% → 1%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.4%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
99.4%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-9
99.4%
Shane Buechele sacked by Ross Blacklock for a loss of 9 yards to the Texas 38Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 19
OWN 38
0
99.4%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:3699% → 99%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
99.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 40Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 12
OPP 40
-1
99.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:19
Kyle Hicks run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)
+8.7
TD · Q2 8:32
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 33 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)
-8
TD · Q4 4:23
Darius Anderson run for 31 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)
+5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com