2017 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2017 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreISU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:29 · Garrett Owens 18 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:59: Ka'Raun White 55 Yd pass from Will Grier (Evan Staley Kick) — WVU win probability +11.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 6:20: Evan Staley 36 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +7.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 1:46: Garrett Owens 42 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +8.3 pts (now 21%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:48: Allen Lazard 1 Yd pass from Kyle Kempt (Garrett Owens Kick) — ISU win probability +10.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 7:19: Garrett Owens 24 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +14.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6ISU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 10:02WVU 4th & 4 at ISU 11, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 62.8% before the snapGo for it62.8%45% to convertField goalTheir call62.7%−<0.187% to makePunt61.7%−1.1average punt
- Q1 8:13ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 33, down 10Close callPunted · 36.9% before the snapGo for it37.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:58WVU 4th & 2 at ISU 40, up 10Close callPunted · 65.1% before the snapGo for it65.2%57% to convertField goal64.1%−1.134% to makePuntTheir call64.2%−0.9average punt
- Q1 0:00ISU 4th & 17 at ISU 46, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snapGo for it32.1%−1.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.2%average punt
- Q2 10:38ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 30, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snapGo for it21.8%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.9%average punt
- Q2 6:20WVU 4th & 6 at ISU 19, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.5% before the snapGo for it80.9%−0.438% to convertField goalTheir call81.3%77% to makePunt74.1%−7.3average punt
- Q2 1:46ISU 4th & 7 at WVU 25, down 20Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.1% before the snapGo for it10.4%−0.336% to convertField goalTheir call10.7%66% to makePunt6.3%−4.4average punt
- Q3 6:08WVU 4th & 2 at ISU 35, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.7%57% to convertField goal79.1%−1.745% to makePunt78.3%−2.4average punt
- Q3 2:29ISU 4th & 1 at WVU 1, down 10Numbers favored go for it by 3.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 20.4% before the snapGo for it19.1%59% to convertField goalTheir call15.3%−3.894% to makePunt5.2%−13.9average punt
- Q3 0:58WVU 4th & 2 at WVU 43, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 81.3% before the snapGo for it82.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.0%−1.1average punt
- Q4 13:34ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 41, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 20.3% before the snapGo for it21.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.6%−2.7average punt
- Q4 12:18WVU 4th & 9 at WVU 42, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snapGo for it82.8%−1.932% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.7%average punt
- Q4 7:19ISU 4th & 5 at WVU 7, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.1% before the snapGo for it16.0%−3.034% to convertField goalTheir call18.9%91% to makePunt5.4%−13.6average punt
- Q4 2:52ISU 4th & 7 at ISU 37, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.7%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt15.7%−3.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ISU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 13:39WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.3%97% to makeGo for two61.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:59WVU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.1%97% to makeGo for two74.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:48ISU Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.5%97% to makeGo for two21.4%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1653% → 54%
ISUDrive 2INT4 plays · 17 yds · 0:5146% → 46%
WVUDrive 3FG8 plays · 37 yds · 2:2955% → 56%
ISUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3244% → 43%
WVUDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 30 yds · 3:0257% → 59%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6PUNT13 plays · 43 yds · 4:5042% → 38%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
58.6%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 7 yds to the IowSt 21Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+6
59.9%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 6 yds to the IowSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
59.4%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Trever Ryen for 7 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+5
59.3%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Trever Ryen for 5 yds to the WVirg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-15
59.4%
IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the IowSt 38Similar
Q1 0:13
3RD & 24
OWN 39
+7
61.4%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 7 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 17
OWN 46
+1
62.1%
Colin Downing punt for 49 yds , Marcus Simms returns for 1 yd to the WVirg 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 7TD9 plays · 94 yds · 2:5661% → 75%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
61.5%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 9 yds to the WVirg 29Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+4
63.0%
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 4 yds to the WVirg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 4
OPP 45
-6
63.3%
Martell Pettaway run for 4 yds to the WVirg 45 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WVirg 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1027% → 26%
WVUDrive 9FG10 plays · 50 yds · 4:0876% → 86%
Q2 9:09
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+7
78.0%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 7 yds to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10FG12 plays · 28 yds · 4:2116% → 21%
Q2 5:35
2ND & 20
OWN 22
+9
85.6%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 9 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+14
85.4%
Kempt, Kyle pass complete to Butler, Hakeem for loss of 1 yard to the IOWAST30, PENALTY WESTVIR face mask 15 yards to the IOWAST46, NO PLAY, PENALTY WESTVIR personal foul 14 yards to the WESTVIR40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
84.5%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 4 yds to the WVirg 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11DOWNS15 plays · 64 yds · 1:2384% → 85%
Q2 0:47
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+16
84.4%
Will Grier pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 16 yds to the WVirg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
85.2%
Will Grier pass complete to Justin Crawford for 8 yds to the WVirg 46Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+21
84.2%
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 21 yds to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 13
OPP 36
+19
84.6%
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 19 yds to the IowSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12TD11 plays · 86 yds · 3:5218% → 28%
Q3 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+9
82.8%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 9 yds to the IowSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+30
81.8%
David Montgomery run for 15 yds to the WVirg 41 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) to the WVirg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
82.3%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Trever Ryen for no gain to the WVirg 42Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+14
83.2%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 14 yds to the WVirg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+25
81.6%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 25 yds to the WVirg 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 13DOWNS12 plays · 56 yds · 4:2475% → 78%
Q3 9:34
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+8
74.6%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 8 yds to the WVirg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
76.0%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 10 yds to the WVirg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
79.6%
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 8 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14FG12 plays · 65 yds · 3:2923% → 30%
Q3 5:26
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+8
78.7%
Kempt, Kyle pass incomplete to Lazard, Allen, PENALTY WESTVIR pass interference 8 yards to the IOWAST42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
76.5%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 4 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+23
76.4%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 23 yds to the WVirg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
74.5%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Chase Allen for 13 yds to the WVirg 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+8
74.6%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (8 Yards) to the WVirg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1878% → 80%
ISUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 29 yds · 2:1425% → 22%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+20
75.2%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 20 yds to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+2
74.5%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 2 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+5
75.4%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 5 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 34 yds · 1:0682% → 82%
ISUDrive 18FG14 plays · 67 yds · 4:5321% → 36%
Q4 11:31
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+26
80.5%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 26 yds to the WVirg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
75.8%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 9 yds to the WVirg 36Similar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+8
76.6%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Trever Ryen for 8 yds to the WVirg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
74.5%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to David Montgomery for 11 yds to the WVirg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 19INT7 plays · 42 yds · 2:1577% → 85%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
76.8%
Will Grier pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for 16 yds to the WVirg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+2
83.7%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 2 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
85.4%
Will Grier pass intercepted, touchback. D'Andre Payne return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20DOWNS9 plays · 17 yds · 2:0129% → 22%
WVUDrive 21END OF GAME8 plays · 19 yds · 2:4289% → 96%
Q4 2:40
2ND & 15
OPP 42
-2
90.5%
Will Grier pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 7:19
Garrett Owens 24 yd FG GOOD
-14.6
TD · Q2 11:59
Ka'Raun White 55 Yd pass from Will Grier (Evan Staley Kick)
+11.2
TD · Q3 10:48
Allen Lazard 1 Yd pass from Kyle Kempt (Garrett Owens Kick)
-10.5