Try the model
TCU

TCU 7 at Iowa State 14

ISU
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · Jack Trice Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:07 · Adam Nunez punt for 58 yds, downed at the IowSt 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Pregame prior−16.1Home team on offense+2.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:29: Kyle Kempt pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 4 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ISU win probability +7.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:48: Chris Francis kickoff for 59 yds , KaVontae Turpin return for 94 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +12.7 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 7:15: Kyle Kempt run for 1 yd to the TCU 29 — ISU win probability +12.7 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:07: Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Allen Lazard — ISU win probability +14.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:10: TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 39 — ISU win probability +6.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 9
  1. Q1 13:33ISU 4th & 11 at ISU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:07TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:48TCU 4th & 13 at TCU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:58ISU 4th & 20 at TCU 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    42.7%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:07TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 31, down 7
    Close callPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:16ISU 4th & 11 at ISU 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:04TCU 4th & 7 at ISU 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    47.5%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:17TCU 4th & 9 at ISU 35, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    32.4%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:22ISU 4th & 15 at ISU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−3.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:33TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:10ISU 4th & 8 at TCU 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−1.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    60.4%−9.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:56TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 44, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:28ISU 4th & 7 at ISU 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−1.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:51TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:09ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 26, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.6 ptsPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%−3.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:11ISU 4th & 11 at ISU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−4.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:12TCU 4th & 12 at ISU 46, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    8.8%−0.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%−1.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:27ISU 4th & 12 at ISU 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−1.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:45ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:29ISU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:48TCU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1730% → 30%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
29.9%
David Montgomery run for 6 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
30.1%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 4
OWN 32
-7
30.2%
Kyle Kempt sacked by Innis Gaines for a loss of 7 yards to the IowSt 25Similar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
30.3%
Colin Downing punt for 44 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1870% → 69%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
30.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 7 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 3
OWN 38
-10
30.5%
TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cole Hunt) to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 13
OWN 28
0
30.8%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 13
OWN 28
+9
31.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 9 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
31.2%
Adam Nunez punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Trever Ryen at the IowSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 4:1531% → 36%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
31.2%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 15 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
31.3%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to David Montgomery for 1 yd to the IowSt 31Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+10
31.6%
David Montgomery run for 10 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
32.1%
David Montgomery run for 7 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+1
32.7%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the IowSt 49Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+12
32.8%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 12 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+22
33.2%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 22 yds to the TCU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
33.6%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the TCU 17Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
36.3%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 17 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:4764% → 62%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
35.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 10 yds to the TCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
36.0%
Kyle Hicks run for 17 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
35.9%
Darius Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 38Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 13
OWN 38
0
36.7%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 13
OWN 38
0
37.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 13
OWN 38
+42
37.6%
Adam Nunez punt for 58 yds , Trever Ryen returns for 42 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:4338% → 39%
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
38.1%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+24
38.6%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 24 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
39.0%
IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TCU 38Similar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 20
OPP 38
-2
39.1%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to David Montgomery for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 22
OPP 40
+2
39.5%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 2 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 20
OPP 38
0
39.8%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Sheldon Croney Jr.Similar
Q1 2:58
4TH & 20
OPP 38
0
39.1%
Colin Downing punt for 15 yds, downed at the TCU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:4361% → 60%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
39.3%
Kenny Hill run for 5 yds to the TCU 28 TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TCU 18Similar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+5
39.5%
Darius Anderson run for 5 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
39.9%
Darius Anderson run for 7 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+1
40.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 1:07
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
40.5%
Adam Nunez punt for 58 yds, downed at the IowSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7PUNT
13 plays · 30 yds · 4:4441% → 43%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
40.6%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the IowSt 11Similar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
40.9%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q1 0:17
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+17
40.5%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 17 yds to the IowSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
41.8%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
42.2%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+7
41.6%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 7 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+5
42.3%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
44.4%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Bryce Meeker) to the IowSt 37Similar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 15
OWN 37
-1
43.1%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 36Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 16
OWN 36
+5
43.4%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to David Montgomery for 5 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 11
OWN 41
0
43.6%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to David MontgomerySimilar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
42.8%
Colin Downing punt for 41 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 4:0656% → 52%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
44.0%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 5
OWN 23
0
44.1%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+8
45.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 8 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
44.1%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Joseph Noteboom) to the TCU 26Similar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+6
45.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 6 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+22
45.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 22 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
43.4%
TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Austin Schlottmann) to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+17
45.8%
Darius Anderson run for 17 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 3
OPP 39
-2
43.7%
Darius Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 41Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 5
OPP 41
-2
45.2%
Kenny Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 43Similar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
47.6%
Adam Nunez punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 3:2949% → 62%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
48.5%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Marchie MurdockSimilar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+2
48.4%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 20Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+11
47.9%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ranthony Texada) to the IowSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
49.4%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+13
51.3%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 13 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
53.4%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Marchie MurdockSimilar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+15
53.1%
David Montgomery run for 15 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
54.1%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+30
54.0%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 30 yds to the TCU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
54.3%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 1 yd to the TCU 4Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
55.0%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q2 3:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
62.3%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 4 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 1:5840% → 37%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
60.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 15 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
59.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+20
61.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 20 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
59.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the IowSt 35Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
59.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for no gain to the IowSt 35Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
60.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Kyle HicksSimilar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 9
OPP 35
0
63.0%
Adam Nunez punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 19 yds · 1:0069% → 70%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
68.5%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 22Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+15
68.7%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the IowSt 22 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
69.7%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:0857% → 56%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
57.0%
David Montgomery run for 8 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+3
58.6%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Trever Ryen for 3 yds to the IowSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
58.0%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
59.7%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Marchie MurdockSimilar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 7
OWN 37
-8
57.8%
Kyle Kempt sacked by Mat Boesen for a loss of 8 yards to the IowSt 29Similar
Q3 12:22
4TH & 15
OWN 29
0
55.6%
Colin Downing punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4244% → 40%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
56.0%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+2
55.2%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 3
OWN 48
-3
55.9%
Kenny Hill run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 45 Kenny Hill fumbled, recovered by TCU Kenny HillSimilar
Q3 10:33
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
59.7%
Adam Nunez punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Allen Lazard at the IowSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
60.2%
Kyle Kempt pass intercepted Jeff Gladney return for no gain to the IowSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16INT
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:4844% → 42%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+19
55.8%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the IowSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
53.9%
Jalen Reagor run for 1 yd to the IowSt 23Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+8
54.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 8 yds to the IowSt 15Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+4
56.5%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the IowSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
55.0%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the IowSt 7Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
55.3%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Cole HuntSimilar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+70
57.6%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted Brian Peavy return for 70 yds to the TCU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17MISSED FG
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:0570% → 69%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
70.3%
Kyle Kempt run for 1 yd to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
71.0%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+5
70.3%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Mat Boesen) to the TCU 24Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+13
70.4%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jeff Gladney) to the TCU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
71.9%
Joel Lanning run for no gain to the TCU 11Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
72.2%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+2
70.1%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the TCU 9Similar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
68.8%
Garrett Owens 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 2:0736% → 35%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
64.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 16 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
62.8%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the TCU 37Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+8
63.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 8 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-1
62.1%
Darius Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 44Similar
Q3 1:56
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
65.5%
Adam Nunez punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Allen Lazard at the IowSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:2171% → 76%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+14
71.1%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 14 yds to the IowSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
71.9%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+10
75.0%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 10 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
79.0%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the IowSt 41Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
78.4%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 3 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
77.7%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Matthew EatonSimilar
Q4 14:28
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
76.2%
Colin Downing punt for 36 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:2930% → 25%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
70.3%
Kenny Hill run for 6 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+7
72.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Dylan Thomas for 7 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
72.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 4 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
71.5%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
73.2%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Kyle HicksSimilar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
74.6%
Adam Nunez punt for 46 yds, downed at the IowSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3679% → 78%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
79.0%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the IowSt 18Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+8
79.0%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 8 yds to the IowSt 26Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 1
OWN 26
0
79.0%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the IowSt 26Similar
Q4 11:09
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
78.3%
Colin Downing punt for 45 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22FUMBLE
7 plays · 56 yds · 3:0325% → 30%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+28
74.9%
Darius Anderson run for 28 yds to the IowSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
71.3%
Darius Anderson run for 13 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
69.4%
Darius Anderson run for 8 yds to the IowSt 22Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 2
OPP 22
-10
68.6%
TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Austin Schlottmann) to the IowSt 32Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 12
OPP 32
-1
70.0%
Kenny Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 33Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 13
OPP 33
+30
75.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 30 yds to the IowSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
70.3%
Sewo Olonilua run for no gain to the IowSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5685% → 84%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
85.0%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
84.8%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 10
OWN 15
-1
84.0%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to David Montgomery for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 14Similar
Q4 6:11
4TH & 11
OWN 14
0
84.4%
Colin Downing punt for 49 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:5120% → 11%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
80.3%
Darius Anderson run for 19 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
77.4%
TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Austin Schlottmann) to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+2
81.5%
Kenny Hill run for 2 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 18
OWN 48
+6
83.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 6 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 12
OPP 46
0
85.2%
Darius Anderson run for no gain to the IowSt 46Similar
Q4 3:12
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
88.6%
Adam Nunez punt for 26 yds, downed at the IowSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 1:3892% → 94%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.4%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the IowSt 20Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
92.7%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Josh Knipfel) to the IowSt 15Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+2
93.0%
Joel Lanning run for 2 yds to the IowSt 17Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+1
93.8%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the IowSt 18Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
94.3%
Colin Downing punt for 36 yds, downed at the TCU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0711% → 10%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
89.3%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
89.7%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted Marcel Spears Jr. return for no gain to the IowSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:4096% → 96%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
96.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 39Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 15
OWN 39
-5
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 7:07
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Allen Lazard
+14.8
TD · Q3 14:48
Chris Francis kickoff for 59 yds , KaVontae Turpin return for 94 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)
-12.7
KEY PLAY · Q3 7:15
Kyle Kempt run for 1 yd to the TCU 29
+12.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com