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TEX

Texas 38 at Baylor 7

BAY
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Michael Dickson punt for 50 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Home team on offense−17.0Pregame prior−15.2Score differential−8.2Garbage-time factor−3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:42: Lil'Jordan Humphrey 15 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Joshua Rowland Kick) — TEX win probability +5.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:38: John Lovett 2 Yd Run (Connor Martin Kick) — BAY win probability +7.6 pts (now 29%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:51: Shane Buechele run for 28 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TEX win probability +9.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:51: Shane Buechele pass complete to Toneil Carter for 7 yds to the Bayl 21 — TEX win probability +4.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:55: Toneil Carter run for 19 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TEX win probability +4.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 10 of 13TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 14:06BAY 4th & 26 at BAY 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:25TEX 4th & 17 at TEX 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:12BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 17, down 7
    Close callPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:10TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:12TEX 4th & 5 at BAY 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:12BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00TEX 4th & 2 at BAY 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    71.8%−0.4
    72% to make
    Punt
    69.3%−2.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:54BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:18TEX 4th & 2 at BAY 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    71.1%−1.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:14BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.3%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:51BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 48, down 14
    Close callPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:21TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−1.0
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00TEX 4th & 4 at midfield, up 14
    Close callPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:31BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 38, down 14
    Close callPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 11:02TEX 4th & 13 at TEX 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−2.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:55TEX 4th & 1 at BAY 1, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.7%−2.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    76.6%−9.8
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:55BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:43BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.1%−0.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:55BAY 4th & 8 at TEX 35, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:19BAY 4th & 6 at TEX 22, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−1.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:39TEX 4th & 1 at BAY 40, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%−0.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:32BAY 4th & 28 at BAY 10, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:57BAY 4th & 4 at TEX 43, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 14:06TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:42TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:38BAY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:51TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:55TEX Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:57TEX Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1INT TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5423% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.6%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+43
22.8%
Zach Smith pass intercepted for a TD DeShon Elliott return for 43 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
22.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 6 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+2
22.9%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+22
22.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 22 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
22.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 41Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+15
22.9%
TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Kris Boyd) to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
22.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Gavin Holmes) to the Texas 49Similar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 15
OPP 49
0
22.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Gavin Holmes, broken up by Holton HillSimilar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+4
22.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 4 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 11
OPP 45
-15
22.9%
Charlie Brewer sacked by John Bonney and Malik Jefferson for a loss of 15 yards to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 14:06
4TH & 26
OWN 40
0
22.8%
Connor Martin punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Reggie Hemphill-Mapps at the Texas 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
23.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 4 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+10
23.4%
Shane Buechele run for 10 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
23.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 12 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
23.2%
Toneil Carter run for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 49Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 15
OWN 49
-4
23.4%
Shane Buechele sacked by Verkedric Vaughns for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 45Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 19
OWN 45
+2
23.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Chris Warren III for 2 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q1 10:25
4TH & 17
OWN 47
0
23.7%
Michael Dickson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
24.1%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 5
OWN 14
-5
24.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Mo Porter) to the Bayl 9Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+9
24.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 9 yds to the Bayl 18Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 1
OWN 18
-1
24.0%
John Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 17Similar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 2
OWN 17
0
23.9%
Connor Martin punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Reggie Hemphill-Mapps at the Texas 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
24.2%
Daniel Young run for no gain to the Texas 32Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
24.3%
Toneil Carter run for 4 yds to the Texas 36Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+2
24.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 2 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q1 5:10
4TH & 4
OWN 38
+5
24.4%
Michael Dickson punt for 47 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 5 yds to the Bayl 43 BAYLOR Penalty, personal foul (10 Yards) to the Bayl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6FUMBLE
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
24.9%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 16 Terence Williams fumbled, forced by Holton Hill, recovered by Texas John BonneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7MISSED FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
23.8%
TEXAS Penalty, false start (Derek Kerstetter) to the Bayl 21Similar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+5
23.9%
Daniel Young run for 5 yds to the Bayl 16Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
23.8%
Daniel Young run for 5 yds to the Bayl 11Similar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
24.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey, broken up by Greg RobertsSimilar
Q1 3:12
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+27
24.4%
Joshua Rowland 27 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Greg RobertsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 3:12
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
24.5%
Connor Martin punt for 30 yds, downed at the Texas 45Similar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
25.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Blake Lynch for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 19Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
24.9%
Charlie Brewer run for no gain to the Bayl 19Similar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+6
24.6%
Charlie Brewer run for 6 yds to the Bayl 25 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9DOWNS
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:0376% → 75%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+25
24.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to John Burt for 25 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
23.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Dorian LeonardSimilar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
23.9%
Chris Warren III run for no gain to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+8
24.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Cade Brewer for 8 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+1
24.6%
Shane Buechele run for 1 yd to the Bayl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 14:54
4TH & 7
OWN 34
+55
24.8%
Connor Martin punt for 48 yds , Reggie Hemphill-Mapps returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 33 TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Kris Boyd) to the Texas 10Similar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
25.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Trestan EbnerSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+10
25.3%
Trestan Ebner run for 10 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
25.5%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 28Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 13
OWN 28
0
25.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 13
OWN 28
+6
24.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 6 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11TD
11 plays · 90 yds · 3:4675% → 82%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
25.4%
Toneil Carter run for 4 yds to the Texas 14Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+3
25.4%
Toneil Carter run for 3 yds to the Texas 17Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+10
25.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 10 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
25.1%
Toneil Carter run for 15 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
24.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lorenzo Joe for 14 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
24.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 10 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
24.0%
Toneil Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+15
24.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lorenzo Joe for 15 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
24.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 5 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
24.0%
Chris Warren III pass incomplete to Lorenzo JoeSimilar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+15
18.3%
Lil'Jordan Humphrey 15 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Joshua Rowland Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 1:0421% → 29%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+52
20.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Blake Lynch for 52 yds to the Texas 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
21.4%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Texas 2Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
29.0%
John Lovett 2 Yd Run (Connor Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13DOWNS
12 plays · 38 yds · 3:1573% → 75%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
26.6%
Daniel Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 23Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+2
26.9%
Toneil Carter run for 2 yds to the Texas 25Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+10
27.2%
Shane Buechele run for 10 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
26.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+19
26.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lorenzo Joe for 19 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
25.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 8 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 2
OPP 38
0
25.0%
Lil'Jordan Humphrey pass incomplete to Dorian LeonardSimilar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 2
OPP 38
0
25.1%
Lil'Jordan Humphrey run for no gain to the Bayl 38Similar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
24.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan HumphreySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14DOWNS
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
26.1%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
26.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Breckyn HagerSimilar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+5
25.7%
Charlie Brewer run for 5 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q2 5:14
4TH & 2
OWN 46
-18
25.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 18 yards to the Bayl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15TD
1 play · 28 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
16.9%
Shane Buechele run for 28 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0018% → 19%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
18.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 12 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
19.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 39Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 14
OWN 39
-5
18.3%
Brewer,Charlie pass complete to Holmes,Gavin for 14 yards to the UT47, out-of-bounds, PENALTY BU ineligible downfield on pass (Feuerbacher,J.) 5 yards to the BU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 19
OWN 34
+14
17.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Marques Jones for 14 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
19.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Gavin Holmes, broken up by Kris BoydSimilar
Q2 3:51
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
19.2%
Connor Martin punt for 34 yds, downed at the Texas 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1183% → 84%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
16.7%
Chris Warren III run for 3 yds to the Texas 21Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+5
16.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 5 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 2
OWN 26
-2
17.0%
Toneil Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 24Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
16.3%
Michael Dickson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18END OF HALF
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0817% → 17%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
17.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 7 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+3
16.9%
Zach Smith run for 3 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
15.7%
Shane Buechele run for 5 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+1
15.7%
Toneil Carter run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
50
0
15.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Armanti Foreman, broken up by Verkedric VaughnsSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
50
0
16.6%
Michael Dickson punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0017% → 18%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
17.1%
Terence Williams run for 7 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
17.8%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
17.3%
Terence Williams run for 5 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+2
17.9%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
18.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
17.7%
Connor Martin punt for 40 yds , Reggie Hemphill-Mapps returns for no gain to the Texas 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
15.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 6 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-1
14.8%
Shane Buechele run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 5
OWN 27
-8
15.1%
Shane Buechele sacked by Ira Lewis for a loss of 8 yards to the Texas 19Similar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 13
OWN 19
0
15.9%
Michael Dickson punt for 54 yds, downed at the Bayl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0015% → 16%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
15.2%
Charlie Brewer run for 7 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+13
15.8%
John Lovett run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 16 John Lovett fumbled, forced by Charles Omenihu, recovered by Texas John Bonney , return for 13 yds to the Bayl 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23FG
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:3288% → 90%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
11.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 4 yds to the Bayl 12Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+10
11.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Cade Brewer for 10 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
11.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Collin Johnson, broken up by Grayland ArnoldSimilar
Q3 8:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
11.9%
Toneil Carter run for 1 yd to the Bayl 1Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
12.2%
TEXAS Penalty, false start (Daniel Young) to the Bayl 6Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
12.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lorenzo Joe for 5 yds to the Bayl 1Similar
Q3 5:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
10.4%
Joshua Rowland 18 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Trevor WhiteSimilar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
11.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Jordan FeuerbacherSimilar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
11.6%
Zach Smith run for 7 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 5:55
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
11.9%
Connor Martin punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Reggie Hemphill-Mapps at the Texas 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25INT
7 plays · 50 yds · 1:5690% → 92%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
9.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 5 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+28
9.7%
Toneil Carter run for 28 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
9.1%
Toneil Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+25
9.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 25 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
8.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 3 yds to the Bayl 12Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-10
7.9%
Carter, Toneil rush for 12 yards to the BU0, clock 02:55, PENALTY UT holding (Cuney, Terrell) 10 yards to the BU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 17
OPP 22
+20
8.2%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted Grayland Arnold return for 20 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
10.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
10.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trevor White for 5 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+1
11.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the Bayl 28Similar
Q3 2:43
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
10.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Trevor WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 27TD
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:5694% → 98%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
6.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Toneil Carter for 7 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+2
6.5%
Toneil Carter run for 2 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+19
2.1%
Toneil Carter run for 19 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 28DOWNS
15 plays · 53 yds · 4:363% → 2%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
2.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 3 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+21
2.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 21 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
3.1%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
3.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 5 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+9
3.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trevor White for 9 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-14
3.2%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 14 yards to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 24
OWN 49
+13
2.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 13 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+3
3.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trevor White for 3 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+9
3.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Marques Jones for 9 yds to the Texas 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
3.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 4 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
3.5%
Charlie Brewer run for no gain to the Texas 22Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
2.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tony Nicholson, broken up by Malcolm RoachSimilar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 6
OPP 22
0
2.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 29PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:3199% → 99%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
1.1%
Toneil Carter run for no gain to the Texas 22Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+8
1.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 8 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+21
1.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Daniel Young for 21 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
1.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 6 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+1
0.9%
Shane Buechele run for 1 yd to the Bayl 42Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+2
1.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Daniel Young for 2 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 6:39
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
0.6%
Michael Dickson punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 30PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
1.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Blake Blackmar) to the Bayl 5Similar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 14
OWN 5
+1
1.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd to the Bayl 6Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 13
OWN 6
+8
1.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 8 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+14
1.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 14 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-8
1.2%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Jeffrey McCulloch for a loss of 8 yards to the Bayl 20Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 18
OWN 20
+2
1.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 2 yds to the Bayl 22 BAYLOR Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 16
OWN 22
-12
1.1%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Malik Jefferson for a loss of 12 yards to the Bayl 10Similar
Q4 6:32
4TH & 28
OWN 10
0
1.1%
Connor Martin punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Reggie Hemphill-Mapps at the Texas 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 31TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
0.4%
Daniel Young run for 19 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
0.4%
Daniel Young run for 1 yd to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+31
0.1%
Daniel Young run for 31 yds for a TD BAYLOR Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 32DOWNS
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
0.1%
Obim Okeke run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 35Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+11
0.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jayson Clements for 11 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+5
0.1%
Obim Okeke run for 5 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
0.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jayson ClementsSimilar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-5
0.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 15
OWN 46
0
0.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jayson ClementsSimilar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+11
0.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trevor White for 11 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q4 1:57
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
0.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jared AtkinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:51
Shane Buechele run for 28 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)
-9
TD · Q2 8:38
John Lovett 2 Yd Run (Connor Martin Kick)
+7.6
TD · Q2 9:42
Lil'Jordan Humphrey 15 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Joshua Rowland Kick)
-5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com