Try the model
WVU

West Virginia 38 at Baylor 36

BAY
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · McLane Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreWVU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:20 · Zach Smith pass incomplete to Tony Nicholson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Home team on offense−0.9Pregame prior−21.2Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:42: Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 53 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK) — WVU win probability +11.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:39: John Lovett run for 7 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +10.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:00: Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 40 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK) — WVU win probability +11.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:50: Trestan Ebner run for 40 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +11.8 pts (now 20%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:17: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — BAY win probability +21.2 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 9 of 12WVU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00BAY 4th & 1 at WVU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    25.5%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 15:00BAY 4th & 4 at WVU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    25.7%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:03WVU 4th & 5 at BAY 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:20BAY 4th & 9 at WVU 34, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.3%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    30.3%
    47% to make
    Punt
    30.1%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:36BAY 4th & 6 at WVU 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    22.6%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:36WVU 4th & 22 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−1.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:08BAY 4th & 10 at WVU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−4.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:49WVU 4th & 7 at WVU 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:34BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 46, down 4
    Close callPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:42BAY 4th & 24 at BAY 27, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−2.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:04WVU 4th & 8 at WVU 32, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−1.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:00BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 32, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:47BAY 4th & 11 at BAY 40, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:17WVU 4th & 10 at WVU 42, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:50WVU 4th & 13 at WVU 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−2.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:51BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 49, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.6%−1.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:07BAY 4th & 6 at WVU 6, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.5%−2.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−6.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:07WVU 4th & 7 at WVU 49, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:56BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 30, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.1%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WVU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 0:29WVU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:01WVU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:42WVU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:39BAY Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:00WVU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:47WVU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:31BAY Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:50BAY Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:17BAY Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    11.4%−18.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
24.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-1
24.9%
Terence Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-8
24.9%
Zach Smith sacked by Al-Rasheed Benton for a loss of 8 yards to the Bayl 41 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 41
+18
24.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 18 yds to the WVirg 41Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
24.9%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the WVirg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
24.9%
Terence Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 41
-1
24.9%
Terence Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 42
+9
24.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 9 yds to the WVirg 33Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 33
0
24.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Pooh StricklinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 2FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:1573% → 72%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
27.0%
Justin Crawford run for 6 yds to the WVirg 39Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+1
26.8%
Justin Crawford run for 1 yd to the WVirg 40Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+32
26.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 32 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
26.6%
Justin Crawford run for 6 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+7
26.6%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 7 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
26.6%
Justin Crawford run for 4 yds to the Bayl 11Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 6
OPP 11
-1
26.6%
Justin Crawford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 12Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+2
27.5%
Will Grier pass complete to Justin Crawford for 2 yds to the Bayl 10Similar
Q1 7:03
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
27.6%
Mike Molina 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3DOWNS
12 plays · 41 yds · 3:4328% → 29%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
27.7%
Zach Smith sacked by Lamonte McDougle for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 20 BAYLOR Penalty, intentional grounding (Zach Smith) to the Bayl 20Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+19
27.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 19 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
28.1%
Smith,Zach pass incomplete to Mims,Denzel, PENALTY WVU pass interference (Daniels, Mike) 15 yards to the WVU46, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
28.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the WVirg 41Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+3
28.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the WVirg 38Similar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+3
28.5%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the WVirg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
28.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the WVirg 34Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
28.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Gavin Holmes for no gain to the WVirg 34Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
29.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Gavin HolmesSimilar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 9
OPP 34
0
29.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 4TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 2:4171% → 75%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
28.9%
Justin Crawford run for 1 yd to the WVirg 35Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
29.0%
Will Grier pass incomplete to David Sills V, broken up by Verkedric VaughnsSimilar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+9
29.5%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 9 yds to the WVirg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
28.5%
Justin Crawford run for 5 yds to the WVirg 49Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+4
28.4%
Justin Crawford run for 4 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
28.3%
Justin Crawford run for 2 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
28.2%
Will Grier pass incomplete to David Sills VSimilar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
28.3%
Will Grier pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 5 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+5
28.4%
Grier, Will pass incomplete to White, Ka'Raun, PENALTY BU pass interference (Vaughns,V.) 5 yards to the BU35, 1ST DOWN WVU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
24.6%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 35 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:5325% → 28%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
24.7%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+26
24.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 26 yds to the WVirg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
25.7%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the WVirg 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+6
25.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 6 yds to the WVirg 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+16
25.7%
Smith,Zach pass complete to Hasty,JaMycal for 1 yard to the WVU39 (White, Kyzir), PENALTY WVU roughing passer (Benton, A.) 16 yards to the WVU24, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
26.3%
Smith,Zach pass incomplete to Mims,Denzel, PENALTY WVU pass interference (Daniels, Mike) 14 yards to the WVU10, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
26.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the WVirg 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
26.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Mike Daniels Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
25.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 3 yds to the WVirg 6Similar
Q2 10:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
28.4%
Connor Martin 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
26.2%
Kennedy McKoy run for 3 yds to the WVirg 35Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+16
26.1%
Will Grier pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for 16 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
25.2%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 5 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+6
25.0%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 6 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
25.1%
Will Grier sacked by James Lynch for a loss of 10 yards to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 20
OPP 48
+6
25.9%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 6 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 14
OPP 42
-12
26.2%
Will Grier pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for 3 yds to the WVirg 39 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Matt Jones) to the WVirg 46Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 26
OWN 46
+4
26.8%
Will Grier run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 22
50
0
27.2%
Billy Kinney punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7FG
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:0726% → 31%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-9
26.3%
Zach Smith sacked by Adam Shuler II for a loss of 9 yards to the Bayl 6Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 19
OWN 6
+24
25.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 24 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+45
26.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 45 yds to the WVirg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
29.8%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
29.7%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
28.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q2 4:08
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
31.3%
Connor Martin 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:1969% → 69%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
30.8%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 13 yds to the WVirg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
29.5%
Martell Pettaway run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 37Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+4
30.4%
Martell Pettaway run for 4 yds to the WVirg 41Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
29.1%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Gary JenningsSimilar
Q2 2:49
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+14
30.7%
Billy Kinney punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 40 , Tony Nicholson returns for 14 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
31.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 3 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
31.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
30.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JaMycal HastySimilar
Q2 2:34
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
29.8%
Connor Martin punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 1:0470% → 82%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
29.8%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Gary Jennings, broken up by Grayland ArnoldSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
30.1%
Kennedy McKoy run for 11 yds to the WVirg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+22
29.1%
Will Grier pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 22 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
26.9%
Will Grier run for 6 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+14
26.5%
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 14 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
25.6%
Kennedy McKoy run for 5 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+6
27.0%
Kennedy McKoy run for 6 yds to the Bayl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
18.3%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 16 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12TD
2 plays · 53 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
11.4%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 53 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
13.7%
John Lovett run for 11 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive holding (Lamonte McDougle) to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
14.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Gavin Holmes) to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 14:42
1ST & 15
OWN 36
-11
13.8%
Zach Smith sacked by Reese Donahue for a loss of 11 yards to the Bayl 25Similar
Q3 14:42
2ND & 26
OWN 25
+11
13.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 11 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 14:42
3RD & 15
OWN 36
-9
13.6%
Zach Smith sacked by Al-Rasheed Benton and Ezekiel Rose for a loss of 9 yards to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 14:42
4TH & 24
OWN 27
+42
13.5%
Connor Martin punt for 42 yds , Marcus Simms returns for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4089% → 90%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
10.9%
Justin Crawford run for 2 yds to the WVirg 32Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-2
10.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Justin Crawford for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 30Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+2
11.2%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 2 yds to the WVirg 32Similar
Q3 10:04
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
10.1%
Billy Kinney punt for 38 yds , R.J. Sneed returns for no gain to the Bayl 20 R.J. Sneed fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:1412% → 25%
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
12.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 10 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
12.4%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Corey Winfield) to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
13.3%
John Lovett run for 2 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-5
13.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Blake Blackmar) to the Bayl 42Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+56
12.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 56 yds to the WVirg 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
14.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WVirg 7Similar
Q3 7:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
25.0%
John Lovett run for 7 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3980% → 93%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.2%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Ka'Raun WhiteSimilar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
20.3%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Ka'Raun WhiteSimilar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
20.7%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Yodny Cajuste) to the WVirg 20Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+17
21.0%
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 17 yds to the WVirg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
19.9%
Tevin Bush run for 16 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
18.8%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 7 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+40
7.0%
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 40 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
10.9%
John Lovett run for 2 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+1
10.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to John Lovett for 1 yd to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
10.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
10.6%
Connor Martin punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Marcus Simms at the WVirg 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:4393% → 100%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
7.0%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 5 yds to the WVirg 25Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+7
7.0%
Martell Pettaway run for 7 yds to the WVirg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
7.0%
Martell Pettaway run for 6 yds to the WVirg 38Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+5
6.6%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 5 yds to the WVirg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+51
6.6%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 51 yds to the Bayl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.5%
Will Grier pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 6 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
0.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 14 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
0.8%
John Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
0.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
0.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete, broken up by David Long Jr.Similar
Q3 2:47
4TH & 11
OWN 40
+1
0.8%
Connor Martin punt for 39 yds , Marcus Simms returns for 1 yd to the WVirg 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:00100% → 99%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
0.5%
Kennedy McKoy run for 20 yds to the WVirg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
0.5%
Will Grier pass complete to Ka'Raun White for no gain to the WVirg 42Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
0.6%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Marcus Simms, broken up by Taion SellsSimilar
Q3 1:17
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
0.6%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Ka'Raun White, broken up by Harrison HandSimilar
Q3 1:17
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
0.6%
Billy Kinney punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:331% → 8%
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
0.5%
Charlie Brewer run for 10 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
0.5%
JaMycal Hasty run for 18 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
7.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 52 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 0:418% → 20%
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
8.0%
Charlie Brewer run for 9 yds to the WVirg 40Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+40
19.8%
Trestan Ebner run for 40 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
16.6%
Kennedy McKoy run for 3 yds to the WVirg 33Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-6
16.5%
Will Grier run for a loss of 6 yards to the WVirg 27Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 13
OWN 27
0
17.4%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Marcus Simms, broken up by Harrison HandSimilar
Q4 13:50
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
17.9%
Billy Kinney punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 6:0115% → 18%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
15.3%
Terence Williams run for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
16.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 11 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
16.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Gavin HolmesSimilar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
16.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the Bayl 42Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+7
15.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 7 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 9:51
4TH & 3
OWN 49
+7
13.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 7 yds to the WVirg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
15.8%
Brewer,Charlie pass incomplete to Mims,Denzel, PENALTY WVU pass interference (Battle, Elijah) 15 yards to the WVU29, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
18.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for 6 yds to the WVirg 23Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 4
OPP 23
0
18.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the WVirg 23Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+13
16.5%
Charlie Brewer run for 3 yds to the WVirg 20 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Corey Winfield) to the WVirg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
18.0%
John Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 11Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
17.7%
John Lovett run for no gain to the WVirg 11Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
16.0%
Charlie Brewer run for 5 yds to the WVirg 6Similar
Q4 6:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
17.5%
Connor Martin 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
9.6%
Kennedy McKoy run for 7 yds to the WVirg 40Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+6
8.7%
Elijah Wellman run for 6 yds to the WVirg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
8.7%
Elijah Wellman run for 3 yds to the WVirg 49Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
8.5%
Will Grier pass incomplete to David Sills VSimilar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
8.9%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Kennedy McKoySimilar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
10.2%
Billy Kinney punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26TD
20 plays · 86 yds · 4:1713% → 31%
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
13.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 1 yd to the Bayl 15Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+3
12.8%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 18Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+7
12.5%
Charlie Brewer run for 7 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Mike Daniels Jr.Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
13.0%
Charlie Brewer run for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
13.3%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 30Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+15
6.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 15 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
9.0%
Charlie Brewer run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 5
50
+8
9.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 8 yds to the WVirg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
10.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Pooh Stricklin, broken up by Dravon Askew-HenrySimilar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+16
9.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 16 yds to the WVirg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
13.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+10
12.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 10 yds to the WVirg 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
13.9%
Brewer,Charlie pass incomplete to Stricklin,Pooh, PENALTY WVU pass interference (Preston, Xavier) 14 yards to the WVU2, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-12
14.3%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Xavier Preston for a loss of 12 yards to the WVirg 14Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+5
8.3%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the WVirg 9Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
10.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Dravon Askew-HenrySimilar
Q4 0:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
31.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
6.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:17
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+21.2
TD · Q3 6:00
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 40 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)
-11.8
TD · Q4 13:50
Trestan Ebner run for 40 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)
+11.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com