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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Cole Moos punt for 39 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q1 11:41: Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the TCU 32 — KU win probability +0.3 pts (now 1%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
- FG · Q1 1:41: Jonathan Song 19 yd FG GOOD — KU win probability +0.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:53: Kenny Hill pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 22 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +1.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:54: Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 67 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:34: Kenny Hill pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 15 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song PAT MISSED) — TCU win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7KU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
- Q1 15:00KU 4th & 19 at KU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q1 8:28KU 4th & 10 at KU 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q1 7:09TCU 4th & 1 at KU 18, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.7%71% to convertField goal97.5%−0.179% to makePunt97.1%−0.6average punt
- Q1 1:41TCU 4th & 1 at KU 1, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snapGo for it96.9%59% to convertField goalTheir call96.7%−0.294% to makePunt96.2%−0.7average punt
- Q1 1:41KU 4th & 11 at KU 24, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.8%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q2 15:00TCU 4th & 1 at KU 44, up 10Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snapGo for it96.8%70% to convertField goal96.5%−0.327% to makePuntTheir call96.6%−0.2average punt
- Q2 12:53KU 4th & 11 at KU 7, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.1%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.3%average punt
- Q2 8:46KU 4th & 18 at KU 20, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.512% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q2 4:54KU 4th & 8 at KU 27, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q2 1:17TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 49, up 24Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.6%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.5%−0.1average punt
- Q3 12:28KU 4th & 25 at KU 3, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.35% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 6:46KU 4th & 2 at KU 43, down 37Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 6:39KU 4th & 7 at KU 40, down 43Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 4:43TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 45, up 43Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 15:00KU 4th & 14 at KU 21, down 43Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 12:49TCU 4th & 11 at KU 45, up 43Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.127% to convertField goal99.9%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 10:35KU 4th & 2 at KU 20, down 43Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 8:54TCU 4th & 14 at KU 35, up 43Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.119% to convertField goal100.0%45% to makePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 4:50KU 4th & 5 at KU 39, down 43Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 8:28TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:53TCU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.2%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:54TCU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:34TCU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:02TCU Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKUDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
98.9%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Ben Johnson for 13 yds to the Kans 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD8 plays · 71 yds · 3:1399% → 99%
Q1 11:41
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+39
98.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 39 yds to the Kans 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
98.7%
TEAM run for no gain to the Kans 6 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TCU Kenny Hill , return for no gain to the Kans 6Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
TCUDrive 4FG13 plays · 52 yds · 5:2898% → 98%
KUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 0:1598% → 98%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+8
97.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Cole Hunt for 8 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+3
97.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Darius Anderson for 3 yds to the Kans 44Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
97.7%
Adam Nunez punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Steven Sims Jr. at the Kans 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:003% → 2%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-7
97.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the Kans 1 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Kans Peyton BenderSimilar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 17
OWN 1
+8
97.5%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Ben Johnson for 8 yds to the Kans 9Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 9
OWN 9
-2
97.6%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8TD6 plays · 35 yds · 2:1097% → 98%
Q2 11:03
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+18
97.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 18 yds to the Kans 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 12
OPP 21
-1
97.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Darius Anderson for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 22Similar
Q2 8:53
3RD & 13
OPP 22
+22
98.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 22 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 0:002% → 2%
TCUDrive 10TD5 plays · 76 yds · 2:1198% → 99%
KUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
TCUDrive 12PUNT9 plays · 43 yds · 2:0499% → 99%
KUDrive 13END OF HALF3 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
TCUDrive 14TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2699% → 100%
KUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 12:28
2ND & 16
OWN 12
-4
99.8%
Peyton Bender sacked by Ross Blacklock and Chris Bradley for a loss of 4 yards to the Kans 8Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 20
OWN 8
-5
99.8%
Peyton Bender sacked by Ross Blacklock and Ben Banogu for a loss of 5 yards to the Kans 3Similar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 25
OWN 3
+8
99.8%
Cole Moos punt for 50 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 8 yds to the Kans 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16TD5 plays · 45 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
99.8%
Hicks, Kyle rush for loss of 1 yard to the KU46, out-of-bounds (Dineen,Joe), PENALTY KU HM (Dineen,Joe) 15 yards to the KU30, 1ST DOWN TCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+26
99.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 26 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17PUNT RETURN TD5 plays · 8 yds · 2:160% → 0%
KUDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
TCUDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 4:43
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+2
99.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kenedy Snell for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 0:570% → 0%
TCUDrive 21PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 1:15100% → 100%
Q4 14:04
2ND & 2
50
+6
99.9%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Daythan Davis for 6 yds to the Kans 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 7
OPP 41
-5
99.9%
Shawn Robinson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Kans 45 Shawn Robinson fumbled, forced by Dorance Armstrong Jr.,Similar
Q4 12:49
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Adam Nunez punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Steven Sims Jr. at the Kans 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:35
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+8
99.9%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Kerr Johnson Jr. for 8 yds to the Kans 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-8
99.9%
Kenedy Snell run for 2 yds to the TCU 43 TCU Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the TCU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 24DOWNS7 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:50
4TH & 5
OWN 39
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 37 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Kans Carter StanleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25END OF GAME1 play · -11 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-11
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the Kans 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TCU Armanii GlaspieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:53
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 22 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)
+1
TD · Q3 12:34
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 15 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song PAT MISSED)
+0.8
TD · Q2 4:54
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 67 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)
+0.6