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ISU

Iowa State 31 at Texas Tech 13

TTU
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:53 · David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Home team on offense+0.5Score differential+0.0Pregame prior+12.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:40: Kyle Kempt pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 4 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ISU win probability +7.6 pts (now 51%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:26: Kyle Kempt pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 3 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ISU win probability +12.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Chris Francis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — ISU win probability +14.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:31: Nic Shimonek run for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK) — TTU win probability +14.9 pts (now 37%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:07: Nic Shimonek pass intercepted for a TD Marcel Spears Jr. return for 61 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ISU win probability +16.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 10:53ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:26TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:57ISU 4th & 5 at TTU 45, up 1
    Close callPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:22ISU 4th & 2 at TTU 4, up 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.4%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    32.3%−3.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:18TTU 4th & 5 at ISU 17, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    42.5%−4.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00TTU 4th & 21 at TTU 14, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−3.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:15ISU 4th & 4 at TTU 30, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    73.2%−1.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    71.4%−2.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:24ISU 4th & 8 at TTU 23, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    71.3%−8.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:31ISU 4th & 9 at ISU 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−2.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00TTU 4th & 5 at ISU 9, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.5%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    26.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−8.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:55ISU 4th & 5 at TTU 41, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    74.3%−1.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:56TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:07TTU 4th & 1 at ISU 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%−1.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:31ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 48, up 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:38TTU 4th & 18 at TTU 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:36TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:26ISU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:40ISU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:26ISU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:31TTU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:07ISU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.3%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
63.3%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Trever Ryen for 4 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
63.3%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 9 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+34
63.3%
Kyle Kempt pass intercepted Justus Parker return for 34 yds to the IowSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2TD
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:0864% → 64%
Q1 13:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
63.5%
Desmond Nisby run for 2 yds to the IowSt 5Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
63.5%
Desmond Nisby run for 1 yd to the IowSt 4Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
64.1%
Desmond Nisby run for 4 yds for a TD, (Michael Ewton PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:1036% → 38%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.8%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
63.8%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
63.8%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 3 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q1 10:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
64.4%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
64.3%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 19 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
63.9%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 6 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
63.9%
Kyle Kempt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+10
64.0%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 10 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
63.8%
Kyle Kempt run for 1 yd to the TexTc 29Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+7
63.8%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 7 yds to the TexTc 22Similar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+3
63.9%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the TexTc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
63.7%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 5 yds to the TexTc 14Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+1
63.7%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the TexTc 13Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+13
61.8%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 13 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.2%
Justin Stockton run for 5 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
62.4%
Tre King run for 1 yd to the TexTc 31Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-3
62.1%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 28Similar
Q1 6:26
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
61.7%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 72 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:0037% → 38%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+30
62.6%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Trever Ryen for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
50
+4
61.5%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Trever Ryen for 4 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+1
61.5%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the TexTc 45Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
61.6%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Marchie MurdockSimilar
Q1 4:57
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
62.2%
Colin Downing punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6FUMBLE
9 plays · 14 yds · 3:4862% → 61%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
61.8%
Justin Stockton run for no gain to the TexTc 20Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
61.8%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 5 yds to the TexTc 25Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+8
61.6%
Nic Shimonek run for 8 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
62.0%
Justin Stockton run for 9 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 1
OWN 42
0
62.9%
Justin Stockton run for no gain to the TexTc 42Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
62.7%
Desmond Nisby run for 2 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-7
62.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Quan Shorts for a loss of 7 yards to the TexTc 37Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 17
OWN 37
-1
61.9%
Tre King run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 36
-2
61.1%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Justin Stockton for a loss of 2 yards Justin Stockton fumbled, forced by JaQuan Bailey, recovered by IowSt D'Andre PayneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7FG
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:1841% → 42%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
58.9%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+19
58.8%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 19 yds Kyle Kempt fumbled, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
58.8%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the TexTc 9Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+5
58.8%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 5 yds to the TexTc 4Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 2
OPP 4
0
59.4%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q2 12:22
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+22
58.4%
Garrett Owens 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.4%
Desmond Nisby run for no gain to the TexTc 25 Desmond Nisby fumbled, forced by Vernell Trent, recovered by IowSt Willie HarveySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:3443% → 51%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
57.0%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 13 yds to the TexTc 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
57.0%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 7 yds to the TexTc 5Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+1
57.0%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the TexTc 4Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
49.4%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 4 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10MISSED FG
17 plays · 58 yds · 6:2251% → 44%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.7%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 4 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
51.0%
Tre King run for 4 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
50.8%
Tre King run for 3 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
51.3%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 3 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+7
51.6%
Tre King run for 7 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
51.9%
Nic Shimonek pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
51.6%
Tre King run for 5 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+5
52.0%
Tre King run for 5 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
52.5%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 11 yds to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
53.6%
Tre King run for 5 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+6
53.6%
Tre King run for 6 yds to the IowSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
53.6%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Demarcus Felton for 1 yd to the IowSt 21Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+3
53.6%
Desmond Nisby run for 3 yds to the IowSt 18Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+1
52.5%
Desmond Nisby run for 1 yd to the IowSt 17Similar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+34
44.0%
Matthew Cluck 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 3:5256% → 78%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
44.2%
David Montgomery run for 7 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+14
43.6%
David Montgomery run for 14 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
42.9%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Trever Ryen for 2 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+15
43.0%
Kempt, Kyle pass incomplete to Butler, Hakeem, PENALTY TTU pass interference (Dorsey, V.) 15 yards to the TTU42, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
42.7%
Kyle Kempt run for 4 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+3
42.5%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+5
42.9%
Joel Lanning run for 5 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+27
42.6%
Kyle Kempt run for 27 yds to the TexTc 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
37.5%
Joel Lanning run for 1 yd to the TexTc 2Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
37.1%
Joel Lanning run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 3Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
22.2%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 3 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:2028% → 38%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
28.2%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Derrick Willies for 6 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+9
29.9%
Tre King run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
50
0
38.1%
Nic Shimonek pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
26.7%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
26.5%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for no gain to the TexTc 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-10
26.2%
Nic Shimonek sacked by J.D. Waggoner for a loss of 10 yards to the TexTc 14Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
26.3%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14MISSED FG
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:5179% → 82%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
21.0%
David Montgomery run for 10 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
21.0%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+3
20.3%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
20.6%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+5
22.8%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 5 yds to the TexTc 25 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
20.3%
David Montgomery run for 5 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-3
20.3%
David Montgomery run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 23Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
21.2%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Deshaunte Jones, broken up by Justus ParkerSimilar
Q3 9:24
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
18.5%
Garrett Owens 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15TD
14 plays · 77 yds · 3:5321% → 37%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
20.6%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 15 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
21.7%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 19 yds to the IowSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
22.8%
Tre King run for 3 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
22.6%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+12
22.5%
Nic Shimonek run for 12 yds to the IowSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
23.5%
Tre King run for no gain to the IowSt 28Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
21.6%
Tre King run for 6 yds to the IowSt 22Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+5
21.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 5 yds to the IowSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
22.0%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 22Similar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+14
21.6%
Tre King run for 14 yds to the IowSt 8Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+2
22.0%
Tre King run for 2 yds to the IowSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
22.0%
Desmond Nisby run for 4 yds to the IowSt 2Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
36.9%
Nic Shimonek run for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
30.5%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the IowSt 26Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
30.7%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Marchie MurdockSimilar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
31.0%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q3 5:31
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+3
31.9%
Colin Downing punt for 52 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 3 yds to the TexTc 29 TEXAS TECH Penalty, illegal block (Willie Sykes) to the TexTc 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17DOWNS
14 plays · 76 yds · 4:3429% → 27%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
29.2%
Tre King run for 1 yd to the TexTc 16Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+6
29.2%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 6 yds to the TexTc 22Similar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+7
29.0%
Nic Shimonek run for 7 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
30.2%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+13
29.5%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Tre King for 13 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
31.3%
Tre King run for 3 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+8
31.7%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 8 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
32.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 18 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
35.2%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 5 yds to the IowSt 24Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+10
35.2%
Tre King run for 10 yds to the IowSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
35.2%
Demarcus Felton run for 3 yds to the IowSt 11Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+3
35.2%
Demarcus Felton run for 3 yds to the IowSt 8Similar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 4
OPP 8
-1
33.2%
Nic Shimonek run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 9Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 9
0
27.3%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 50 yds · 0:0075% → 76%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
25.1%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Trever Ryen for 1 yd to the IowSt 10Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+21
24.0%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 21 yds to the IowSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
23.4%
David Montgomery run for 7 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+16
22.2%
David Montgomery run for 16 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
21.6%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Marchie Murdock, broken up by Justus ParkerSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
21.6%
David Montgomery run for 5 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
21.9%
Kyle Kempt run for no gain to the TexTc 41Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
23.7%
Colin Downing punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19INT TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 1:4919% → 7%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
19.3%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 20 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
21.0%
Tre King run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 39Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+5
20.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 5 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
20.2%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Ja'Deion High, broken up by Brian PeavySimilar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+12
19.3%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 12 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
22.8%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 11 yds to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+61
6.8%
Nic Shimonek pass intercepted for a TD Marcel Spears Jr. return for 61 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
5.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 8 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-4
5.7%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Tre King for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 29Similar
Q4 9:07
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
5.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 6 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
5.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 17 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
6.0%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
6.0%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q4 9:07
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+9
5.7%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 9 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q4 9:07
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
6.1%
Tre King run for no gain to the IowSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4397% → 98%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
2.9%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Allen Lazard, broken up by Octavious MorganSimilar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
2.9%
David Montgomery run for 8 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+1
1.7%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the IowSt 48Similar
Q4 6:31
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
1.7%
Colin Downing punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
2.8%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 4 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+13
2.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Derrick Willies for 13 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
2.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for no gain to the TexTc 37Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-8
2.9%
Nic Shimonek sacked by Carson Lensing for a loss of 8 yards to the TexTc 29Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 18
OWN 29
0
2.8%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete, broken up by Marcel Spears Jr. Nic Shimonek fumbled,Similar
Q4 5:38
4TH & 18
OWN 29
0
2.8%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Trever Ryen at the IowSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23END OF GAME
6 plays · 72 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+58
1.2%
David Montgomery run for 58 yds to the TexTc 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
0.9%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 7 yds to the TexTc 9Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+2
0.9%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the TexTc 7Similar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+2
0.9%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 2 yds to the TexTc 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
0.9%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the TexTc 3Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
0.9%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the TexTc 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:07
Nic Shimonek pass intercepted for a TD Marcel Spears Jr. return for 61 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
-16.1
TD · Q3 5:31
Nic Shimonek run for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK)
+14.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Chris Francis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-14.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com