2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreTTU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:24 · Dominic Panazzolo punt for 41 yds , Marcus Simms returns for 4 yds to the WVirg 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:35: T.J. Vasher 53 Yd pass from Nic Shimonek (Michael Barden Kick) — TTU win probability +11.5 pts (now 55%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:11: Tre King 30 Yd Run (Michael Barden Kick) — TTU win probability +15.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:07: David Sills V 8 Yd pass from Will Grier (Mike Molina Kick) — WVU win probability +16.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:03: Ka'Raun White 32 Yd pass from Will Grier (Will Grier Pass to David Sills V for Two-Point Conversion) — WVU win probability +31.9 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q4 9:14: Ka'Raun White 17 Yd pass from Will Grier (Mike Molina Kick) — WVU win probability +34.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TTU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 13:26WVU 4th & 4 at WVU 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snapGo for it65.6%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.6%average punt
- Q1 3:55WVU 4th & 14 at TTU 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snapGo for it59.9%−0.418% to convertField goalTheir call60.3%66% to makePunt58.6%−1.7average punt
- Q2 14:55TTU 4th & 3 at WVU 26, up 4Close callKicked a field goal · 38.7% before the snapGo for it38.8%52% to convertField goalTheir call38.4%−0.464% to makePunt35.6%−3.2average punt
- Q2 13:29WVU 4th & 18 at WVU 18, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snapGo for it58.6%−1.712% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.3%average punt
- Q2 6:10TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 34, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call43.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt42.1%−1.0average punt
- Q2 2:41WVU 4th & 24 at WVU 8, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snapGo for it38.3%−2.96% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.2%average punt
- Q3 12:24TTU 4th & 13 at TTU 19, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snapGo for it58.3%−2.319% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.6%average punt
- Q3 11:16WVU 4th & 2 at TTU 48, down 11Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 38.5% before the snapGo for it39.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.8%−1.3average punt
- Q3 1:52TTU 4th & 7 at WVU 19, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.9% before the snapGo for it71.1%−0.835% to convertField goalTheir call71.9%77% to makePunt64.0%−8.0average punt
- Q4 14:40TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 31, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.7% before the snapGo for it73.4%−3.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.4%average punt
- Q4 12:06TTU 4th & 8 at TTU 27, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snapGo for it53.1%−2.633% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.8%average punt
- Q4 9:28WVU 4th & 1 at TTU 18, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call47.0%71% to convertField goal44.7%−2.379% to makePunt28.5%−18.5average punt
- Q4 6:54TTU 4th & 22 at TTU 6, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snapGo for it17.8%−4.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.0%average punt
- Q4 2:08TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 35, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.6%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 12:53TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call34.9%97% to makeGo for two34.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 12:07WVU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.6%97% to makeGo for two65.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:58TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.6%97% to makeGo for two36.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:58TTU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.2%97% to makeGo for two48.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:44WVU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.5%97% to makeGo for two57.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:35TTU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.5%97% to makeGo for two53.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:11TTU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.8%97% to makeGo for two77.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:07WVU Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call28.6%97% to makeGo for two28.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:03WVU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick39.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call38.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:14WVU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.2%97% to makeGo for two70.8%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 3:23WVU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call95.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two95.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3464% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.2%
Will Grier pass complete to Justin Crawford for 3 yds to the WVirg 28Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
64.1%
Will Grier pass complete to Elijah Wellman for 3 yds to the WVirg 31Similar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+2
64.0%
Billy Kinney punt for 43 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 2 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2TD2 plays · 72 yds · 0:3336% → 37%
WVUDrive 3TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4663% → 64%
TTUDrive 4TD13 plays · 63 yds · 4:0936% → 39%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
63.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for a loss of 2 yards Cameron Batson fumbled, forced by Kyzir White, recovered by TexTc Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+25
63.8%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 10 yds to the WVirg 45 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Xavier Preston) to the WVirg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
63.5%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 10 yds to the WVirg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
63.3%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Justin Stockton for 11 yds to the WVirg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+13
63.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 13 yds to the WVirg 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
63.0%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Justin Stockton) to the WVirg 6Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
60.6%
Dylan Cantrell 6 Yd pass from Nic Shimonek (Michael Barden Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 5FG13 plays · 50 yds · 4:0361% → 61%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
61.3%
Will Grier pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 8 yds to the WVirg 33Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+15
61.0%
Grier, Will pass incomplete to Jennings, Gary, PENALTY TEXASTECH pass interference (Johnson, Jah'Shawn) 15 yards to the WESTVIR48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTVIR.Similar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
61.5%
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 7 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+9
61.6%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 9 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-9
61.5%
Will Grier sacked by Eli Howard for a loss of 9 yards to the TexTc 45Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 19
OPP 45
+11
60.8%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 11 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+13
61.1%
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 13 yds to the TexTc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6MISSED FG13 plays · 49 yds · 4:0038% → 40%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
60.1%
Shimonek, Nic pass incomplete to Coutee, Keke, PENALTY WESTVIR holding (Avery, Toyous) 10 yards to the WESTVIR44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASTECH.Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
59.5%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Justin Stockton for 6 yds to the WVirg 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 1:1861% → 60%
TTUDrive 8TD6 plays · 45 yds · 2:3141% → 49%
WVUDrive 9TD10 plays · 68 yds · 3:1452% → 62%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
52.3%
Will Grier pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 6 yds to the WVirg 38Similar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
51.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 9 yds to the TexTc 48Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+4
52.6%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 4 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+25
53.7%
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 11 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Willie Sykes) to the TexTc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+13
53.5%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 7 yds to the TexTc 12 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Vaughnte Dorsey) to the TexTc 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0943% → 55%
Q2 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.7%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Quan Shorts for 4 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11PUNT9 plays · -2 yds · 2:5446% → 42%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
46.4%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 3 yds to the WVirg 13Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+9
46.0%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 9 yds to the WVirg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 2
OWN 30
-15
45.2%
Grier, Will pass complete to Simms, Marcus for 5 yards to the WESTVIR35, PENALTY WESTVIR personal foul (McKoy, Kennedy) 15 yards to the WESTVIR15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 17
OWN 15
-7
43.6%
Grier, Will pass complete to White, Ka'Raun for 17 yards to the WESTVIR32, PENALTY WESTVIR holding (Sills, Josh) 7 yards to the WESTVIR8, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12MISSED FG16 plays · 40 yds · 2:3658% → 65%
Q2 2:02
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+12
41.3%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 12 yds to the WVirg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
39.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Demarcus Felton for 12 yds to the WVirg 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-9
39.3%
Desmond Nisby run for 1 yd to the WVirg 16 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Paul Stawarz) to the WVirg 26Similar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 0
OPP 12
+6
37.2%
Shimonek, Nic pass intercepted by Daniels Jr., Mike in the endzone, PENALTY WESTVIR roughing passer (Preston, Xavier) 6 yards to the WESTVIR6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASTECH.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14PUNT7 plays · -3 yds · 2:2960% → 61%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
40.0%
Shimonek, Nic pass complete to Shorts, Quan for 2 yards to the TEXASTECH24, PENALTY TEXASTECH holding (Batson, Cameron) 10 yards to the TEXASTECH12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 20
OWN 12
-6
39.8%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Travis Bruffy) to the TexTc 6Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 20
OWN 12
+11
39.5%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 11 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 9
OWN 23
-4
39.4%
Nic Shimonek sacked by Ezekiel Rose for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 19Similar
Q3 12:24
4TH & 13
OWN 19
+4
39.2%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 41 yds , Marcus Simms returns for 4 yds to the WVirg 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4539% → 37%
TTUDrive 16TD6 plays · 80 yds · 2:0564% → 84%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+22
32.7%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 22 yds to the WVirg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 17TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0421% → 37%
Q3 8:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+23
20.7%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+3
20.6%
Grier, Will pass incomplete, PENALTY TEXASTECH pass interference (Sykes, Willie) 3 yards to the TEXASTECH38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTVIR.Similar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
20.6%
Grier, Will rush for 6 yards to the TEXASTECH32, PENALTY WESTVIR holding (Cajuste, Yodny) 10 yards to the TEXASTECH48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 20
OPP 48
+15
19.8%
Grier, Will pass incomplete to Sills V, David, PENALTY TEXASTECH pass interference (Parker, Justus) 15 yards to the TEXASTECH33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTVIR.Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+15
21.1%
Grier, Will pass incomplete to White, Ka'Raun, PENALTY TEXASTECH pass interference (Fields, Damarcus) 15 yards to the TEXASTECH15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTVIR.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18MISSED FG11 plays · 56 yds · 3:1570% → 73%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
30.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 22 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 11
OPP 23
-10
24.4%
Shimonek, Nic pass complete to Coutee, Keke for 10 yards to the WESTVIR13, PENALTY TEXASTECH holding (Bruffy, Travis) 10 yards to the WESTVIR33, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 19INT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:5125% → 22%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
24.8%
Will Grier pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 12 yds to the WVirg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-7
25.1%
Will Grier sacked by Broderick Washington Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the WVirg 25Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 17
OWN 25
-9
23.4%
Will Grier sacked by Kolin Hill for a loss of 9 yards to the WVirg 16Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 26
OWN 16
0
21.6%
Will Grier pass intercepted Desmon Smith return for no gain to the TexTc 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2078% → 76%
WVUDrive 21TD5 plays · 66 yds · 1:3723% → 55%
TTUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5756% → 55%
Q4 12:06
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+12
45.1%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 43 yds , Marcus Simms returns for 12 yds to the WVirg 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 23TD9 plays · 58 yds · 2:5248% → 78%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
48.1%
Will Grier pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 16 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
49.9%
Grier, Will pass incomplete to Sills V, David, PENALTY TEXASTECH pass interference (Dorsey, Vaughnte) 15 yards to the TEXASTECH27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTVIR.Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 6
OPP 23
-5
48.7%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Marcus Simms) to the TexTc 28Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+10
45.5%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 10 yds to the TexTc 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24PUNT5 plays · -12 yds · 2:2030% → 25%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
70.0%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Justin Stockton for 1 yd to the TexTc 19Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 7
OWN 21
-15
72.5%
Nic Shimonek sacked by Adam Shuler II for a loss of 15 yards to the TexTc 6Similar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 22
OWN 6
+7
74.6%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 46 yds , Marcus Simms returns for 7 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 25TD7 plays · 45 yds · 3:3182% → 97%
TTUDrive 26INT7 plays · 26 yds · 1:245% → 6%
Q4 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
95.3%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 3 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
94.8%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 12 yds to the WVirg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
94.4%
Nic Shimonek pass intercepted Kyzir White return for 1 yd to the WVirg 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 27END OF GAME3 plays · 7 yds · 1:4997% → 98%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:14
Ka'Raun White 17 Yd pass from Will Grier (Mike Molina Kick)
+34.1
TD · Q4 13:03
Ka'Raun White 32 Yd pass from Will Grier (Will Grier Pass to David Sills V for Two-Point Conversion)
+31.9
TD · Q3 5:07
David Sills V 8 Yd pass from Will Grier (Mike Molina Kick)
+16.1