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OU

Oklahoma 29 at Texas 24

TEX
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Cotton Bowl
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:49 · Austin Seibert punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Reggie Hemphill-Mapps at the TEXAS 7 TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Collin Johnson) to the Texas 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 183Pregame prior−0.3Home team on offense−32.9Garbage-time factor−14.3Score differential−5.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−13.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:11: Rodney Anderson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +7.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:14: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Kyle Porter for 16 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TEX win probability +8.1 pts (now 26%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:27: Chris Warren III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TEX win probability +16.4 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 8:01: Sam Ehlinger run for 8 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TEX win probability +29.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:53: Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 59 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — OU win probability +33.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 9OU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 14:01TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:31TEX 4th & 17 at TEX 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:49OU 4th & 7 at TEX 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−2.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:28TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:16OU 4th & 1 at TEX 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.3%−0.8
    80% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:55TEX 4th & 8 at OU 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    21.3%−0.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:07OU 4th & 5 at OU 48, up 17
    Close callPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:40TEX 4th & 6 at TEX 5, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:32OU 4th & 5 at TEX 11, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    76.0%−5.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:59OU 4th & 3 at TEX 31, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    78.2%−0.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    75.9%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:10OU 4th & 12 at TEX 19, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−1.8
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−6.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:03OU 4th & 3 at OU 43, up 6
    Close callPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:05TEX 4th & 1 at TEX 36, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%−3.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:43OU 4th & 7 at OU 5, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−3.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:26TEX 4th & 8 at OU 27, down 6
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.7%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    31.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    20.5%−10.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:25OU 4th & 6 at OU 31, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−2.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:52TEX 4th & 13 at OU 34, down 5
    Close callWent for it · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    16.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−3.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:49OU 4th & 3 at OU 41, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:14TEX 4th & 9 at TEX 29, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.8%
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.0%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:13OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:11OU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:14TEX Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:27TEX Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:01TEX Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−1.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:53OU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    74.0%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    74.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:4426% → 26%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
25.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Kyle Porter for 15 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
25.8%
Kyle Porter run for 5 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
25.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
25.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Lorenzo JoeSimilar
Q1 14:01
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
25.9%
Michael Dickson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by CeeDee Lamb at the Okla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 1:3774% → 74%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
26.0%
Trey Sermon run for 7 yds to the Okla 22Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+4
26.2%
Trey Sermon run for 4 yds to the Okla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
26.5%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Jeffery MeadSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+20
26.6%
Trey Sermon run for 20 yds to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
25.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jeff Badet for 54 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:3526% → 26%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.0%
Chris Warren III run for 2 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
26.0%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Ogbonnia Okoronkwo for 0 yards to the Texas 18 Sam Ehlinger fumbled, forced by Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, recovered by Texas Derek Kerstetter , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 10:31
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+51
26.0%
Michael Dickson punt for 51 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 6:2674% → 74%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
26.2%
Rodney Anderson run for 1 yd to the Okla 31Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+5
26.3%
Baker Mayfield run for 5 yds to the Okla 36Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+22
26.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 22 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
26.0%
Trey Sermon run for 9 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+5
25.9%
Trey Sermon run for 5 yds to the Texas 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
25.9%
Trey Sermon run for 2 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
26.0%
Rodney Anderson run for no gain to the Texas 26Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+15
26.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 15 yds Mark Andrews fumbled, forced by DeShon Elliott, recovered by Okla Mark Andrews for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
26.0%
Rodney Anderson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 16Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 15
OPP 16
+10
26.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jeffery Mead for 10 yds to the Texas 6Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 5
OPP 6
-2
26.3%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Malik Jefferson for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 8Similar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
26.5%
Austin Seibert 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1226% → 26%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
26.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
26.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd to the Texas 31Similar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
25.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:28
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
25.5%
Michael Dickson punt for 69 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:0474% → 81%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
26.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jeff Badet for 5 yds to the Okla 25Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-5
26.2%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, False Start (Cody Ford) to the Okla 20Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-10
26.5%
Mayfield, Baker pass incomplete to Jones, Mykel, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding (Brown, Orlando) 10 yards to the OKLAHOMA10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+20
26.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Marquise Brown for 20 yds to the Okla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+44
26.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 44 yds to the Texas 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
25.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 9 yds to the Texas 17Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 17
0
25.7%
Trey Sermon run for no gain to the Texas 17Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 1
OPP 17
0
26.0%
Dimitri Flowers run for no gain to the Texas 17Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+3
26.7%
Dimitri Flowers run for 3 yds to the Texas 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
26.0%
Trey Sermon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 15Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+15
19.0%
Rodney Anderson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7DOWNS
12 plays · 32 yds · 4:0021% → 23%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
20.7%
Toneil Carter run for 1 yd to the Texas 26Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
20.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 7 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
20.8%
Toneil Carter run for 3 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
20.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jerrod Heard for 7 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-5
21.2%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Zach Shackelford) to the Texas 38Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+17
20.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 17 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
20.9%
Chris Warren III run for 2 yds to the Okla 43Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-6
20.8%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Amani Bledsoe for a loss of 6 yards to the Okla 49Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 14
OPP 49
+6
20.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Cade Brewer for 6 yds to the Okla 43Similar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
22.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3875% → 74%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
24.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dimitri Flowers for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 3
50
+2
25.7%
Rodney Anderson run for 2 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
25.8%
Baker Mayfield run for no gain to the Texas 48Similar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-4
26.6%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, False Start (Creed Humphrey) to the Okla 48Similar
Q2 7:07
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
26.5%
Austin Seibert punt for 51 yds, downed at the Texas 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1921% → 19%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
21.0%
Kyle Porter run for no gain to the Texas 1Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+4
19.7%
Sam Ehlinger run for 4 yds to the Texas 5Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
19.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q2 5:40
4TH & 6
OWN 5
0
19.4%
Michael Dickson punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Okla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10FG
5 plays · 47 yds · 0:5774% → 78%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+42
25.7%
Trey Sermon pass complete to Marquise Brown for 42 yds to the Texas 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
24.1%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to CeeDee LambSimilar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
24.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Marquise Brown for 5 yds to the Texas 11Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
19.8%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Trey SermonSimilar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+28
22.3%
Austin Seibert 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11TD
6 plays · 42 yds · 1:0119% → 26%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
18.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 6 yds to the Okla 36Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+20
19.1%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Emmanuel Beal) to the Okla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
19.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jerrod HeardSimilar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
26.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Kyle Porter for 16 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12INT
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:0679% → 82%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
21.1%
Baker Mayfield run for 16 yds to the Okla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
20.0%
Rodney Anderson run for 21 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
17.0%
Rodney Anderson run for 1 yd to the Texas 37Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+6
16.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jeffery Mead for 6 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 3
OPP 31
0
16.8%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Mykel JonesSimilar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 3
OPP 31
0
18.1%
Baker Mayfield pass intercepted John Bonney return for no gain to the Texas 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13END OF HALF
11 plays · 52 yds · 0:5423% → 25%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
22.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 8 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+11
23.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
50
+23
24.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 23 yds to the Okla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
25.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Reggie Hemphill-MappsSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+8
25.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 8 yds to the Okla 19Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+2
23.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 2 yds to the Okla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
24.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
24.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+34
25.4%
Joshua Rowland 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14FG
15 plays · 56 yds · 5:4576% → 82%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
24.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 21 yds to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
22.8%
Trey Sermon run for 5 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 5
OPP 49
-7
22.7%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Charles Omenihu for a loss of 7 yards to the Okla 44Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+13
23.7%
Trey Sermon run for 13 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
21.8%
Trey Sermon run for 11 yds to the Texas 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
21.6%
Trey Sermon run for 2 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+6
21.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Marquise Brown for 6 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+7
22.6%
Trey Sermon run for 7 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
21.9%
Trey Sermon run for no gain to the Texas 17Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-10
22.0%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Orlando Brown) to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 20
OPP 27
0
22.2%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to CeeDee LambSimilar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 20
OPP 27
+8
23.0%
Baker Mayfield run for 8 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 12
OPP 19
+36
18.3%
Austin Seibert 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:3221% → 38%
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
20.5%
Toneil Carter run for 2 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
20.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+17
19.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Chris Warren III for 17 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
20.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Lorenzo JoeSimilar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
20.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 2 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+10
19.6%
Ehlinger, Sam pass incomplete to Leonard, Dorian, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding (Motley, Parnell) 10 yards to the OKLAHOMA44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
21.6%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the Okla 42Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+4
21.4%
Chris Warren III run for 4 yds to the Okla 38Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+27
21.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Chris Warren III for 15 yds to the Okla 23 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Emmanuel Beal) to the Okla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
23.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for 3 yds to the Okla 8Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+4
23.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for 4 yds to the Okla 4Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+3
20.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 3 yds to the Okla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
21.8%
Toneil Carter run for no gain to the Okla 1Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
38.2%
Chris Warren III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:0872% → 74%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
27.6%
Rodney Anderson run for 2 yds to the Okla 27Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
27.5%
Baker Mayfield run for 7 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
26.5%
Trey Sermon run for 2 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
26.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Trey Sermon for 7 yds to the Okla 43Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
24.5%
Rodney Anderson run for no gain to the Okla 43Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
24.8%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dimitri FlowersSimilar
Q3 1:03
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
26.1%
Austin Seibert punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Reggie Hemphill-Mapps at the Texas 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5033% → 32%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
32.8%
Toneil Carter run for no gain to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-1
32.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 26Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+10
30.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for 10 yds to the Texas 36Similar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
31.9%
Michael Dickson punt for 62 yds, downed at the Okla 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1272% → 71%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
28.2%
Trey Sermon run for no gain to the Okla 2Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
27.8%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Jeffery MeadSimilar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 10
OWN 2
+3
28.7%
Trey Sermon run for 3 yds to the Okla 5Similar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 7
OWN 5
-10
29.5%
Austin Seibert punt for 56 yds , Reggie Hemphill-Mapps returns for a loss of 10 yards to the Texas 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:0934% → 33%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+42
33.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 42 yds to the Okla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
40.8%
Chris Warren III run for 2 yds to the Okla 27Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
41.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
38.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin Johnson TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Jerrod Heard) declinedSimilar
Q4 11:26
4TH & 8
OPP 27
0
32.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan HumphreySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3076% → 75%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
24.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Trey Sermon for 4 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
22.6%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Mark AndrewsSimilar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
23.3%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Mark AndrewsSimilar
Q4 10:25
4TH & 6
OWN 31
+4
25.0%
Austin Seibert punt for 46 yds , Reggie Hemphill-Mapps returns for 4 yds to the Texas 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:1430% → 69%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
30.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd to the Texas 28Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+7
30.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 7 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+14
31.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for 14 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
34.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
34.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Reggie Hemphill-MappsSimilar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+22
31.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 22 yds to the Okla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+21
38.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Cade Brewer for 21 yds to the Okla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
68.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for 8 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 0:5242% → 80%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
57.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 8 yds to the Okla 30Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+11
54.0%
Rodney Anderson run for 11 yds to the Okla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
20.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 59 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23DOWNS
15 plays · 41 yds · 4:5429% → 20%
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for 3 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
32.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Chris Warren III for 15 yds to the Texas 43 TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Zach Shackelford) to the Texas 28Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+18
28.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for 18 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
30.8%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+2
31.3%
Shane Buechele run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 6
50
+8
31.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Chris Warren III for 8 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
32.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jerrod Heard for 3 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+8
32.2%
Shane Buechele run for 8 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-7
34.1%
Shane Buechele sacked by D.J. Ward for a loss of 7 yards to the Okla 38Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 17
OPP 38
-5
24.2%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Terrell Cuney) to the Okla 43Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 22
OPP 43
+9
24.0%
Sam Ehlinger run for 9 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 13
OPP 34
0
23.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 13
OPP 34
0
19.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:5192% → 94%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
8.4%
Trey Sermon run for 5 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
5.3%
Trey Sermon run for no gain to the Okla 39Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+2
5.0%
Trey Sermon run for 2 yds to the Okla 41Similar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+55
5.7%
Austin Seibert punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Reggie Hemphill-Mapps at the TEXAS 7 TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Collin Johnson) to the Texas 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25END OF GAME
9 plays · 44 yds · 0:4210% → 10%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+24
10.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 24 yds to the Texas 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
10.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan HumphreySimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
9.8%
Sam Ehlinger run for no gain to the Texas 34 Sam Ehlinger fumbled, recovered by Texas Sam Ehlinger Sam Ehlinger run for 6 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
9.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 4
OWN 34
-5
8.8%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Denzel Okafor) to the Texas 29Similar
Q4 0:14
4TH & 9
OWN 29
+13
8.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 13 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
10.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan HumphreySimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
10.1%
Chris Warren III run for a loss of 7 yards to the Texas 35 Chris Warren III fumbled, recovered by Texas Collin Johnson Collin Johnson run for a loss of 7 yards to the Texas 28, Sam Ehlinger continuation to the Texas 32, Lil'Jordan Humphrey continuation to the Texas 48.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:53
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 59 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-33.7
TD · Q4 8:01
Sam Ehlinger run for 8 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)
+29.6
TD · Q3 4:27
Chris Warren III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)
+16.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com