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BAY

Baylor 16 at Oklahoma State 59

OKST
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.2OKST 97.7%Connor Martin 40 yd FG GOODAWAY 13 - HOME 35 · Q3 11:47
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:47 · Connor Martin 40 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Pregame prior+26.8Home team on offense+19.4Score differential+15.0Blowout margin+0.7Garbage-time factor+4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:23: Trestan Ebner 0 Yd Run (Connor Martin Kick) — BAY win probability +2.3 pts (now 7%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 9:18: Connor Martin 38 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +1.6 pts (now 9%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:43: Justice Hill run for 79 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +2.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 5:14: Mason Rudolph run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +2.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:37: J.D. King run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +2.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4BAY made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 8:23OKST 4th & 16 at OKST 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:04BAY 4th & 8 at BAY 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:46OKST 4th & 1 at BAY 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    90.0%−0.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    90.1%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:06BAY 4th & 13 at BAY 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:18BAY 4th & 6 at OKST 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:43BAY 4th & 14 at BAY 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:14BAY 4th & 11 at BAY 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:47BAY 4th & 9 at OKST 23, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:24OKST 4th & 6 at BAY 23, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:56BAY 4th & 8 at OKST 12, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:24BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 37, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:37BAY 4th & 5 at OKST 38, down 43
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:52OKST 4th & 11 at BAY 37, up 43
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:45BAY 4th & 5 at OKST 35, down 43
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 8 of 8BAY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:23BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:06OKST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:44OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:43OKST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:14OKST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:37OKST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:24OKST Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:55OKST Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:37OKST Touchdown, up 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:375% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.3%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Bayl 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
95.3%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
95.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 7 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
95.3%
John Lovett run for 17 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
95.3%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the OKSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+11
95.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 11 yds to the OKSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
95.3%
John Lovett run for 6 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+12
95.3%
John Lovett run for 12 yds to the OKSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
95.3%
Terence Williams run for 11 yds to the OKSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
95.3%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the OKSt 4Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
95.3%
Zach Smith run for no gain to the OKSt 4Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
93.1%
Trestan Ebner 0 Yd Run (Connor Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
93.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 14 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
93.3%
Rudolph, Mason pass incomplete to Washington, J., PENALTY BU pass interference (Arnold,Grayland) 15 yards to the BU48, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
93.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-1
93.4%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
93.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Marcell AtemanSimilar
Q1 8:23
4TH & 11
OPP 49
-5
93.2%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, false start (Tre Flowers) to the OKSt 46Similar
Q1 8:23
4TH & 16
OWN 46
0
93.2%
Zach Sinor punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
92.7%
John Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 19Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+1
92.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to John Lovett for 1 yd to the Bayl 20Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+2
92.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 2 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 7:04
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
92.8%
Connor Martin punt for 41 yds , Jalen McCleskey returns for no gain to the OKSt 37 Jalen McCleskey fumbled, recovered by Bayl Timarcus DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · -11 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-8
91.5%
Zach Smith sacked by Justin Phillips for a loss of 8 yards to the OKSt 48 Zach Smith fumbled, recovered by OKSt Cole Walterscheid , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 1:4292% → 93%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
92.0%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
92.0%
Justice Hill run for 9 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
92.1%
Justice Hill run for no gain to the Bayl 43Similar
Q1 3:46
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+2
91.7%
Justice Hill run for 2 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
91.8%
Justice Hill run for 3 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+38
92.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 38 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
92.4%
Terence Williams run for 9 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-5
92.2%
Williams,Ter. rush for no gain to the BU34 (Osborne, D.), PENALTY BU false start 5 yards to the BU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
92.3%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the Bayl 34 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Bayl 24Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
92.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q1 3:06
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-2
92.5%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 3:06
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
92.6%
Connor Martin punt for 58 yds, downed at the OKSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:1392% → 93%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
91.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 18Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+17
91.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 17 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+45
92.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 45 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
92.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James Washington, broken up by Blake LynchSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-5
92.3%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 25
0
92.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 15
OPP 25
+25
93.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 25 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 5:267% → 9%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
93.0%
Denzel Mims run for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 19Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+15
93.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 15 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
93.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
93.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the Bayl 38Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+15
93.1%
Smith,Zach pass incomplete to Stricklin,Pooh, PENALTY OSU roughing passer (Walterscheid) 15 yards to the OSU47, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
92.7%
John Lovett run for 13 yds to the OKSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
92.5%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+5
92.4%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
92.4%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 6
OPP 20
0
92.4%
John Lovett run for no gain to the OKSt 20Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
92.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Pooh Stricklin, broken up by Rodarius WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:18
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+38
91.1%
Connor Martin 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:3591% → 94%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
90.7%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd to the OKSt 21Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+79
93.6%
Justice Hill run for 79 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
93.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Pooh StricklinSimilar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-4
93.7%
Terence Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 14
OWN 27
0
93.9%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
93.9%
Connor Martin punt for 54 yds, downed at the OKSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 2:1894% → 96%
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
93.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 8 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+33
93.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 33 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
93.8%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 11
OPP 41
0
93.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Tyron Johnson, broken up by Brian NanceSimilar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+40
93.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 40 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
93.8%
Justice Hill run for no gain to the Bayl 1Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.3%
Mason Rudolph run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
96.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Jordan Feuerbacher for 5 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+7
95.9%
Trestan Ebner run for 7 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
96.5%
Trestan Ebner run for 2 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
96.5%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-5
96.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Sam Tecklenburg) to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+2
96.6%
Zach Smith run for 2 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 5:14
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
96.6%
Connor Martin punt for 40 yds , Tylan Wallace returns for no gain to the OKSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:2196% → 99%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
95.9%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
95.9%
Justice Hill run for 5 yds to the OKSt 36Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+10
95.8%
Mason Rudolph run for 10 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
96.0%
J.D. King run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 6
50
+6
96.0%
J.D. King run for 6 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+43
96.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 43 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.1%
J.D. King run for no gain to the Bayl 1Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.6%
J.D. King run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
96.3%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · 54 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+58
98.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 58 yds James Washington fumbled, forced by Grayland Arnold, recovered by Bayl Grayland ArnoldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 2:522% → 2%
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
98.0%
Terence Williams run for no gain to the Bayl 26Similar
Q3 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
98.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q3 14:39
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+18
98.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 18 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
97.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Pooh StricklinSimilar
Q3 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+17
97.9%
Trestan Ebner run for 17 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
97.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 15 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
97.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Jordan FeuerbacherSimilar
Q3 14:39
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
97.7%
Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the OKSt 23Similar
Q3 14:39
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
97.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q3 11:47
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+40
97.7%
Connor Martin 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 2:2398% → 99%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
98.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 12 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.1%
Justice Hill run for no gain to the OKSt 37Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+12
98.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 12 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
98.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Chris Lacy, broken up by Harrison HandSimilar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
98.1%
Justice Hill run for 11 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
98.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 13 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
98.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James Washington, broken up by Blake LynchSimilar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
98.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+4
98.1%
Justice Hill run for 4 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q3 9:24
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
99.0%
Matt Ammendola 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18FG
9 plays · 66 yds · 2:281% → 2%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
98.6%
Terence Williams run for 9 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 1
OWN 31
0
98.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Jared Atkinson, broken up by Rodarius WilliamsSimilar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+16
98.6%
Terence Williams run for 16 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+39
98.6%
Terence Williams run for 39 yds to the OKSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
98.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the OKSt 12Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
98.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Pooh StricklinSimilar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
98.5%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Jared Atkinson, broken up by Ramon RichardsSimilar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+29
98.1%
Connor Martin 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3298% → 100%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Justice Hill for 7 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+68
99.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 68 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+20
99.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Jordan Feuerbacher for 20 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
99.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+1
99.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the Bayl 37Similar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
99.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Chad WhitenerSimilar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
99.7%
Connor Martin punt for 37 yds, downed at the OKSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21TD
15 plays · 74 yds · 4:26100% → 100%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
99.8%
J.D. King run for 10 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.8%
J.D. King run for 1 yd to the OKSt 37Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+13
99.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
50
+14
99.8%
J.D. King run for 14 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
99.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 10 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
99.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 9 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 1
OPP 17
0
99.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Tylan Wallace, broken up by Chris MillerSimilar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+5
99.8%
Justice Hill run for 5 yds to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Marcell Ateman, broken up by Harrison HandSimilar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+10
99.8%
J.D. King run for 10 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
99.8%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 7Similar
Q3 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
99.8%
J.D. King run for 1 yd to the Bayl 6Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
99.8%
Rudolph, Mason pass incomplete to Ateman, Marcell, PENALTY BU pass interference (Lynch,Blake) 4 yards to the BU2, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.8%
Mason Rudolph run for no gain to the Bayl 2Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
James Washington run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22INT
10 plays · 38 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Malik KearseSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.9%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 24Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+21
99.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 21 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Tony Nicholson pass incomplete to Charlie BrewerSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
99.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 6 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+12
99.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 12 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Gavin HolmesSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Trestan EbnerSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+15
99.9%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Gyasi Akem return for 15 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23TD
3 plays · 59 yds · 1:27100% → 100%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
99.9%
La'Darren Brown run for 7 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+12
99.9%
La'Darren Brown run for 12 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
99.9%
Taylor Cornelius run for 40 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24INT
8 plays · 41 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
99.9%
Charlie Brewer run for 9 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+10
99.9%
Terence Williams run for 10 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
99.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 17 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
99.9%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+2
99.9%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the OKSt 38Similar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Charlie Brewer pass intercepted Thabo Mwaniki return for no gain to the OKSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 49 yds · 5:07100% → 100%
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
Ja'Ron Wilson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 23Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+23
99.9%
Taylor Cornelius run for 23 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.9%
Ja'Ron Wilson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
99.9%
Ja'Ron Wilson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+12
99.9%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyrell Alexander for 12 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
99.9%
Ja'Ron Wilson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 14
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+3
99.9%
Taylor Cornelius run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 11
OPP 37
+6
99.9%
Ja'Ron Wilson run for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
100.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 12 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
100.0%
Charlie Brewer run for 5 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+12
100.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyler Jaynes for 12 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Charlie Brewer run for no gain to the OKSt 40Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
100.0%
Charlie Brewer run for 5 yds to the OKSt 35Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
100.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Gavin HolmesSimilar
Q4 2:45
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jalen PitreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
100.0%
Ja'Ron Wilson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:43
Justice Hill run for 79 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)
+2.9
TD · Q2 5:14
Mason Rudolph run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)
+2.5
TD · Q2 0:37
J.D. King run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com