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KSU

Kansas State 34 at Texas 40

TEX
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+5.1TEX 75.0%Joshua Rowland 34 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 24 · Q3 10:15
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:15 · Joshua Rowland 34 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 99Pregame prior+6.7Home team on offense+8.9Score differential+1.9Time remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7Garbage-time factor+2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:25: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Chris Warren III for 33 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TEX win probability +11.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:37: Alex Delton run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +20.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 1:37: Joshua Rowland 34 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +17.1 pts (now 59%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Alex Delton run for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +34.7 pts (now 57%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Chris Warren III 2 Yd Run — TEX win probability +19.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 5 of 6KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 14:45KSU 4th & 13 at KSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:46TEX 4th & 9 at TEX 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:19KSU 4th & 9 at TEX 37, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.2%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:15TEX 4th & 3 at KSU 3, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    64.5%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    63.4%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:25KSU 4th & 21 at KSU 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−4.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 34, down 4
    Close callPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:15TEX 4th & 3 at KSU 17, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.0%−0.5
    80% to make
    Punt
    63.9%−6.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:15KSU 4th & 11 at TEX 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:39TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−3.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:57TEX 4th & 11 at TEX 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−3.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:19KSU 4th & 6 at TEX 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−1.5
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    27.8%−17.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:43KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−4.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:37TEX 4th & 4 at KSU 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−13.5
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−29.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 3 of 3KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 14:01KSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:33TEX Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:29KSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:25TEX Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:16TEX Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:37KSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
66.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass intercepted D.J. Reed return for no gain to the KanSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
66.0%
Jesse Ertz run for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 23Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 13
OWN 23
0
66.1%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Dalvin Warmack, broken up by Kris BoydSimilar
Q1 14:45
3RD & 13
OWN 23
0
66.1%
Jesse Ertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:45
4TH & 13
OWN 23
0
66.1%
Nick Walsh punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
66.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 6 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
66.0%
TEXAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 26Similar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
66.0%
Chris Warren III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 25Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd to the Texas 26Similar
Q1 13:46
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
65.9%
Michael Dickson punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 4:2334% → 35%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
65.7%
Alex Barnes run for 2 yds to the KanSt 31Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+6
65.7%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 6 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+11
65.5%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Alex Barnes for 11 yds to the KanSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
65.4%
Jesse Ertz run for 14 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
65.3%
Alex Barnes run for 5 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-2
65.2%
Alex Barnes run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 35Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 7
OPP 35
-2
65.4%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Malik Jefferson and DeShon Elliott for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 37Similar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 9
OPP 37
+54
64.7%
Matthew McCrane 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5DOWNS
15 plays · 77 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
64.7%
Toneil Carter run for 9 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
65.2%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
64.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 16 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
65.4%
Toneil Carter run for 6 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+6
65.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 6 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
65.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 42 Sam Ehlinger fumbled, recovered by Texas Sam EhlingerSimilar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+15
65.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for 15 yds to the KanSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
65.9%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the KanSt 24Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
65.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+21
65.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 21 yds to the KanSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
65.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
65.9%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the KanSt 1Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
65.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 3Similar
Q1 7:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
65.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps TEXAS Penalty, offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 97 yds · 2:1736% → 43%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
63.6%
Justin Silmon run for 2 yds to the KanSt 5Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 8
OWN 5
-3
63.6%
Jesse Ertz run for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 2Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 2
+15
63.3%
Ertz, Jesse deep pass incomplete to Zuber, Isaiah, PENALTY UT defensive pass interference (Hill, Holton) 15 yards to the KS17, 1ST DOWN KS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
62.4%
Justin Silmon run for 1 yd to the KanSt 18Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+82
57.1%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 82 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7TD
13 plays · 71 yds · 4:2156% → 65%
Q2 13:54
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+10
56.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jerrod Heard for 10 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
56.6%
Toneil Carter run for 5 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+6
57.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 6 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
57.3%
Toneil Carter run for 3 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+13
57.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jerrod Heard for 13 yds to the KanSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
58.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jerrod HeardSimilar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+17
58.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 17 yds to the KanSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
58.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 8 yds to the KanSt 5Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 2
OPP 5
0
58.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:54
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+4
57.3%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the KanSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
56.1%
Toneil Carter run for 4 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q2 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.6%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0439% → 52%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.6%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
60.7%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 6 yds to the KanSt 31Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+39
60.6%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 39 yds to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
58.3%
Alex Barnes run for 11 yds to the Texas 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
58.2%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Winston Dimel for 13 yds to the Texas 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 0
OPP 6
-10
55.6%
Barnes, Alex rush over right end for 6 yards to the UT0, clock 07:14, PENALTY KS offensive holding (Frantz, Scott) 10 yards to the UT16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 0
OPP 16
+4
55.7%
Jesse Ertz run for 4 yds to the Texas 12Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
48.1%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 12 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:5849% → 63%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+24
49.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for 24 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
51.0%
Toneil Carter run for 5 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+2
51.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jerrod Heard for 2 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+9
51.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for 9 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
51.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 5 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+33
63.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Chris Warren III for 33 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0042% → 40%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.6%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
57.7%
Alex Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 24Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-10
58.7%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Malcolm Roach for a loss of 10 yards to the KanSt 14Similar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+10
59.6%
Nick Walsh punt for 46 yds , Reggie Hemphill-Mapps returns for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11TD
10 plays · 50 yds · 1:4061% → 71%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
50
+16
60.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 16 yds to the KanSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
62.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 6 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 4
OPP 28
-10
62.7%
Warren III, Chris rush up middle for 7 yards to the KS21 (Reed, D.J.), PENALTY UT offensive holding (Vahe, Patrick) 10 yards to the KS38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+14
59.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 14 yds to the KanSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
62.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 16 yds to the KanSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
62.7%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the KanSt 3Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
62.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the KanSt 1Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.4%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
71.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
66.9%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 5 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
66.1%
Alex Barnes run for 4 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
65.9%
Alex Barnes run for no gain to the KanSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
67.3%
Nick Walsh punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14FG
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:4868% → 75%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
67.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 5 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+5
68.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
68.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
50
+26
70.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 26 yds to the KanSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
70.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey, broken up by Denzel GoolsbySimilar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+7
70.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for 7 yds to the KanSt 17Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 3
OPP 17
0
69.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Chris Warren IIISimilar
Q3 10:15
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+34
75.0%
Joshua Rowland 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
73.5%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 28 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
70.5%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 8 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+1
70.1%
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd to the Texas 38Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-10
70.3%
Barnes, Alex rush over left end for 2 yards to the UT36 (Jones, Brandon), PENALTY KS offensive holding (Dimel, Winston) 10 yards to the UT48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 11
OPP 48
0
72.5%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Dominique Heath, broken up by John BonneySimilar
Q3 10:15
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
74.5%
Nick Walsh punt for 47 yds, downed at the Texas 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0078% → 76%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
77.5%
Kyle Porter run for no gain to the Texas 1Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
77.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
76.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin Johnson, broken up by D.J. ReedSimilar
Q3 7:39
4TH & 10
OWN 1
+15
75.6%
Michael Dickson punt for 48 yds , D.J. Reed returns for 15 yds to the Texas 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 34 yds · 3:0731% → 49%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
69.4%
Jesse Ertz run for 4 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+8
68.9%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 8 yds to the Texas 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
68.9%
Jesse Ertz run for 3 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+16
71.7%
Alex Delton run for 16 yds to the Texas 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
71.8%
Alex Delton run for 1 yd to the Texas 2Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
51.4%
Alex Delton run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:4062% → 57%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
61.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 24Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
61.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin Johnson, broken up by Duke ShelleySimilar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
57.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jerrod HeardSimilar
Q3 2:57
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+1
56.8%
Michael Dickson punt for 67 yds , D.J. Reed returns for 1 yd to the KanSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19FG
10 plays · 74 yds · 5:1644% → 58%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
56.3%
Alex Delton run for 13 yds to the KanSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
56.0%
Alex Delton run for 11 yds to the KanSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
54.8%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+23
55.5%
Alex Delton pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 23 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
51.3%
Justin Silmon run for 1 yd to the Texas 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+22
50.5%
Alex Delton run for 22 yds to the Texas 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
48.0%
Alex Delton run for 2 yds to the Texas 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+4
48.0%
Alex Delton run for 4 yds to the Texas 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 14
-2
50.1%
Alex Delton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 16Similar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
41.6%
Matthew McCrane 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20MISSED FG
15 plays · 73 yds · 6:2944% → 40%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
44.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+9
43.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 9 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+4
43.6%
Chris Warren III run for 4 yds to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
45.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 19 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
49.6%
Chris Warren III run for 4 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+15
50.5%
Ehlinger, Sam pass incomplete, PENALTY KS roughing passer (Walker, Reggie) 15 yards to the KS32, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
53.4%
Chris Warren III run for 3 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+7
53.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for 7 yds to the KanSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
53.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the KanSt 17Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+8
53.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 8 yds to the KanSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
53.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd to the KanSt 8Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
53.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 10Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
50.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jerrod HeardSimilar
Q4 5:43
4TH & 0
OPP 10
+27
40.4%
Joshua Rowland 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0070% → 67%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
29.8%
Alex Barnes run for 5 yds to the KanSt 15Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 5
OWN 15
0
30.1%
Alex Delton run for no gain to the KanSt 15Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
31.7%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Dalton SchoenSimilar
Q4 5:43
4TH & 5
OWN 15
0
33.5%
Nick Walsh punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Reggie Hemphill-Mapps at the Texas 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 2:2436% → 59%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
35.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 7 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+7
39.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 7 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
39.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Reggie Hemphill-MappsSimilar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
37.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+15
35.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 15 yds Lil'Jordan Humphrey fumbled, forced by Duke Shelley, recovered by Texas Chris Warren III for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
42.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 6 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
44.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Reggie Hemphill-MappsSimilar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+11
41.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 11 yds to the KanSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
44.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Reggie Hemphill-MappsSimilar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
44.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 6 yds to the KanSt 17Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
41.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jerrod HeardSimilar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+34
59.0%
Joshua Rowland 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23INT
9 plays · 13 yds · 0:5151% → 47%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
49.2%
Alex Barnes run for 6 yds to the KanSt 23Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+6
47.4%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 6 yds to the KanSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
47.5%
Alex Barnes run for 4 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 6
OWN 33
-3
48.6%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Naashon Hughes for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 30Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
52.8%
Jesse Ertz pass intercepted DeShon Elliott return for no gain to the Texas 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24MISSED FG
7 plays · 39 yds · 0:3059% → 66%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
59.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 20 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
64.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+11
64.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for 11 yds to the KanSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
65.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 8 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 2
OPP 28
0
68.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan HumphreySimilar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-2
50.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 26Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+45
65.6%
Joshua Rowland 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 25END OF HALF
9 plays · 0 yds · 15:0250% → 47%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
49.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 26Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 0
OPP 25
-5
40.4%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Tyler Mitchell) to the Texas 30Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 0
OPP 30
+2
77.7%
Alex Delton run for 2 yds to the Texas 28Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 0
OPP 28
+20
77.7%
Alex Barnes run for 20 yds to the Texas 8Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
43.0%
Alex Delton run for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 18
-10
40.5%
Delton, Alex rush over left tackle for 13 yards to the UT5 (Jones, Brandon), PENALTY KS offensive holding (Beecham, Abdul) 10 yards to the UT28, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 17
OPP 28
-10
43.4%
Delton, Alex rush for loss of 2 yards to the UT30, fumble forced by Jefferson, Malik, fumble by Delton, Alex recovered by KS Schoen, Dalton at UT30, PENALTY KS offensive holding (Dimel, Winston) 10 yards to the UT38, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 27
OPP 38
+2
46.6%
Alex Barnes run for 2 yds to the Texas 36Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 25
OPP 36
+53
53.5%
Matthew McCrane 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 26TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0043% → 84%
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 28
+20
43.4%
Alex Barnes run for 20 yds to the Texas 8Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
64.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 12 yds to the KanSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
64.7%
Sam Ehlinger run for 9 yds to the KanSt 4Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+2
64.7%
Chris Warren III run for 2 yds to the KanSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
83.8%
Chris Warren III 2 Yd RunSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 28MISSED FG
3 plays · -11 yds · 0:0024% → 10%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
75.8%
Alex Delton pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 7 yds to the Texas 18Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
-10
74.5%
KANSAS ST Penalty, offensive holding (Abdul Beecham) to the Texas 28Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 21
OPP 36
+53
90.1%
Matthew McCrane 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 29TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0086% → 87%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
85.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 12 yds to the KanSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
86.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for no gain to the KanSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Alex Delton run for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
-34.7
TD · Q3 3:37
Alex Delton run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
-20.4
TD · OT 0:00
Chris Warren III 2 Yd Run
+19.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com