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TEX

Texas 17 at Iowa State 7

ISU
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2017 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:19 · Michael Dickson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Trever Ryen at the IowSt 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Home team on offense−19.0Pregame prior−5.1Score differential−9.8Garbage-time factor−4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:29: Shane Buechele pass complete to Toneil Carter for 22 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TEX win probability +7.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:06: Shane Buechele pass incomplete — TEX win probability +5.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:40: Jacob Park pass complete to Allen Lazard for 17 yds to the Texas 11 for a 1ST down — ISU win probability +5.9 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:05: Jacob Park pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 11 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ISU win probability +18.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:05: Chris Francis kickoff for 65 yds , Armanti Foreman return for 14 yds to the Texas 14 — TEX win probability +5.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:34ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:32ISU 4th & 15 at ISU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:31ISU 4th & 7 at TEX 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    37.7%−0.1
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:42TEX 4th & 1 at TEX 21, up 7
    Close callPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:01ISU 4th & 7 at ISU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:02TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 29, up 7
    Close callPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:42ISU 4th & 10 at TEX 36, down 14
    Close callPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    25.3%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:33TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−3.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:19TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:57ISU 4th & 9 at TEX 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:50ISU 4th & 15 at TEX 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    17.0%−0.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:48TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 11, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−0.7
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:41TEX 4th & 15 at TEX 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−3.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:25TEX 4th & 4 at ISU 32, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.2%−1.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−2.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:07ISU 4th & 4 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.3%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:46TEX 4th & 16 at ISU 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−2.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    82.9%−2.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:35ISU 4th & 4 at TEX 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    14.7%−1.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−2.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:50TEX 4th & 1 at ISU 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%−1.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−2.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TEX made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:07TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:29TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:05ISU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2139% → 39%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.5%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Trever RyenSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
38.6%
David Montgomery run for 9 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
38.8%
Jacob Park sacked by DeShon Elliott for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 29Similar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+52
38.9%
Colin Downing punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Armanti Foreman at the IOWAST 29 TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Texas 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 6:1861% → 63%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
39.1%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the Texas 20Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
39.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lorenzo Joe for no gain to the Texas 20Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+12
39.7%
Shane Buechele sacked by Joshua Bailey for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 17 Shane Buechele fumbled, recovered by Texas Zach Shackelford , return for 0 yards for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Texas 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
39.6%
Chris Warren III run for 5 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
39.6%
Chris Warren III run for no gain to the Texas 37Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+11
39.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 11 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
39.8%
Chris Warren III run for 3 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+2
39.9%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+28
40.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 28 yds to the IowSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
39.8%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the IowSt 16Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+5
39.8%
Chris Warren III run for 5 yds to the IowSt 11Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+11
37.3%
Chris Warren III run for 11 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:2838% → 38%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
38.2%
Jacob Park pass complete to David Montgomery for 4 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
38.3%
David Montgomery run for 7 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
38.4%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Matthew EatonSimilar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+10
38.3%
Jacob Park pass complete to Allen Lazard for 10 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
38.9%
Jacob Park sacked by Naashon Hughes for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 41Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 15
OWN 41
0
38.3%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Chase AllenSimilar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 15
OWN 41
0
37.9%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 15
OWN 41
0
37.6%
Colin Downing punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Armanti Foreman at the Texas 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4FUMBLE
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:4862% → 64%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
37.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 6 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
37.5%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
37.5%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
37.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 10 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
36.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Cade BrewerSimilar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
36.9%
Chris Warren III run for 8 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+5
36.7%
Chris Warren III run for 5 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-8
36.1%
Chris Warren III run for a loss of 8 yards to the Texas 46 Chris Warren III fumbled, recovered by IowSt De'Monte RuthSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:5439% → 38%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
39.1%
Jacob Park pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 10 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
39.1%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Marchie MurdockSimilar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
39.1%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q1 0:38
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
39.0%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q1 0:31
4TH & 7
OPP 33
0
37.9%
Colin Downing punt for 21 yds, fair catch by Armanti Foreman at the Texas 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4363% → 62%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
37.4%
Chris Warren III run for 2 yds to the Texas 14Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+1
37.4%
Shane Buechele run for 1 yd to the Texas 15Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+6
37.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Cade Brewer for 6 yds to the Texas 21Similar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
37.9%
Michael Dickson punt for 61 yds, fair catch by Allen Lazard at the IowSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:3237% → 37%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
37.4%
Jacob Park pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 5 yds to the IowSt 23Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+7
37.6%
Jacob Park pass complete to Allen Lazard for 7 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
37.5%
Jacob Park pass complete to Trever Ryen for 4 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+10
38.1%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
38.6%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the IowSt 45Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
38.5%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+2
37.4%
Jacob Park run for 2 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q2 11:01
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
37.1%
Colin Downing punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:5363% → 64%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
37.0%
Toneil Carter run for 2 yds to the Texas 13Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+7
37.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jerrod Heard for 7 yds to the Texas 20Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+3
36.7%
Shane Buechele run for 3 yds to the Texas 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
36.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Toneil Carter for 1 yd to the Texas 24Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+5
36.6%
Toneil Carter run for 5 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
35.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:02
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
36.1%
Michael Dickson punt for 60 yds, fair catch by Trever Ryen at the IowSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9INT
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:1535% → 36%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+25
35.4%
Jacob Park pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 25 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
36.2%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
35.9%
Jacob Park pass intercepted DeShon Elliott return for no gain to the Texas 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 1:5867% → 75%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+27
33.1%
Shane Buechele run for 12 yds to the IOWAST 48 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Brian Peavy) to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
32.8%
Armanti Foreman run for 2 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+5
32.6%
Shane Buechele run for 5 yds to the IowSt 26Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+4
32.9%
Shane Buechele run for 4 yds to the IowSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
25.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Toneil Carter for 22 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11PUNT
14 plays · 39 yds · 3:3827% → 26%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.5%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
26.5%
Jacob Park pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 6 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
26.8%
Jacob Park pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 3 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
26.7%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
26.9%
Jacob Park pass complete to David Montgomery for 5 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+9
27.1%
Jacob Park pass complete to Trever Ryen for 9 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
27.2%
Jacob Park pass complete to Trever Ryen for 4 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+7
27.1%
David Montgomery run for 7 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
26.7%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
26.3%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
26.7%
Jacob Park pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
26.1%
Colin Downing punt for 34 yds, downed at the Texas 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:0476% → 77%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
24.2%
Kyle Porter run for no gain to the Texas 2Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+2
23.8%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the Texas 4Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 8
OWN 4
+3
23.4%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the Texas 7Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 5
OWN 7
+2
23.3%
Michael Dickson punt for 56 yds , Trever Ryen returns for 2 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13INT
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:1525% → 25%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
24.5%
Jacob Park pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
50
+26
24.8%
Jacob Park pass intercepted Kris Boyd return for 26 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:0681% → 81%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
18.8%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+17
18.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Chris Warren III for 17 yds to the IowSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 3:4177% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
22.6%
IOWA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Willie Harvey) to the Texas 30Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+2
22.3%
Chris Warren III run for 2 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
21.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 2 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
22.2%
Shane Buechele run for 3 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
21.2%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Derek Kerstetter) to the Texas 32Similar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 15
OWN 32
-2
21.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 30Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+2
21.1%
Shane Buechele run for 2 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+8
21.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 8 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
20.2%
Michael Dickson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Trever Ryen at the IowSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:1321% → 21%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
20.9%
Jacob Park pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 11 yds to the IowSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+24
21.2%
Jacob Park pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
50
+1
22.9%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Texas 49Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
22.4%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
21.9%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
20.9%
Colin Downing punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Armanti Foreman at the Texas 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17INT
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:4282% → 85%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+11
18.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 11 yds to the Texas 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
17.7%
Chris Warren III run for no gain to the Texas 18Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-7
17.6%
Toneil Carter run for 3 yds to the Texas 21 TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Texas 11Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 17
OWN 11
0
17.3%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 17
OWN 11
+25
17.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 25 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
16.1%
TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Derek Kerstetter) to the Texas 26Similar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 20
OWN 26
-1
16.7%
Kyle Porter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 25Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 21
OWN 25
+10
15.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jerrod Heard for 10 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+9
14.9%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted Kamari Cotton-Moya return for 9 yds to the Texas 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1220% → 17%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
20.4%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Matthew EatonSimilar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
20.0%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the Texas 38Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 10
OPP 38
-5
19.4%
Jacob Park sacked by Breckyn Hager for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 43Similar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 15
OPP 43
+38
17.3%
Colin Downing punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Armanti Foreman at the Texas 9 TEXAS Penalty, Face Mask (4 yards) (4 Yards) to the Texas 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5786% → 87%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
14.3%
Chris Warren III run for 2 yds to the Texas 7Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+3
14.2%
Chris Warren III run for 3 yds to the Texas 10Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+1
13.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 1 yd to the Texas 11Similar
Q3 2:48
4TH & 4
OWN 11
0
13.0%
Michael Dickson punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:3519% → 34%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+17
18.9%
Jacob Park pass complete to Allen Lazard for 17 yds to the Texas 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
18.7%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
18.2%
David Montgomery pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+11
34.3%
Jacob Park pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 11 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:1572% → 70%
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-7
28.0%
TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tristan Nickelson) to the Texas 7Similar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 17
OWN 7
0
28.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Toneil CarterSimilar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 17
OWN 7
0
28.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 17
OWN 7
+2
29.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 2 yds to the Texas 9Similar
Q3 0:41
4TH & 15
OWN 9
0
30.5%
Michael Dickson punt for 54 yds, downed at the IowSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0931% → 28%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
30.7%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Marchie MurdockSimilar
Q3 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+22
28.3%
Jacob Park pass intercepted DeShon Elliott return for 22 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:0176% → 78%
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
24.0%
TEXAS Penalty, Delay of Game (Shane Buechele) to the IowSt 43Similar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 15
OPP 43
0
24.3%
Armanti Foreman run for no gain to the IowSt 43Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+6
23.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Chris Warren III for 6 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+5
21.5%
Shane Buechele run for 5 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+49
21.9%
Joshua Rowland 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:0820% → 19%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
19.6%
Jacob Park pass complete to Allen Lazard for 14 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
20.9%
Jacob Park pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
20.4%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+6
19.1%
Jacob Park pass complete to David Montgomery for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:07
4TH & 4
50
-12
19.2%
Jacob Park sacked by Malik Jefferson for a loss of 12 yards to the IowSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 2:1483% → 86%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
16.6%
Chris Warren III run for 2 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 8
OPP 36
-1
16.4%
Shane Buechele run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 37Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 9
OPP 37
-7
15.1%
Shane Buechele sacked by JaQuan Bailey for a loss of 7 yards to the IowSt 44Similar
Q4 9:46
4TH & 16
OPP 44
0
14.5%
Michael Dickson punt for 35 yds, downed at the IowSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 57 yds · 2:0514% → 15%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
14.2%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 11Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+8
13.6%
Jacob Park pass complete to Chase Allen for 8 yds to the IowSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
14.0%
Jacob Park pass complete to Allen Lazard for 15 yds to the IowSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
14.5%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to David MontgomerySimilar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-5
14.3%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Jake Campos) to the IowSt 29Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+29
12.9%
Jacob Park pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 29 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
16.3%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
15.8%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+6
15.1%
Jacob Park pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 6 yds to the Texas 36Similar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+2
14.6%
Jacob Park pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 2 yds to the Texas 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 27END OF GAME
14 plays · 40 yds · 7:1588% → 96%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
12.3%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+6
10.9%
Kyle Porter run for 6 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 1
OWN 43
-10
10.1%
TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Texas 33Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+13
11.3%
Shane Buechele run for 13 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
9.0%
Kyle Porter run for 5 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+1
8.2%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the IowSt 48Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+4
8.4%
Toneil Carter run for 4 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
7.8%
Chris Warren III run for 4 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
6.2%
Chris Warren III run for no gain to the IowSt 40Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+5
5.6%
Shane Buechele run for 5 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+4
4.4%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the IowSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
3.9%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the IowSt 30Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+2
4.0%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+2
4.0%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the IowSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:05
Jacob Park pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 11 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
+18.3
TD · Q2 5:29
Shane Buechele pass complete to Toneil Carter for 22 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)
-7.9
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:06
Shane Buechele pass incomplete
-5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com