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BAY

Baylor 20 at Kansas State 33

KSU
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGFGTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:01 · Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:35: Winston Dimel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:31: John Lovett run for 74 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +9.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:52: Jesse Ertz run for 15 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +6.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:07: Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 70 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +8.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 4:57: Matthew McCrane 23 yd FG GOOD — KSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 6:01BAY 4th & 3 at KSU 21, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.8%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    16.1%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:01KSU 4th & 8 at KSU 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:06BAY 4th & 6 at BAY 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:13KSU 4th & 5 at BAY 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    78.7%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:13BAY 4th & 9 at KSU 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    17.3%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:55BAY 4th & 23 at KSU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−1.3
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−2.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:35BAY 4th & 19 at BAY 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−1.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:04KSU 4th & 3 at BAY 4, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.7%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    85.6%−3.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00BAY 4th & 4 at KSU 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%−1.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:45BAY 4th & 4 at KSU 10, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.9%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−6.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:35KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 46, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:25KSU 4th & 16 at KSU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−3.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:06KSU 4th & 10 at BAY 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    86.0%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:59BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 28, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:57KSU 4th & 6 at BAY 6, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    88.5%−3.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:14BAY 4th & 10 at KSU 41, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%
    32% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BAY made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 13:17KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:35KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:31BAY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:52KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:07BAY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4385% → 85%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.4%
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd to the KanSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
85.4%
Ertz, Jesse pass incomplete to Pringle, Byron, PENALTY BU offside (Pitre,Jalen) 5 yards to the KS31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
85.4%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 15 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+38
85.4%
Alex Barnes run for 38 yds to the Bayl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
85.4%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 16 yds for a TD BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2FG
16 plays · 53 yds · 7:1115% → 16%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
85.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 8 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+1
85.2%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 35Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
85.2%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
85.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 32Similar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+7
85.3%
Tony Nicholson run for 7 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-1
85.2%
Tony Nicholson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 38Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+23
85.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 8 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (Cre Moore) to the KanSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
84.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 4 yds to the KanSt 35Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+3
84.5%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+4
84.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 4 yds to the KanSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
84.5%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the KanSt 24Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+5
84.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 5 yds to the KanSt 19Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 1
OPP 19
-2
84.7%
Terence Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 21Similar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+38
83.7%
Connor Martin 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.6%
Alex Barnes run for 2 yds to the KanSt 27Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
83.7%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
83.4%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+3
83.3%
Nick Walsh punt for 48 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 3 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
83.7%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-5
83.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 24Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 14
OWN 24
0
83.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Tony Nicholson for no gain to the Bayl 24Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 14
OWN 24
+13
84.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 13 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q1 5:06
4TH & 1
OWN 37
-5
83.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, delay of game (Connor Martin) to the Bayl 32Similar
Q1 5:06
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+34
84.0%
Connor Martin punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 38 , Byron Pringle returns for 34 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5FG
9 plays · 18 yds · 3:2484% → 84%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
83.5%
Dalvin Warmack run for 3 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 7
OPP 35
-5
83.7%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+9
83.3%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dalvin Warmack for 9 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+6
83.4%
Jesse Ertz run for 6 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
83.0%
Dalvin Warmack run for 1 yd to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+4
82.9%
Dalvin Warmack run for 4 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
82.6%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Isaiah HarrisSimilar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
83.8%
Matthew McCrane 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 2 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+20
83.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 20 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
82.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 12 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
82.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 43Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+3
83.1%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the KanSt 40Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
83.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Pooh Stricklin, broken up by Tanner WoodSimilar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 9
OPP 40
+11
83.8%
Connor Martin punt for 37 yds , D.J. Reed returns for 11 yds to the KanSt 14 D.J. Reed fumbled, forced by Ross Matiscik, recovered by Bayl Marques JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7MISSED FG
4 plays · -13 yds · 1:3318% → 16%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-6
81.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Tony Nicholson for a loss of 6 yards to the KanSt 20Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 16
OPP 20
0
82.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 16
OPP 20
-7
83.0%
Zach Smith sacked by Davis Clark for a loss of 7 yards to the KanSt 27Similar
Q2 9:55
4TH & 23
OPP 27
+44
84.0%
Connor Martin 44 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Reggie Walker N/A return for no gain to the KanSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 3:2083% → 89%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
83.4%
Ertz, Jesse pass incomplete to Pringle, Byron, PENALTY BU offside (Johnson,Micheal) 5 yards to the KS32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 5
OWN 32
+6
83.9%
Alex Barnes run for 6 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+29
84.0%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 29 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
84.5%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Winston Dimel for 21 yds to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
84.5%
Alex Barnes run for 5 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+6
84.5%
Jesse Ertz run for 6 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.5%
Winston Dimel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
87.9%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-10
88.0%
Ebner,Trestan rush for no gain to the BU24 (Shelley, Duke), PENALTY BU holding (Lawrence,P.) 10 yards to the BU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 21
OWN 14
0
88.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Pooh Stricklin, broken up by Kendall AdamsSimilar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+2
88.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 2 yds to the Bayl 16Similar
Q2 6:35
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
88.3%
Connor Martin punt for 49 yds, downed at the KanSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10FG
18 plays · 61 yds · 4:4188% → 90%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
88.0%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
88.0%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 10 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
88.6%
Alex Barnes run for 6 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+11
88.6%
Jesse Ertz run for 11 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
88.7%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 43Similar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 15
OPP 43
0
88.5%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Alex BarnesSimilar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+5
88.4%
Alex Barnes run for 5 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+11
88.2%
Jesse Ertz run for 11 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
88.7%
Winston Dimel run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 28Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+8
88.7%
Alex Barnes run for 8 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+9
89.9%
Jesse Ertz run for 9 yds to the Bayl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
91.5%
Jesse Ertz run for no gain to the Bayl 11Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
91.5%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron Pringle KANSAS ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+7
90.9%
Jesse Ertz run for 7 yds to the Bayl 4Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
89.8%
Matthew McCrane 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12FG
19 plays · 65 yds · 7:159% → 11%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.9%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
90.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 9 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
90.5%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-6
90.7%
Zach Smith sacked by Will Geary for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 32
+19
91.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 19 yds to the KanSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
89.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
90.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 6 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
90.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Trestan EbnerSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+16
90.3%
Connor Martin run for 16 yds to the KanSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
89.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, delay of game (Zach Smith) to the KanSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 32
-5
89.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Jordan Feuerbacher) to the KanSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+4
90.4%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 33
+8
90.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Terence Williams for 8 yds to the KanSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+9
90.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 9 yds to the KanSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
89.2%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the KanSt 12Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+2
89.2%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the KanSt 10Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
89.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Tanner WoodSimilar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+27
88.9%
Connor Martin 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
91.8%
Justin Silmon run for 4 yds to the KanSt 41 KANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Adam Holtorf) to the KanSt 31Similar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 16
OWN 31
+7
91.6%
Jesse Ertz run for 7 yds to the KanSt 38Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-5
92.0%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Tyler Mitchell) to the KanSt 33Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+3
91.6%
Justin Silmon run for 3 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+10
91.4%
Jesse Ertz run for 10 yds to the KanSt 46Similar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
91.4%
Nick Walsh punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14TD
4 plays · 85 yds · 1:049% → 19%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
90.8%
John Lovett run for 9 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+2
90.0%
John Lovett run for 2 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
90.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+74
81.2%
John Lovett run for 74 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0084% → 82%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-6
84.0%
Alex Barnes run for a loss of 6 yards to the KanSt 23Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 16
OWN 23
0
83.5%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 16
OWN 23
0
82.7%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q3 3:25
4TH & 16
OWN 23
0
81.9%
Nick Walsh punt for 58 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0019% → 21%
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
80.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+15
81.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 15 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
80.2%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
79.2%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
78.9%
TEAM run for no gain to the Bayl 14 TEAM fumbled, recovered by KanSt Kyle BallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17TD
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:4189% → 95%
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
88.5%
Alex Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 15Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+15
95.0%
Jesse Ertz run for 15 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:387% → 16%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
92.7%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+7
92.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Terence Williams for 7 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
92.2%
John Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 30Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+70
84.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 70 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 4:4888% → 90%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
87.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the KanSt 32Similar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 5
OWN 32
+7
88.4%
Justin Silmon run for 7 yds to the KanSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
88.7%
Jesse Ertz run for 9 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+3
89.2%
Justin Silmon run for 3 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
89.2%
Justin Silmon run for 3 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-5
89.3%
Ertz, Jesse rush for 1 yard to the BU45 (Young,Taylor), PENALTY KS illegal formation 5 yards to the KS49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+19
88.6%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 19 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
89.6%
Jesse Ertz run for 4 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-4
89.6%
Justin Silmon run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 32Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
88.6%
Jesse Ertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+49
90.4%
Matthew McCrane 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
90.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Trestan EbnerSimilar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+14
91.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 14 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
90.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Pooh StricklinSimilar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
90.9%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
91.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Pooh Stricklin, broken up by Duke ShelleySimilar
Q4 7:59
4TH & 10
OWN 28
-14
91.7%
Connor Martin run for a loss of 14 yards to the Bayl 17 Connor Martin fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21FG
5 plays · 11 yds · 2:1393% → 96%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
92.6%
Alex Barnes run for 10 yds to the Bayl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
92.6%
Alex Barnes run for 2 yds to the Bayl 5Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
92.6%
Winston Dimel run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 6Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
92.3%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q4 4:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
96.2%
Matthew McCrane 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22INT
12 plays · 58 yds · 1:355% → 3%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+31
94.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 31 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
93.9%
Zach Smith sacked by Will Geary for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 39Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 16
OWN 39
+14
94.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 14 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+6
93.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 6 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
93.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Trent TankingSimilar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
93.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
93.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 10
OPP 41
+13
97.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 13 yds to the KanSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
96.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+2
96.8%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Kendall Adams return for 2 yds to the KanSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23END OF GAME
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:4398% → 98%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
97.7%
Winston Dimel run for 9 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+13
97.8%
Alex Delton run for 13 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
98.1%
Alex Delton run for 2 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+4
98.1%
Alex Barnes run for 4 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+8
98.1%
Alex Delton run for 8 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
98.2%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 47Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 13
OPP 47
-2
98.1%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:31
John Lovett run for 74 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)
-9.4
TD · Q4 13:07
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 70 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)
-8.1
TD · Q4 14:52
Jesse Ertz run for 15 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
+6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com