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TTU

Texas Tech 27 at Houston 24

HOU
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreTTU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:12 · Dane Roy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 53Home team on offense−1.4Pregame prior+12.8Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:41: Kyle Allen pass complete to D'Eriq King for 18 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK) — HOU win probability +10.3 pts (now 64%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:48: Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 77 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK) — TTU win probability +17.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:28: Nic Shimonek pass complete to Justin Stockton for 20 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK) — TTU win probability +8.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:29: Kyle Postma run for 9 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK) — HOU win probability +9.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:15: Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 4 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK) — HOU win probability +24.5 pts (now 31%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9TTU made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 12:23TTU 4th & 1 at HOU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    31.1%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:57TTU 4th & 5 at HOU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:56HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:46TTU 4th & 15 at TTU 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:45TTU 4th & 13 at HOU 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.5
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:12HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 46, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:26HOU 4th & 7 at TTU 27, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−2.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:02TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:32TTU 4th & 13 at TTU 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−2.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:56TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:37TTU 4th & 8 at HOU 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−1.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−11.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:13HOU 4th & 6 at TTU 38, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    54.8%−1.6
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:35HOU 4th & 4 at TTU 47, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:24TTU 4th & 12 at TTU 1, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−7.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:44HOU 4th & 7 at TTU 44, down 10
    Close callPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    26.4%−1.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:07TTU 4th & 4 at midfield, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%−1.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:43HOU 4th & 14 at HOU 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−2.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:30HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 31, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:29HOU 4th & 1 at TTU 9, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%−0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−1.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:22TTU 4th & 4 at TTU 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:42TTU 4th & 4 at HOU 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    93.2%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    89.4%−3.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TTU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 11:08TTU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:41HOU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:48TTU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:28TTU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:29HOU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:15HOU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:4367% → 67%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
67.0%
Kyle Allen pass complete to John Leday for 7 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
66.9%
Dillon Birden run for 5 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
66.9%
Kyle Allen pass intercepted Dakota Allen return for 10 yds to the Houst 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2FG
9 plays · 17 yds · 3:4333% → 34%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
66.7%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 2 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+7
66.6%
Cameron Batson run for 7 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 1
OPP 23
0
66.5%
Desmond Nisby run for no gain to the Houst 23Similar
Q1 12:23
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+3
66.5%
Nic Shimonek run for 3 yds to the Houst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
66.2%
Keke Coutee run for 3 yds to the Houst 17Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+5
66.0%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Derrick Willies for 5 yds to the Houst 12Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 2
OPP 12
-5
66.1%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 17Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+2
66.0%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 2 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
65.9%
Michael Ewton 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:5366% → 66%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
66.0%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 17 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
66.3%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Duke Catalon for 2 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
66.3%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
65.9%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to John LedaySimilar
Q1 8:56
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
65.5%
Dane Roy punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:5534% → 34%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
65.6%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Justin Stockton for 2 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+5
65.6%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 5 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+10
65.5%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 10 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
64.8%
Desmond Nisby run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexTc 38Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 15
OWN 38
0
65.1%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 15
OWN 38
0
65.3%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q1 6:46
4TH & 15
OWN 38
0
65.7%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:1265% → 64%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
65.0%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-4
64.7%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 21Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 12
OWN 21
-5
64.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 16Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 17
OWN 16
0
64.0%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6FG
16 plays · 39 yds · 3:1335% → 38%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
64.6%
Justin Stockton run for no gain to the TexTc 32Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
64.7%
Nic Shimonek pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-5
65.1%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 27Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+21
65.2%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 6 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Roughing Passer (Leroy Godfrey) to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
64.0%
Nic Shimonek run for no gain to the TexTc 48 Nic Shimonek fumbled, recovered by TexTc Nic ShimonekSimilar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
64.0%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 9 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+5
63.7%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 5 yds Cameron Batson fumbled, recovered by TexTc for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
63.6%
Tre King run for 12 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-4
63.2%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 6 yds to the Houst 20 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 14
OPP 30
0
63.2%
Nic Shimonek pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 14
OPP 30
0
63.1%
Nic Shimonek pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 14
OPP 30
-5
63.6%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 19
OPP 35
+11
63.6%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Derrick Willies for 11 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q1 1:56
4TH & 8
OPP 24
-5
63.8%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 13
OPP 29
+47
61.9%
Michael Barden 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:2362% → 62%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
62.4%
Dillon Birden run for 6 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
63.0%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Linell Bonner for 11 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
63.2%
Kyle Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
62.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to John Leday for 4 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q1 0:19
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
62.7%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Dillon BirdenSimilar
Q1 0:12
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
61.8%
Dane Roy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 86 yds · 3:5239% → 50%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
61.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Tre King for no gain to the TexTc 14Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+6
61.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 6 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
Q2 14:27
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+13
61.3%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Derrick Willies for 13 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
60.3%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Derrick WilliesSimilar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+10
59.6%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 10 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
58.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 8 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+4
57.8%
Desmond Nisby run for 4 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+28
57.5%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 28 yds to the Houst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
57.0%
Tre King run for 5 yds to the Houst 12Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+9
56.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 9 yds to the Houst 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
50.0%
Desmond Nisby run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Ewton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9FG
10 plays · 26 yds · 2:1353% → 52%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
53.3%
Mulbah Car run for 1 yd to the Houst 48Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+8
52.9%
Kyle Allen pass complete to D'Eriq King for 8 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+14
52.6%
Duke Catalon run for 14 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
53.9%
Kyle Allen pass complete to D'Eriq King for 3 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+5
53.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to John Leday for 5 yds to the TexTc 22Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 2
OPP 22
-5
52.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 27Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
51.8%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+45
51.9%
Caden Novikoff 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2048% → 48%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
52.1%
Nic Shimonek pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
52.4%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Derrick WilliesSimilar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
52.1%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Derrick WilliesSimilar
Q2 8:02
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
52.5%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 33 yds, downed at the Houst 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11FUMBLE
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:2250% → 52%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
50.2%
Duke Catalon run for 7 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+2
51.0%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
50.6%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
50.5%
Allen, Kyle pass incomplete to Dunbar, Steven, PENALTY TEXASTECH holding (Morgan, Octavious) 10 yards to the TEXASTECH46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
51.2%
D'Eriq King run for 2 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
50.7%
Kyle Allen pass complete to D'Eriq King for no gain to the TexTc 44Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+12
51.5%
Kyle Allen run for 2 yds to the TexTc 32 Kyle Allen fumbled, forced by Eli Howard, recovered by TexTc T.J. Vasher TEXAS TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the TexTc 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
48.6%
Nic Shimonek pass intercepted for a 1ST down Terrell Williams return for 20 yds to the HOUSTON 48 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the TexTc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13TD
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:1853% → 64%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
53.3%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the TexTc 18Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+18
63.6%
Kyle Allen pass complete to D'Eriq King for 18 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:0441% → 40%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
58.9%
Justin Stockton run for no gain to the TexTc 26Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
59.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 6 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 4
OWN 32
-9
58.2%
Nic Shimonek sacked by Khalil Williams for a loss of 9 yards to the TexTc 23Similar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 13
OWN 23
0
60.3%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the Houst 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15FUMBLE
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:0959% → 61%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
59.3%
Kyle Allen pass complete to John Leday for 3 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-3
59.9%
Duke Catalon run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 37Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+15
56.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 15 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
60.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Linell Bonner for 7 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 3
OPP 41
-5
60.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexTc 46 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TexTc Tony JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16END OF HALF
10 plays · 39 yds · 1:0246% → 49%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
53.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 5 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
52.9%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+24
53.2%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 24 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
50.9%
Keke Coutee run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 27Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+12
51.3%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Derrick Willies for 12 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
50.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 5 yds to the Houst 10Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
50.3%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 5
OPP 10
-5
50.8%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Houst 15Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+33
50.7%
Michael Ewton 33 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:4945% → 43%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
54.8%
Justin Stockton run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 21Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 11
OWN 21
0
54.9%
Nic Shimonek pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 11
OWN 21
0
56.2%
Nic Shimonek pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:06
4TH & 11
OWN 21
+5
57.2%
HOUSTON Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the TexTc 26Similar
Q3 13:56
4TH & 6
OWN 26
+1
56.6%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 53 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 1 yd to the Houst 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18INT
11 plays · 59 yds · 4:3156% → 58%
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
55.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Duke Catalon for 13 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
55.6%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 36Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
55.7%
Dillon Birden run for 2 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+10
54.9%
Allen, Kyle pass incomplete to Dunbar, Steven, PENALTY TEXASTECH holding 10 yards to the HOUSTON48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
58.0%
Duke Catalon run for 9 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 1
OPP 43
0
58.7%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the TexTc 43Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+2
58.0%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+21
58.4%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Linell Bonner for 21 yds to the TexTc 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
59.6%
Kyle Allen pass complete to John Leday for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 21Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+2
59.5%
D'Eriq King run for 2 yds to the TexTc 19Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+2
57.6%
Kyle Allen pass intercepted Jordyn Brooks return for 2 yds to the TexTc 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19MISSED FG
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2048% → 49%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+73
51.8%
Tre King run for 73 yds to the Houst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
46.6%
Tre King run for 1 yd to the Houst 15Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+1
46.2%
Keke Coutee run for 1 yd to the Houst 14Similar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
47.6%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+31
50.6%
Michael Ewton 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:0953% → 54%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
52.9%
Dillon Birden run for 3 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
52.6%
Kyle Allen run for 1 yd to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+21
51.0%
Kyle Allen pass complete to D'Eriq King for 21 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
56.2%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Dillon Birden for 13 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
57.3%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
57.0%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Romello Brooker for 4 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
56.4%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q3 5:13
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
53.9%
Dane Roy punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:1051% → 69%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
48.8%
Justin Stockton run for 3 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+77
31.5%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 77 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 1:5531% → 30%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
31.1%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 26Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
30.7%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Linell Bonner for 1 yd to the Houst 27Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+20
28.7%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 20 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
32.8%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
31.5%
D'Eriq King run for 6 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
32.1%
Kyle Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:35
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
29.7%
Dane Roy punt for 44 yds, downed at the TexTc 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:5770% → 69%
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
30.2%
Nic Shimonek run for 3 yds to the TexTc 6Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+2
30.1%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 2 yds to the TexTc 8Similar
Q3 0:59
3RD & 5
OWN 8
-6
30.5%
Nic Shimonek sacked by Nick Thurman for a loss of 6 yards to the TexTc 2Similar
Q3 0:31
4TH & 11
OWN 2
-1
30.9%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Delay of Game (-1 Yards) to the TexTc 1Similar
Q3 0:24
4TH & 12
OWN 1
0
30.8%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexTc 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3131% → 27%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
30.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Linell Bonner for 3 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
30.4%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Duke CatalonSimilar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
29.6%
Kyle Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
26.9%
Dane Roy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:1671% → 79%
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
28.9%
Justin Stockton run for 4 yds to the TexTc 12Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+10
28.6%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 10 yds to the TexTc 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
27.0%
Tre King run for 4 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+18
26.1%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 18 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
21.2%
Tre King run for 1 yd to the TexTc 45Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
21.0%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Donta ThompsonSimilar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+5
21.1%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 4
50
0
21.0%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the Houst 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:0121% → 15%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
21.2%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Romello Brooker for 6 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+16
18.9%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 16 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
19.2%
Kyle Allen sacked by Eli Howard for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 34 Kyle Allen fumbled, forced by Eli Howard, recovered by Houst Will Noble , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 16
OWN 34
0
17.3%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 16
OWN 34
+2
16.0%
Kyle Allen run for 2 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q4 8:43
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
14.6%
Dane Roy punt for 52 yds , Cameron Batson returns for no gain to the TexTc 36 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Targeting (6 Yards) to the TexTc 6. De'Quan Bowman EJECTEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 27TD
3 plays · 94 yds · 0:4683% → 95%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+84
17.0%
Justin Stockton run for 84 yds to the Houst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
14.0%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Houst 20Similar
Q4 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+20
5.2%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Justin Stockton for 20 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 28TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 2:536% → 14%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
5.8%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to John LedaySimilar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
5.6%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 4 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
5.6%
Kyle Postma pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:30
4TH & 6
OWN 31
+12
5.1%
Kyle Postma run for 12 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
5.4%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Keith Corbin for 19 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+20
5.1%
Kyle Postma run for 20 yds to the TexTc 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
4.6%
Kyle Postma pass complete to John Leday for 7 yds to the TexTc 11Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 3
OPP 11
0
4.5%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+2
3.9%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the TexTc 9Similar
Q4 4:29
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+9
13.6%
Kyle Postma run for 9 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 29FUMBLE
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:4990% → 93%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
10.1%
Justin Stockton run for 1 yd to the TexTc 26Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
10.0%
Justin Stockton run for 2 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
9.7%
Justin Stockton run for 3 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q4 3:22
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+2
7.1%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 39 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 2 yds to the Houst 32 Brandon McDowell fumbled, forced by Damarcus Fields, recovered by TexTc Damarcus FieldsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 30DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0495% → 96%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
5.2%
Justin Stockton run for 6 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 4
OPP 26
-1
4.9%
Tre King run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 27Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+1
3.9%
Tre King run for 1 yd to the Houst 26Similar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+2
4.4%
Tre King run for 2 yds to the Houst 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 31TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 1:233% → 31%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
3.4%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+14
3.7%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Alex Leslie for 29 yds to the HOUSTON 47 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
3.4%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Alex Leslie for 7 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+11
3.6%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 11 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
3.8%
Kyle Postma pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+10
3.6%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
4.5%
Kyle Postma run for 11 yds to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+19
4.9%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 19 yds to the TexTc 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
31.1%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 4 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:15
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 4 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)
+24.5
TD · Q3 4:48
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 77 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK)
-17.3
TD · Q2 4:41
Kyle Allen pass complete to D'Eriq King for 18 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)
+10.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com