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TCU

TCU 44 at Oklahoma State 31

OKST
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG—OKST 72.0%Jonathan Song 29 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 0 · Q1 10:46
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:46 · Jonathan Song 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Home team on offense−0.5Pregame prior+21.5Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:59: Darius Anderson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +15.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:37: Mason Rudolph pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 14 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +13.9 pts (now 44%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:34: Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +14.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:44: Mason Rudolph run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +17.2 pts (now 21%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:03: Justice Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +24.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:46TCU 4th & 8 at OKST 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:25OKST 4th & 11 at OKST 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:45TCU 4th & 5 at OKST 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:19OKST 4th & 3 at TCU 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    52.4%−0.5
    64% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−3.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:46OKST 4th & 8 at TCU 12, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−4.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:34OKST 4th & 14 at OKST 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:44OKST 4th & 13 at OKST 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−3.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:03TCU 4th & 7 at OKST 14, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    83.6%−5.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:25TCU 4th & 16 at TCU 21, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−3.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:27TCU 4th & 12 at TCU 3, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−3.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:51OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 32, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.2%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 2 of 4TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 2:15OKST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:28TCU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:15TCU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:59TCU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:37OKST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:34TCU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:44OKST Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.1%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:03OKST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.8%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.1%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:37TCU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1FG
15 plays · 64 yds · 4:0727% → 28%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
73.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 11 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
73.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 9 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+5
72.8%
Hill, Kenny pass complete to White, Desmon for 1 yard to the TCU46, PENALTY OKLAST 12 men on the field 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
50
+6
72.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 6 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+10
72.7%
Kenny Hill run for 10 yds to the OKSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
72.6%
Darius Anderson run for 10 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
72.5%
Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+1
72.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 1 yd to the OKSt 21Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+8
72.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 8 yds to the OKSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
71.9%
Kenny Hill run for 2 yds to the OKSt 11Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
71.7%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
71.9%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:46
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+29
72.0%
Jonathan Song 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:0572% → 71%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
72.0%
Justice Hill run for 8 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 2
OWN 30
0
72.1%
Justice Hill run for no gain to the OKSt 30Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+6
71.7%
Justice Hill run for 6 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
71.8%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd to the OKSt 37Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-2
71.7%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 35Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
71.0%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
71.0%
Zach Sinor punt for 42 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:5729% → 30%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
71.4%
Jalen Reagor run for 18 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
70.9%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
71.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 6 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+6
70.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 6 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
70.2%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
70.2%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 44 Darius Anderson fumbled, recovered by TCUSimilar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+3
70.1%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+10
70.2%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the OKSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:2631% → 33%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
69.4%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-4
69.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 35Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 14
OPP 35
+16
69.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 16 yds to the OKSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
68.7%
Darius Anderson run for 6 yds to the OKSt 13Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 4
OPP 13
0
68.6%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 4
OPP 13
-1
68.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jalen Reagor for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 14Similar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+31
67.2%
Jonathan Song 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5TD
3 plays · 90 yds · 0:1568% → 72%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
67.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Justice Hill for 4 yds to the OKSt 14Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+86
71.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 86 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3929% → 36%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.3%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
71.1%
Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
71.2%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
70.1%
Sewo Olonilua run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
70.4%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+13
70.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Darius Anderson for 13 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
69.6%
Kenny Hill run for no gain to the OKSt 28 Kenny Hill fumbled, recovered by TCU OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the OKSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
64.3%
Darius Anderson run for 28 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7FUMBLE
11 plays · 37 yds · 2:0766% → 68%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
66.1%
Justice Hill run for 3 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
66.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 5 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
66.3%
Justice Hill run for 3 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
66.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 18 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
67.4%
Justice Hill run for 2 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
66.6%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+10
66.5%
Mason Rudolph run for 10 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
67.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-4
67.6%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Ben Banogu and TEAM for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 38 Mason Rudolph fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by TCU Jordan Brailford , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 4:1537% → 50%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
62.6%
Kenedy Snell run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 36Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+10
63.3%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
61.9%
Darius Anderson run for 6 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+6
61.1%
Darius Anderson run for 6 yds to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
60.4%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
60.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for 5 yds to the OKSt 37Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+15
59.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 15 yds to the OKSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
58.8%
Darius Anderson run for 11 yds to the OKSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
57.1%
Kenny Hill run for 2 yds to the OKSt 9Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
49.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 9 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 2:0654% → 55%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
53.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 15 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
54.2%
Justice Hill run for 16 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
55.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 11 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
55.1%
Justice Hill run for 4 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
54.9%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+3
53.3%
Justice Hill run for 3 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q2 5:19
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+12
52.5%
Justice Hill run for 12 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
54.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+2
54.0%
Justice Hill run for 2 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
52.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:46
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+29
54.6%
Matt Ammendola 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10INT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:0547% → 50%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
52.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 18 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
51.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 8
50
+3
50.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Darius Anderson for 3 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+7
50.4%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted Tre Flowers return for 7 yds to the OKSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:2652% → 50%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
52.0%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 20Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 14
OWN 20
0
51.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 14
OWN 20
0
50.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:34
4TH & 14
OWN 20
-3
50.1%
Zach Sinor punt for 46 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5350% → 55%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
50.1%
Darius Anderson run for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 25Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 16
OWN 25
+10
50.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 10 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+5
48.2%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the TCU 40Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+7
46.0%
Darius Anderson run for 7 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
45.4%
Kenny Hill run for a loss of 10 yards to the TCU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13INT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:5946% → 45%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
46.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 8 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+17
46.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
50
0
48.0%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 10
50
-7
47.4%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Mat Boesen for a loss of 7 yards to the OKSt 43Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 17
OWN 43
0
44.5%
Mason Rudolph pass intercepted Chris Bradley return for no gain to the OKSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 42 yds · 1:4556% → 74%
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
43.9%
KaVontae Turpin run for 16 yds to the OKSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
43.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 6 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 4
OPP 20
0
42.2%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+8
42.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 8 yds to the OKSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
41.2%
Darius Anderson run for 6 yds to the OKSt 6Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
26.3%
Darius Anderson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 3:1130% → 44%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
29.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 13 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
30.1%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd to the OKSt 36Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+7
29.4%
Justice Hill run for 7 yds to the OKSt 43Similar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+2
30.7%
Justice Hill run for 2 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
30.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+27
30.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 27 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
30.7%
Justice Hill run for 3 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+12
30.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 12 yds to the TCU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
29.9%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 14Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+14
43.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 14 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5660% → 84%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
40.2%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
39.3%
Darius Anderson run for 5 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
39.1%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
36.7%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
36.0%
Kenny Hill run for no gain to the TCU 42Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+43
34.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 43 yds to the OKSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
32.6%
Sewo Olonilua run for 11 yds to the OKSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
32.2%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (2 Yards) to the OKSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
30.4%
Darius Anderson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 1Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:4121% → 20%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
20.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 21 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
22.3%
Justice Hill run for 2 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-8
22.0%
Mason Rudolph sacked by L.J. Collier for a loss of 8 yards to the OKSt 40Similar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 16
OWN 40
+3
19.5%
Justice Hill run for 3 yds to the OKSt 43Similar
Q3 2:44
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
19.5%
Zach Sinor punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 5:3386% → 96%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
14.0%
Kenedy Snell run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 16Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+3
13.6%
Kenny Hill run for 3 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q3 1:18
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+15
13.6%
Sewo Olonilua run for 15 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
12.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 20 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
11.1%
Kenny Hill run for 18 yds to the OKSt 28 Kenny Hill fumbled, recovered by TCU Jalen Reagor for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
10.3%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the OKSt 25Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-10
9.5%
TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OKSt 35Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 17
OPP 35
+18
9.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Darius Anderson for 18 yds to the OKSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
8.7%
Darius Anderson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 16Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+2
8.4%
Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 14Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
8.2%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
4.1%
Jonathan Song 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 2:094% → 21%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
4.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 14 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
4.0%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
3.9%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+13
3.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 13 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
4.1%
Justice Hill run for 11 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
4.2%
Justice Hill run for 17 yds to the TCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
4.4%
J.D. King run for 7 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+3
4.3%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (3 Yards) to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
4.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+13
4.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Justice Hill for 13 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.4%
Mason Rudolph run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 2:1390% → 91%
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
9.8%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 22Similar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+4
9.9%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+7
9.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Darius Anderson for 7 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-12
9.2%
Kenny Hill sacked by Calvin Bundage and Gyasi Akem for a loss of 12 yards to the TCU 21Similar
Q4 7:25
4TH & 16
OWN 21
0
8.9%
Adam Nunez punt for 46 yds, downed at the OKSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21INT
7 plays · 44 yds · 1:1512% → 15%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-15
12.0%
Rudolph, Mason pass incomplete, PENALTY OKLAST pass interference 15 yards to the OKLAST18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 25
OWN 18
0
11.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 25
OWN 18
+13
10.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 13 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+5
10.3%
TCU Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the OKSt 36Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+12
10.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 12 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+29
11.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 29 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
15.0%
Jalen McCleskey pass intercepted Nick Orr return for no gain to the TCU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2393% → 94%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
7.0%
Darius Anderson run for 1 yd to the TCU 6Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 6
-2
6.8%
Darius Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 4Similar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 12
OWN 3
0
6.3%
Adam Nunez punt for 44 yds , Tyron Johnson returns for no gain to the TCU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23TD
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:159% → 34%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
9.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Justice Hill for 10 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+34
7.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 34 yds to the TCU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
10.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
9.6%
Justice Hill run for 2 yds to the TCU 1Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.2%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 0:1488% → 97%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
11.8%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+2
10.7%
Kenny Hill run for 2 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+42
3.1%
Darius Anderson run for 42 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 25INT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:385% → 4%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
4.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
4.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+9
3.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 9 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 1
OWN 32
-2
4.0%
Mason Rudolph pass intercepted L.J. Collier return for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:2098% → 98%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
2.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 34Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 11
OPP 34
-1
2.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 35Similar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 12
OPP 35
-1
2.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:03
Justice Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)
+24.6
TD · Q4 9:44
Mason Rudolph run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)
+17.2
TD · Q3 11:59
Darius Anderson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)
-15
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com