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OU

Oklahoma 49 at Baylor 41

BAY
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:30 · Austin Seibert punt for 42 yds for a 1ST down , Tony Nicholson returns for 42 yds to the OKLAHOMA 34 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Parnell Motley) to the Okla 19 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Pregame prior−45.1Home team on offense−8.2Score differential−3.5Garbage-time factor−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:15: Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 72 yds for a TD, (Zach Smith pass to Tony Nicholson for Two-Point Conversion) — BAY win probability +6.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 8:22: Connor Martin 41 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +4.4 pts (now 26%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:55: Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jeff Badet for 48 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +17.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:31: Trey Sermon run for 34 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +10.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:41: Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 6 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +6.0 pts (now 9%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 8 of 11OU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:05BAY 4th & 12 at OU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:50BAY 4th & 4 at OU 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    6.2%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:45BAY 4th & 3 at OU 17, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.4%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:30OU 4th & 6 at OU 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:39BAY 4th & 7 at OU 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:23OU 4th & 11 at OU 34, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:28BAY 4th & 25 at BAY 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:03OU 4th & 13 at OU 29, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:19OU 4th & 7 at OU 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:22BAY 4th & 6 at OU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−6.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:45BAY 4th & 6 at OU 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.1%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−7.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:56BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:59BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:04BAY 4th & 10 at OU 18, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−2.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:11OU 4th & 14 at OU 49, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:41BAY 4th & 6 at OU 6, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 2 of 4OU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 14:08OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:55OU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:25BAY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:05OU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:06OU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:48BAY Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 14:15BAY Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    14.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    14.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:55OU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:31OU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:55OU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:41BAY Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.2 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%−2.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OUDrive 1TD
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:3797% → 97%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
3.2%
Abdul Adams run for 5 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 5
OPP 24
0
3.3%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Mark AndrewsSimilar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+24
3.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 24 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 5:003% → 4%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Tony Nicholson for no gain Tony Nicholson fumbled, recovered by Bayl Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
3.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 8 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+13
3.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 13 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
3.6%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+7
3.7%
John Lovett run for 7 yds to the Okla 46Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+2
3.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to John Lovett for 2 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
4.0%
John Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 45Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 11
OPP 45
-1
4.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 46Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 12
OPP 46
0
4.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q1 9:05
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
4.1%
Drew Galitz punt for 21 yds, downed at the Okla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:5096% → 96%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
4.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 20 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
4.1%
Baker Mayfield run for 3 yds to the Okla 48Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+52
3.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dimitri Flowers for 52 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4MISSED FG
15 plays · 58 yds · 5:054% → 5%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
3.9%
Jared Atkinson run for 7 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
4.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 4 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
4.1%
John Lovett run for 6 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
4.2%
John Lovett run for no gain to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+18
4.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 18 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
4.3%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Okla 37Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+3
4.3%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
4.4%
John Lovett run for no gain to the Okla 34Similar
Q1 4:50
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+10
4.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 10 yds to the Okla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
4.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 7 yds to the Okla 17Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+1
4.7%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Okla 16Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 2
OPP 16
-1
4.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 17Similar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+35
4.6%
Connor Martin 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:0096% → 95%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
4.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Marquise Brown for 4 yds to the Okla 24Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
4.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Okla 29Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+1
4.4%
Marcelias Sutton run for 1 yd to the Okla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
4.5%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Marquise Brown, broken up by Harrison HandSimilar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
4.5%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Marquise BrownSimilar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+4
4.6%
Baker Mayfield run for 4 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q1 0:30
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+42
4.7%
Austin Seibert punt for 42 yds for a 1ST down , Tony Nicholson returns for 42 yds to the OKLAHOMA 34 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Parnell Motley) to the Okla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6TD
1 play · 19 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
6.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 19 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7TD
2 plays · 99 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+99
4.7%
Abdul Adams run for 99 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8FG
11 plays · 31 yds · 2:215% → 6%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
5.1%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Okla 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
5.1%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+7
5.1%
Terence Williams run for 7 yds to the Okla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
5.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Pooh StricklinSimilar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+15
5.3%
Terence Williams run for no gain to the Okla 32 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Dillon Faamatau) to the Okla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
5.4%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the Okla 16Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+2
5.4%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Okla 14Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
4.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+32
5.9%
Connor Martin 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:2494% → 94%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
5.7%
Abdul Adams run for no gain to the Okla 22Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+47
5.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 47 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
5.7%
Abdul Adams run for no gain to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+28
5.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 28 yds to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
6.1%
Dimitri Flowers run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:075% → 7%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
4.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
4.4%
John Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+71
7.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 71 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:2293% → 93%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
6.8%
Marcelias Sutton run for 2 yds to the Okla 22Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+13
6.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 13 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
6.6%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Taylor Young for a loss of 6 yards to the Okla 29Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+8
6.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 8 yds to the Okla 37Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-3
7.0%
Marcelias Sutton run for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 34Similar
Q2 5:23
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
7.5%
Austin Seibert punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 3:328% → 8%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
7.5%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
7.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 2 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+18
7.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 18 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
8.0%
Terence Williams run for no gain to the Bayl 43Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-5
8.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Rob Saulin) to the Bayl 38Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+3
8.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 3 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 12
OWN 41
-8
7.9%
Zach Smith sacked by Kenneth Mann for a loss of 8 yards to the Bayl 33Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 20
OWN 33
-5
7.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 28Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 25
OWN 28
+2
7.5%
Drew Galitz punt for 53 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for 2 yds to the Okla 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1793% → 92%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
7.4%
Baker Mayfield run for 11 yds to the Okla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
7.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Marquise Brown for 6 yds to the Okla 38Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-9
7.1%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Taylor Young for a loss of 9 yards to the Okla 29Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 13
OWN 29
0
7.6%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to CeeDee Lamb, broken up by Taion SellsSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 13
OWN 29
+5
7.9%
Austin Seibert punt for 52 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 5 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
7.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:158% → 15%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
8.3%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+72
14.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 72 yds for a TD, (Zach Smith pass to Tony Nicholson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:4187% → 84%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
13.0%
Adams, Abdul rush for 9 yards to the OKLAHOMA49, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding 10 yards to the OKLAHOMA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 20
OWN 30
0
14.4%
Abdul Adams run for no gain to the Okla 30Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 20
OWN 30
+13
14.8%
Baker Mayfield run for 13 yds to the Okla 43Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
14.3%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to CeeDee Lamb, broken up by Harrison HandSimilar
Q3 12:19
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
15.7%
Austin Seibert punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 3:4616% → 26%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
15.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 1 yd to the Bayl 21Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
15.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+14
15.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 14 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
16.7%
John Lovett run for 19 yds to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
19.2%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the Okla 42Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+3
19.7%
Zach Smith run for 3 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+11
20.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 11 yds to the Okla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
21.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
21.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 4 yds to the Okla 24Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
21.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to John LovettSimilar
Q3 8:22
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+41
25.6%
Connor Martin 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18FUMBLE
8 plays · 44 yds · 3:1778% → 78%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
22.2%
Marcelias Sutton run for 3 yds to the Okla 28Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
22.5%
Marcelias Sutton run for no gain to the Okla 28Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
24.3%
Abdul Adams run for 13 yds to the Okla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
22.0%
Abdul Adams run for 8 yds to the Okla 49Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 2
OPP 45
-4
21.3%
Abdul Adams run for 6 yds to the BAYLOR 45 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Okla 45Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+7
22.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Abdul Adams for 7 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
22.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Marquise Brown for 17 yds Marquise Brown fumbled, forced by Taion Sells, recovered by Bayl Chris MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19FG
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:5029% → 39%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
29.2%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+2
29.5%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+32
29.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 32 yds to the Okla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
35.6%
Zach Smith run for 4 yds to the Okla 29Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
36.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
34.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Terence WilliamsSimilar
Q3 2:45
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+46
38.9%
Connor Martin 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4562% → 83%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
38.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jeff Badet for 9 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
35.6%
Abdul Adams run for 3 yds to the Okla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
37.8%
Abdul Adams run for 16 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
35.2%
Abdul Adams run for 14 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-15
33.8%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Baker Mayfield) to the Bayl 48Similar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
16.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jeff Badet for 48 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4421% → 20%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
21.3%
Zach Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 24Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
21.4%
Tony Nicholson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
20.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
19.9%
Drew Galitz punt for 47 yds, fair catch by CeeDee Lamb at the Okla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0481% → 92%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
19.5%
Trey Sermon run for 6 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
18.6%
Trey Sermon run for 10 yds to the Okla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
18.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Okla 46Similar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 5
OWN 46
0
18.1%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Jordan SmallwoodSimilar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
18.3%
Trey Sermon run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 1
50
+2
18.5%
Baker Mayfield run for 2 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
18.1%
Trey Sermon run for 12 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
18.2%
Trey Sermon run for 4 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-2
17.3%
Trey Sermon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+34
7.8%
Trey Sermon run for 34 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:269% → 8%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.9%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
8.7%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
8.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q4 9:59
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
8.4%
Drew Galitz punt for 52 yds, fair catch by CeeDee Lamb at the Okla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:5594% → 99%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
6.4%
Baker Mayfield run for 12 yds to the Okla 32 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Okla 22Similar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 8
OPP 18
+69
5.4%
Trey Sermon run for 60 yds to the BAYLOR 18 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (9 Yards) to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
1.2%
Trey Sermon run for 9 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25FG
9 plays · 57 yds · 1:183% → 5%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
3.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 8 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+25
3.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 25 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
3.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 11 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
3.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 13 yds to the Okla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
3.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Trestan EbnerSimilar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
3.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
3.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q4 7:04
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+36
5.0%
Connor Martin 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 2:4498% → 98%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
2.0%
Trey Sermon run for 4 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+5
1.9%
Trey Sermon run for 5 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-10
1.7%
Sermon, Trey rush for 9 yards to the BAYLOR29, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding 10 yards to the BAYLOR48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+2
1.7%
Trey Sermon run for 2 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 4:45
4TH & 9
OPP 46
-5
1.8%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Okla 49Similar
Q4 4:11
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
1.6%
Austin Seibert punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 27TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 2:193% → 9%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
3.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 5 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+16
2.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 16 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
2.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 13 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
3.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 7 yds to the Okla 44Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+5
3.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 5 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-9
3.1%
Zach Smith sacked by D.J. Ward and Kenneth Mann for a loss of 9 yards to the Okla 48 BAYLOR Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Zach Smith) to the Okla 48Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 19
OPP 48
+41
3.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 41 yds to the Okla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
3.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q4 1:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
3.4%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the Okla 3Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
3.2%
Zach Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 6Similar
Q4 1:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
8.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 6 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 28FUMBLE
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:137% → 6%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
7.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Pooh StricklinSimilar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
7.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Parnell MotleySimilar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-9
6.1%
Zach Smith sacked by Ogbonnia Okoronkwo for a loss of 9 yards to the Bayl 39 Zach Smith fumbled, forced by Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, recovered by Okla Caleb Kelly , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:5597% → 97%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
2.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 41Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 12
OPP 41
-2
2.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 14
OPP 43
-2
3.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:55
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jeff Badet for 48 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
-17.1
TD · Q4 10:31
Trey Sermon run for 34 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
-10.6
TD · Q3 14:15
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 72 yds for a TD, (Zach Smith pass to Tony Nicholson for Two-Point Conversion)
+6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com