2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreWVU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:52 · Gabriel Rui 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 0:00: Gabriel Rui 41 yd FG GOOD — KU win probability +8.0 pts (now 9%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:22: Taylor Martin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gabriel Rui KICK) — KU win probability +7.1 pts (now 17%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:02: Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 7 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK) — WVU win probability +5.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:35: Peyton Bender pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 7 yds for a TD, (Gabriel Rui KICK) — KU win probability +12.9 pts (now 19%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:16: Will Grier run for 3 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK) — WVU win probability +6.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9WVU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 15:00KU 4th & 2 at WVU 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.6%57% to convertField goal7.5%−0.154% to makePunt7.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:52KU 4th & 8 at WVU 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.0% before the snapGo for it10.0%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call10.0%87% to makePunt9.6%−0.5average punt
- Q1 8:47WVU 4th & 11 at WVU 39, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snapGo for it89.6%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.7%average punt
- Q1 7:42KU 4th & 5 at KU 47, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snapGo for it10.7%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.7%average punt
- Q2 15:00KU 4th & 6 at WVU 44, down 4Close callPunted · 13.2% before the snapGo for it13.4%40% to convertField goal13.0%−0.427% to makePuntTheir call13.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 13:14KU 4th & 4 at KU 41, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snapGo for it10.8%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.8%average punt
- Q2 8:49KU 4th & 11 at KU 36, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snapGo for it7.6%−0.626% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.2%average punt
- Q2 4:04WVU 4th & 8 at midfield, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.1% before the snapGo for it92.9%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.0%average punt
- Q3 15:00WVU 4th & 2 at WVU 48, up 22Close callPunted · 95.2% before the snapGo for it95.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.0%−0.4average punt
- Q3 8:06KU 4th & 7 at WVU 43, down 15Close callPunted · 10.0% before the snapGo for it10.3%37% to convertField goal9.6%−0.728% to makePuntTheir call10.1%−0.2average punt
- Q3 5:47WVU 4th & 8 at WVU 26, up 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snapGo for it91.7%−0.933% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.6%average punt
- Q3 3:22WVU 4th & 7 at WVU 47, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snapGo for it85.7%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.0%average punt
- Q4 15:00KU 4th & 8 at KU 43, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snapGo for it15.7%−1.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.8%average punt
- Q4 8:39KU 4th & 4 at WVU 23, down 15Close callWent for it · 6.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.3%−<0.147% to convertField goal6.3%70% to makePunt2.6%−3.7average punt
- Q4 3:33WVU 4th & 2 at KU 2, up 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.1%48% to convertField goal99.0%−0.294% to makePunt98.2%−0.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WVU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 3:37WVU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.4%97% to makeGo for two88.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:14WVU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.3%97% to makeGo for two89.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:56WVU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.8%97% to makeGo for two91.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:17WVU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.0%97% to makeGo for two94.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:11KU Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.5%97% to makeGo for two6.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:36WVU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.2%97% to makeGo for two95.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:02KU Touchdown, down 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.7%97% to makeGo for two8.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:22KU Touchdown, down 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call16.8%97% to makeGo for two16.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:02WVU Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.4%97% to makeGo for two92.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 7:35KU Touchdown, down 9 before the tryNumbers favored go for two by 1.2 ptsKicked · madeKickTheir call12.5%−1.297% to makeGo for two13.7%45% to convert
- Q4 5:16WVU Touchdown, up 14 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call95.7%−0.197% to makeGo for two95.8%45% to convert
- Q4 4:42WVU Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKUDrive 1FG17 plays · 64 yds · 6:087% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
9.1%
Will Grier sacked by Joe Dineen Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 4TD8 plays · 80 yds · 2:1789% → 90%
KUDrive 5PUNT11 plays · 43 yds · 3:3110% → 12%
Q1 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+4
10.4%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Taylor Martin for 4 yds to the Kans 17Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+15
10.2%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Tyler Patrick for 15 yds to the Kans 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
10.5%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Tyler Patrick for 1 yd to the Kans 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 6TD7 plays · 80 yds · 1:4388% → 91%
Q2 14:57
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+26
12.1%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 26 yds to the WVirg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
11.4%
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 10 yds to the Kans 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+24
11.4%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 24 yds to the Kans 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
11.2%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 6 yds to the Kans 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
WVUDrive 8TD10 plays · 86 yds · 3:2290% → 94%
Q2 12:18
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+16
9.3%
Will Grier pass complete to Justin Crawford for 16 yds to the Kans 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q2 8:49
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
7.4%
Cole Moos punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Marcus Simms at the WVirg 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 10TD8 plays · 85 yds · 2:1093% → 97%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
6.7%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 8 yds to the WVirg 23Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+6
6.6%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 6 yds to the WVirg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
6.6%
Will Grier run for 2 yds to the WVirg 31 Will Grier fumbled, forced by Keith Loneker Jr.,Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+10
6.7%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 10 yds to the WVirg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
2.8%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 49 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 11TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:062% → 8%
WVUDrive 12PUNT9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
6.2%
Grier, Will pass incomplete to Sills V, David, PENALTY KU pass interference (Taylor,Shakial) 13 yards to the WVU36, 1ST DOWN WVU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+13
6.3%
Will Grier pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 13 yds to the WVirg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
5.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 13INT TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+25
1.3%
Peyton Bender pass intercepted for a TD Mike Daniels Jr. return for 25 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14FG7 plays · 49 yds · 0:301% → 9%
WVUDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
4.7%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 5 yds to the WVirg 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
4.9%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 7 yds to the WVirg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
4.9%
Billy Kinney punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Steven Sims Jr. at the Kans 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16TD10 plays · 89 yds · 3:346% → 11%
Q3 12:36
2ND & 14
OWN 7
+9
5.6%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Ryan Schadler for 9 yds to the Kans 16Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+6
5.7%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Tyler Patrick for 6 yds to the Kans 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
5.8%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 9 yds to the Kans 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 17INT4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
7.2%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 6 yds to the WVirg 36Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+7
7.0%
Will Grier pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for 7 yds to the WVirg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
6.8%
Will Grier pass intercepted Hasan Defense return for no gain to the Kans 43 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 27 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
8.7%
Dom Williams run for 14 yds to the Kans 44 for a 1ST down KANSAS Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) to the Kans 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+12
9.1%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Evan Fairs for 12 yds to the WVirg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
9.8%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Khalil Herbert, broken up by Al-Rasheed BentonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q3 5:47
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
7.4%
Will Grier pass incomplete to David Sills V, broken up by Shakial TaylorSimilar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
7.6%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Kennedy McKoy, broken up by Dorance Armstrong Jr.Similar
Q3 5:47
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
7.8%
Billy Kinney punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Steven Sims Jr. at the Kans 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 20TD4 plays · 67 yds · 1:259% → 17%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+66
8.6%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 64 yds to the KANSAS 3 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, roughing passer (2 Yards) to the WVirg 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
KUDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 27 yds · 0:2515% → 15%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
15.3%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 5 yds to the Kans 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+20
14.5%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 5 yds to the Kans 26 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Elijah Battle) to the Kans 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
17.3%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Jeremiah Booker WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
15.0%
Cole Moos punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Marcus Simms at the WVirg 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 23TD13 plays · 86 yds · 2:5586% → 96%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
14.5%
Will Grier pass complete to Justin Crawford for 9 yds to the WVirg 23Similar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+25
14.6%
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 25 yds to the Kans 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+9
10.2%
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 9 yds to the Kans 12Similar
Q4 11:10
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+5
11.6%
Molina, Mike field goal attempt from 29 GOOD, clock 11:10, PENALTY KU offside defense (Armstrong,D.) 5 yards to the KU7, 1ST DOWN WVU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
9.6%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Ka'Raun White, broken up by Hasan DefenseSimilar
Q4 11:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
3.8%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 7 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 24TD14 plays · 75 yds · 3:277% → 19%
Q4 11:02
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+23
8.3%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Ben Johnson for 23 yds to the WVirg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+2
9.0%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Kerr Johnson Jr. for 2 yds to the WVirg 23Similar
Q4 8:39
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+5
5.7%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 5 yds to the WVirg 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+7
6.2%
Peyton Bender run for a loss of 3 yards to the WVirg 17 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, face mask (10 yards) (Reese Donahue) to the WVirg 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
19.1%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 7 yds for a TD, (Gabriel Rui KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 25TD7 plays · 72 yds · 2:1290% → 98%
KUDrive 26FUMBLE2 plays · 6 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
4.0%
Peyton Bender sacked by Lamonte McDougle for a loss of 10 yards to the Kans 31 Peyton Bender fumbled, recovered by WVirg Dylan Tonkery , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 27TD2 plays · 31 yds · 0:2797% → 100%
KUDrive 28INT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 4:42
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+38
0.9%
Peyton Bender pass intercepted Al-Rasheed Benton return for 38 yds to the Kans 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 29DOWNS4 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 30END OF GAME3 plays · 20 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:35
Peyton Bender pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 7 yds for a TD, (Gabriel Rui KICK)
+12.9
FG · Q2 0:00
Gabriel Rui 41 yd FG GOOD
+8
TD · Q3 3:22
Taylor Martin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gabriel Rui KICK)
+7.1