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ASU

Arizona State 45 at Texas Tech 52

TTU
2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:52 · Dominic Panazzolo punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ryan Newsome at the ArzSt 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 177Home team on offense+0.3Pregame prior+2.6Garbage-time factor−1.4Score differential−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Time remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:25: Nic Shimonek pass complete to Derrick Willies for 28 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK) — TTU win probability +11.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:31: Frank Darby run for 21 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +10.0 pts (now 24%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:37: Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 9 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +11.4 pts (now 28%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:52: Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 21 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +28.3 pts (now 52%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:55: Dylan Cantrell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK) — TTU win probability +27.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5ASU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:50ASU 4th & 4 at TTU 23, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.2%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:50TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 32, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:48ASU 4th & 7 at TTU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    31.3%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:25ASU 4th & 7 at ASU 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:07ASU 4th & 8 at ASU 38, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:22TTU 4th & 1 at ASU 26, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    87.5%−1.9
    64% to make
    Punt
    82.6%−6.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:25ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 35, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.2%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:06TTU 4th & 2 at ASU 21, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.0%−0.6
    74% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−4.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00TTU 4th & 2 at TTU 33, up 7
    Close callPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:27ASU 4th & 3 at TTU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    15.9%−3.9
    27% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−2.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:52TTU 4th & 15 at TTU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−6.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:40ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 49, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.1 ptsPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%−4.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:55ASU 4th & 30 at ASU 17, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%−0.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ASU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 4:25TTU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:48TTU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:04TTU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:42ASU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:34ASU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:31TTU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:30TTU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:49ASU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 9:25TTU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 6:31ASU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 0:37ASU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 9:52ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 1:55TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1MISSED FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:1034% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
66.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 12 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
66.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
50
+6
66.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 6 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-5
66.0%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+20
66.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 5 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
66.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+3
66.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
66.0%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:50
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+41
65.5%
Brandon Ruiz 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
65.7%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
65.7%
Nic Shimonek pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+9
65.5%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Derrick Willies for 9 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q1 11:50
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
65.6%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:1435% → 35%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
65.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+8
65.5%
Demario Richard run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+18
65.4%
Manny Wilkins run for 18 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
65.1%
N'Keal Harry run for 17 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
65.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+1
65.0%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the TexTc 25Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 6
OPP 25
-1
64.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 26Similar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+44
64.7%
Brandon Ruiz 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2365% → 68%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
64.7%
Justin Stockton run for 5 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
64.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 8 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
65.0%
Justin Stockton run for 6 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+6
65.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
50
0
65.5%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Justin StocktonSimilar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 10
50
+15
65.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 15 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
65.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Derrick Willies for 9 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+8
65.9%
Justin Stockton run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
65.9%
Justin Stockton run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+12
67.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 12 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
67.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Ryan Jenkins for 1 yd to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+2
67.1%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
67.3%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kalen BallageSimilar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 7
OWN 30
+8
67.7%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 50 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 8 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 0:5267% → 72%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+26
66.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Justin Stockton for 26 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+35
67.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 35 yds to the ArzSt 11 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
71.7%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 11 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-4
71.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 22 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TexTc Mychealon ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 22 yds · 1:0572% → 79%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
72.0%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Justin Stockton for 3 yds to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 7
OPP 19
-10
72.0%
Nic Shimonek sacked by Joey Bryant for a loss of 10 yards to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q1 0:04
3RD & 17
OPP 29
+29
78.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 29 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:2222% → 29%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
77.9%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Dakota Allen for a loss of 9 yards to the ArzSt 16 Manny Wilkins fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+10
78.1%
Wilkins, Manny sacked for loss of 11 yards to the ASU5 (Allen, Dakota), PENALTY TTU holding (Jones, Tony) 10 yards to the ASU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
78.0%
Wilkins, Manny pass incomplete to Harvey, Jalen (Johnson, Jah.), PENALTY TTU pass interference (Johnson, Jah.) 15 yards to the ASU41, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
77.5%
Kalen Ballage run for 14 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
77.0%
Manny Wilkins run for 11 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
76.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Ryan JenkinsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
76.7%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+15
77.1%
Wilkins, Manny pass incomplete to Harry, N'Keal, PENALTY TTU unsportsmanlike conduct (Polite-Bray, DJ) 15 yards to the TTU16, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
76.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Ryan Newsome for 2 yds to the TexTc 14 TEXAS TECH Penalty, personal foul (Jah'Shawn Johnson) to the TexTc 7Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
76.5%
Manny Wilkins run for 4 yds to the TexTc 3Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
71.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 3 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10FUMBLE
9 plays · 75 yds · 0:0074% → 75%
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.3%
Justin Stockton run for 2 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
74.3%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Derrick WilliesSimilar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+20
73.8%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 20 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
75.2%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 6 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+6
75.4%
Desmond Nisby run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+24
75.3%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 24 yds to the ArzSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
75.4%
Desmond Nisby run for 15 yds to the ArzSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
75.4%
Desmond Nisby run for 1 yd Desmond Nisby fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Dasmond TautalatasiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:5025% → 36%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
74.7%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
74.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 6 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
74.5%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
74.3%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+4
74.3%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+24
74.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 24 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
73.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 15 yds to the TexTc 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+21
72.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 21 yds to the TexTc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.7%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0368% → 78%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+47
67.7%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 47 yds to the ArzSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
69.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Justin Stockton for 4 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+10
69.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 10 yds to the ArzSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
69.9%
Tre King run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
78.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Mason Reed for 10 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 12 yds · 2:2422% → 20%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
77.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 8 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+1
76.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 1 yd to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+1
77.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
77.3%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Demario RichardSimilar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-13
77.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 2 yds to the ArzSt 38 ARIZONA ST Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 23
OWN 23
+12
78.3%
Manny Wilkins run for 12 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+3
79.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 3 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
79.6%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt blocked by Ja'Deion High blocked by Ja'Deion High Donta Thompson return for no gain to the ArzSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 27 yds · 0:3782% → 87%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-7
82.2%
Nic Shimonek sacked by JoJo Wicker for a loss of 7 yards to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 17
OPP 34
+4
81.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Justin Stockton for 4 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 13
OPP 30
+16
81.2%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 16 yds to the ArzSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
87.1%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 14 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · -11 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.3%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Jalen HarveySimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-11
85.6%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Mychealon Thomas for a loss of 11 yards to the ArzSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 48 yds · 1:3886% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.9%
Nic Shimonek pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+29
85.8%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 29 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
86.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 11 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
86.4%
Justin Stockton run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
86.4%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Cameron Batson, broken up by Dasmond TautalatasiSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+7
85.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 7 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 1
OPP 26
-1
87.9%
Justin Stockton run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:2714% → 25%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+54
85.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 54 yds to the TexTc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
82.9%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the TexTc 15Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+7
82.9%
Manny Wilkins run for 7 yds to the TexTc 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
82.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 7 yds to the TexTc 1Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2479% → 92%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
79.2%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Mason Reed for 16 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
80.6%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+19
80.2%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Justin Stockton for 19 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
81.0%
Justin Stockton run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+1
80.9%
Nic Shimonek run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+3
80.3%
Desmond Nisby run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
91.7%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Derrick Willies for 28 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 2:5411% → 24%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
89.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Terrell Chatman for 8 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+1
88.0%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
88.5%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q3 9:25
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+1
88.5%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
88.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Demario RichardSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+28
88.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 28 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
87.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 5 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+10
86.4%
Demario Richard run for 10 yds to the TexTc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
76.4%
Frank Darby run for 21 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 3:2581% → 88%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
81.3%
Justin Stockton run for 1 yd to the TexTc 26Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
81.1%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Derrick Willies for 10 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
82.1%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
50
+6
83.1%
Desmond Nisby run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+4
83.1%
Desmond Nisby run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
83.2%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 11 yds to the ArzSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
83.2%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Donta ThompsonSimilar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+8
83.1%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 8 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 2
OPP 21
0
82.5%
Nic Shimonek pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+39
88.4%
Michael Barden 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 2:2913% → 28%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
87.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Terrell ChatmanSimilar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
87.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+16
86.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 16 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
85.8%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Jalen HarveySimilar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+26
86.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 26 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
84.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 15 yds to the TexTc 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
83.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+7
83.6%
Manny Wilkins run for 7 yds to the TexTc 9Similar
Q3 0:37
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+9
72.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 9 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:3782% → 82%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
81.6%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 8 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
83.5%
Desmond Nisby run for no gain to the TexTc 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
82.5%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+11
81.6%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 40 yds , Ryan Newsome returns for 11 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 4:1022% → 52%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
77.8%
Demario Richard run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+4
76.5%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
75.9%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 9
50
+5
75.8%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+1
76.0%
Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd to the TexTc 44Similar
Q4 11:27
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+17
80.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 17 yds to the TexTc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
76.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 5 yds to the TexTc 22Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+1
76.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the TexTc 21Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+21
47.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 21 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0059% → 55%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.5%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
58.1%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 8 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
58.9%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (Paul Stawarz) to the TexTc 28Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-8
56.3%
Nic Shimonek sacked by JoJo Wicker for a loss of 8 yards to the TexTc 20 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
54.6%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ryan Newsome at the ArzSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1851% → 48%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
49.2%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+2
48.3%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
48.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kalen Ballage, broken up by Dakota AllenSimilar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
52.1%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 26TD
14 plays · 90 yds · 4:3160% → 96%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
60.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 15 yds to the TexTc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.8%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.4%
Justin Stockton run for 2 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
58.8%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 12 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
63.2%
Justin Stockton run for no gain to the TexTc 39Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
62.6%
Shimonek, Nic pass incomplete to Coutee, Keke, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Chatman, T.) 12 yards to the ASU49, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
66.2%
Desmond Nisby run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+19
66.7%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 19 yds to the ArzSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
68.9%
Justin Stockton run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 17Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+10
68.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 10 yds to the ArzSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
68.9%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q4 6:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
68.9%
Desmond Nisby run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 3Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.8%
Dylan Cantrell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 27DOWNS
7 plays · -8 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
92.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 12 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
91.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kalen BallageSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
91.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal Harry, broken up by Justus ParkerSimilar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-5
92.6%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, false start (Zach Robertson) to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 15
OWN 32
-15
93.0%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Zach Barnes and Eli Howard for a loss of 15 yards to the ArzSt 17Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 30
OWN 17
0
93.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 12
OPP 19
-1
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:52
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 21 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
-28.3
TD · Q4 1:55
Dylan Cantrell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK)
+27.5
TD · Q3 9:25
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Derrick Willies for 28 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK)
+11.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com