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TEX

Texas 24 at USC 27

USC
2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:06 · Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsDefense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 14Pregame prior+35.9Home team on offense−0.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Time remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Defense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 0:45: Armanti Foreman 17 Yd pass from Sam Ehlinger (Joshua Rowland Kick) — TEX win probability +69.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 0:00: Chase McGrath 31 yd FG GOOD — USC win probability +35.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Deontay Burnett 25 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Chase McGrath Kick) — USC win probability +22.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Cade Brewer 3 Yd pass from Sam Ehlinger (Joshua Rowland Kick) — TEX win probability +39.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. FG · OT2 0:00: Chase McGrath 43 Yd Field Goal — USC win probability +21.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TEX made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 11:45USC 4th & 4 at TEX 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    85.9%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    85.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:06TEX 4th & 2 at USC 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    14.7%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:32USC 4th & 1 at TEX 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    83.2%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:13USC 4th & 15 at TEX 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    82.4%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:50USC 4th & 16 at TEX 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    80.3%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:40TEX 4th & 7 at USC 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    20.2%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:40USC 4th & 10 at USC 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:15TEX 4th & 10 at USC 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    20.8%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:11USC 4th & 2 at USC 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:56TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:30TEX 4th & 28 at TEX 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−1.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:30TEX 4th & 11 at USC 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−5.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:57USC 4th & 3 at TEX 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    78.2%−1.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    77.8%−2.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:02TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 40, down 4
    Close callPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:34USC 4th & 7 at USC 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−1.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:15TEX 4th & 14 at TEX 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−3.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:05USC 4th & 4 at USC 47, up 4
    Close callPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%−0.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:38TEX 4th & 2 at TEX 27, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%−1.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:55TEX 4th & 1 at TEX 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.3%−7.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:07TEX 4th & 10 at USC 28, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.0%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    16.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−9.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TEX made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 2:40USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:19TEX Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:00USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:45TEX Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:4988% → 87%
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
88.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+14
88.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 14 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
88.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 10 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
87.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 11 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
87.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the Texas 42Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+8
87.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 8 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 1
OPP 34
-3
87.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 37Similar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
87.4%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2DOWNS
5 plays · 43 yds · 1:2413% → 13%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+38
87.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 48 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
86.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
86.7%
Chris Warren III run for 3 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+5
86.6%
Jerrod Heard run for 5 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q1 10:06
4TH & 2
OPP 17
-3
86.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3DOWNS
13 plays · 79 yds · 5:1387% → 85%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
86.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
86.7%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+23
86.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Jalen Greene for 23 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
86.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Stephen Carr for 18 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
86.7%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+12
86.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 12 yds to the Texas 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
86.4%
Stephen Carr run for 6 yds to the Texas 12Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+2
86.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the Texas 10Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+6
85.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the Texas 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
86.0%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the Texas 4Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
85.9%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
85.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the Texas 1Similar
Q1 4:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
85.1%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the Texas 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
84.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass intercepted Jack Jones return for no gain to the Texas 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 2:1286% → 84%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
85.6%
USC Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Texas 39Similar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 15
OPP 39
-1
85.1%
Sam Darnold run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 40Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 16
OPP 40
-5
84.9%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 45Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 21
OPP 45
-4
84.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 49Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 25
OPP 49
+10
84.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 10 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q1 2:13
4TH & 15
OPP 39
0
83.8%
Reid Budrovich punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 2 yds · 1:1116% → 17%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
83.6%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
83.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for 3 yds to the Texas 25Similar
Q1 0:47
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-3
83.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 22 Sam Ehlinger fumbled, recovered by USCSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7MISSED FG
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:4485% → 83%
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
84.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 7
OPP 19
-9
84.5%
Sam Darnold sacked by Anthony Wheeler for a loss of 9 yards to the Texas 28Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 16
OPP 28
0
83.6%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 16
OPP 28
+46
82.9%
Chase McGrath 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:0518% → 19%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
82.5%
Jerrod Heard run for 1 yd to the Texas 29Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+3
82.4%
Chris Warren III run for 3 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+7
82.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 7 yds to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
81.0%
Chris Warren III run for 4 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
80.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lorenzo Joe for 4 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-1
80.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 39Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
80.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:40
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
81.0%
Michael Dickson punt for 36 yds, downed at the USC 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3282% → 80%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
81.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for no gain to the USC 3Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
81.6%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 10
OWN 3
0
80.9%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 10
OWN 3
0
80.1%
Reid Budrovich punt for 38 yds, downed at the USC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0521% → 20%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
78.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for 4 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-4
78.2%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Uchenna Nwosu for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 41Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
78.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
79.6%
Michael Dickson punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:0081% → 79%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
80.9%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
80.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Stephen Carr for 3 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+7
79.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 7 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
80.4%
Stephen Carr run for 8 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
81.4%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the USC 38Similar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
80.4%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the USC 38Similar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
79.1%
Reid Budrovich punt for 52 yds, downed at the Texas 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1523% → 22%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
77.4%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 5Similar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+2
77.5%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the Texas 7Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 13
OWN 7
+3
77.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 3 yds to the Texas 10Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
77.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:56
4TH & 10
OWN 10
0
78.1%
Michael Dickson punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:1081% → 86%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
80.8%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+11
80.6%
Stephen Carr run for 11 yds to the Texas 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-3
80.9%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 29Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 13
OPP 29
+11
80.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 11 yds to the Texas 18Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+3
79.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the Texas 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
85.9%
Deontay Burnett 15 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 7 yds · 1:4117% → 15%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
83.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 2 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-5
83.3%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 29Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+28
83.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 28 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-6
81.4%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Porter Gustin for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 49Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 16
OPP 49
-3
83.8%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Porter Gustin for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 48Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 19
OWN 48
-9
84.5%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Christian Rector for a loss of 9 yards to the Texas 39Similar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 28
OWN 39
+3
85.1%
Michael Dickson punt for 41 yds , Ajene Harris returns for 3 yds to the USC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+38
76.3%
DeShon Elliott 38 Yd Interception Return (Joshua Rowland Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16END OF HALF
5 plays · 62 yds · 0:0577% → 86%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
77.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+56
85.8%
Ronald Jones II 56 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 5:0616% → 21%
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
83.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 4 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+1
83.2%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the Texas 29Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+24
83.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 24 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
81.5%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the USC 46Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
81.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+10
82.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 10 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
81.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for 6 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+9
79.8%
Armanti Foreman run for 9 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
79.6%
Jerrod Heard run for 1 yd to the USC 20Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 9
OPP 20
-5
79.4%
TEXAS Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the USC 25Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 14
OPP 25
+3
80.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 3 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 11
OPP 22
0
81.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:30
4TH & 11
OPP 22
+39
79.3%
Joshua Rowland 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18DOWNS
12 plays · 41 yds · 3:3380% → 81%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
80.4%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 20Similar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+14
80.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 14 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
81.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
80.8%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the USC 37Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+20
80.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 20 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
82.0%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the Texas 43Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
82.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 6 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+1
81.7%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the Texas 36Similar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+2
80.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 2 yds to the Texas 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5021% → 20%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
78.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
79.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 6 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
77.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:02
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
79.6%
Michael Dickson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ajene Harris at the USC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 30 yds · 2:0379% → 78%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+27
79.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 27 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
81.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the USC 41Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-7
80.9%
Sam Darnold sacked by Charles Omenihu for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 34Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 16
OWN 34
+9
78.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 9 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q3 2:34
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+27
78.4%
Reid Budrovich punt for 56 yds , Reggie Hemphill-Mapps returns for 27 yds to the Texas 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:5223% → 20%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
77.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-10
77.1%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the Texas 35 TEXAS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the Texas 20Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 18
OWN 20
+14
79.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for 14 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q3 0:30
4TH & 4
OWN 34
-10
78.6%
TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Texas 24Similar
Q3 0:15
4TH & 14
OWN 24
-3
79.8%
Michael Dickson punt for 44 yds , Ajene Harris returns for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:5779% → 79%
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
79.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Joseph Lewis IV for 12 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
80.9%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 40Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+6
79.5%
Sam Darnold run for 6 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+1
79.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 1 yd to the USC 47Similar
Q4 13:05
4TH & 4
OWN 47
+2
78.5%
Reid Budrovich punt for 53 yds , Reggie Hemphill-Mapps returns for 2 yds to the Texas 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:0923% → 22%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+17
77.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 17 yds to the Texas 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
76.8%
Jerrod Heard run for 4 yds to the Texas 23Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 6
OWN 23
0
76.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+4
78.0%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (4 Yards) to the Texas 27Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 2
OWN 27
0
76.6%
Fumbled by TM, Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
78.4%
Michael Dickson punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Ajene Harris at the USC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24INT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:5578% → 76%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
77.9%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
77.6%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+10
76.2%
Sam Darnold run for 10 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
78.0%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
77.6%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+24
76.2%
Sam Darnold pass intercepted DeShon Elliott return for 24 yds to the USC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:2231% → 32%
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
69.1%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 30Similar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+3
71.2%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+14
69.0%
Reggie Hemphill-Mapps run for 14 yds to the USC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
67.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
67.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass intercepted Marvell Tell III return for no gain to the USC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 26PUNT
15 plays · 32 yds · 3:4677% → 84%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
77.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 14 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
77.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
80.1%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+10
78.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 10 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
82.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 10 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
84.2%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 44Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+22
83.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 22 yds to the Texas 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
85.4%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
85.3%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 10
OPP 22
-5
84.2%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 27Similar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 15
OPP 27
-5
83.3%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 32Similar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 20
OPP 32
-11
84.6%
Sam Darnold sacked by Jeffrey McCulloch and Anthony Wheeler for a loss of 11 yards to the Texas 43Similar
Q4 5:34
4TH & 31
OPP 43
-5
82.4%
USC Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Texas 48Similar
Q4 5:14
4TH & 36
OPP 48
0
84.3%
Reid Budrovich punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Reggie Hemphill-Mapps at the Texas 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 27TD
18 plays · 91 yds · 4:0824% → 95%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
76.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Armanti Foreman for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 5Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 14
OWN 5
-3
76.8%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-3 Yards) to the Texas 2Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 17
OWN 2
+17
78.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 17 yds to the Texas 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
77.5%
Chris Warren III run for 5 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
76.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+4
78.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 4 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+2
77.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
75.5%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 25Similar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 15
OWN 25
0
79.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+47
79.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 47 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
66.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
69.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
72.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+11
82.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 11 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
74.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
5.1%
Armanti Foreman 17 Yd pass from Sam Ehlinger (Joshua Rowland Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 28END OF GAME
10 plays · 52 yds · 0:3720% → 64%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
20.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 13 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
22.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+21
19.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Stephen Carr for 21 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
29.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+18
23.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 18 yds to the Texas 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
30.3%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
28.0%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+31
63.5%
Chase McGrath 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 29TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
86.4%
Deontay Burnett 25 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 30TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
80.4%
Reggie Hemphill-Mapps run for no gain to the USC 25Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-10
82.4%
TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USC 35Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 20
OPP 35
+21
85.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 21 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
80.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lorenzo Joe for 11 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
40.6%
Cade Brewer 3 Yd pass from Sam Ehlinger (Joshua Rowland Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 31FUMBLE
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-8
40.5%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Christian Rector for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 33Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 18
OPP 33
+11
43.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 11 yds to the USC 22Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+11
43.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Chris Warren III for 11 yds to the USC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
40.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for 8 yds to the USC 3Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 3
-4
40.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 7 Sam Ehlinger fumbled, recovered by USCSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 32FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0065% → 79%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
64.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the Texas 24Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
64.7%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
62.2%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+43
79.0%
Chase McGrath 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:45
Armanti Foreman 17 Yd pass from Sam Ehlinger (Joshua Rowland Kick)
-69
TD · OT 0:00
Cade Brewer 3 Yd pass from Sam Ehlinger (Joshua Rowland Kick)
-39.9
FG · Q4 0:00
Chase McGrath 31 yd FG GOOD
+35.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com