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SMU

SMU 36 at TCU 56

TCU
2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:17 · Adam Nunez punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the SMU 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 131Pregame prior+18.5Home team on offense+17.6Score differential+8.2Garbage-time factor+7.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.8Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:40: Kenedy Snell 71 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Jonathan Song Kick) — TCU win probability +7.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:00: Jalen Reagor 38 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Jonathan Song Kick) — TCU win probability +7.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:32: Darius Anderson 4 Yd Run (Jonathan Song Kick) — TCU win probability +5.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:39: Ke'Mon Freeman 34 Yd Run (Josh Williams Kick) — SMU win probability +12.9 pts (now 21%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:27: Darius Anderson 38 Yd Run (Jonathan Song Kick) — TCU win probability +10.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 5:01SMU 4th & 9 at TCU 11, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:39TCU 4th & 8 at SMU 33, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    84.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    84.2%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:46SMU 4th & 3 at TCU 32, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    16.4%−0.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:10SMU 4th & 10 at TCU 17, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:20SMU 4th & 8 at TCU 45, up 5
    Close callPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    20.9%−1.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:17SMU 4th & 4 at TCU 4, down 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.6%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−4.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:55SMU 4th & 8 at TCU 30, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    8.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:01SMU 4th & 12 at TCU 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:17TCU 4th & 18 at TCU 28, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−2.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:05TCU 4th & 1 at SMU 40, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    81.7%−3.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−2.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:22SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 33, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:02TCU 4th & 6 at SMU 42, up 20
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:18TCU 4th & 1 at SMU 8, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:48SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    9.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:00TCU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:21SMU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:30TCU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:40TCU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:00TCU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:32TCU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:39SMU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:27TCU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:35TCU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 7:43TCU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 6:50SMU Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:127% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 32
-13
93.5%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 32 SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the SMU 17Similar
Q1 14:40
1ST & 18
OWN 17
+6
93.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Jones for 6 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+16
93.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 16 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
93.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+58
92.9%
Trey Quinn 58 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 1:1893% → 93%
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+41
92.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 41 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
92.8%
Darius Anderson run for 5 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+18
92.7%
Kenny Hill run for 18 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
92.7%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
92.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
92.7%
Kenedy Snell 10 Yd Run (Jonathan Song Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 2:098% → 9%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
92.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 5 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+2
92.4%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+32
92.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 32 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+36
92.0%
Trey Quinn pass complete to Braeden West for 34 yds to the TCU 4 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (2 Yards) to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
91.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the TCU 1Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman 1 Yd Run (Josh Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4FUMBLE
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:0091% → 91%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-6
91.3%
Kenny Hill sacked by Tyeson Neals for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 24Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 15
OWN 24
+10
91.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 10 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+10
91.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 10 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
91.1%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+26
90.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 26 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+56
91.0%
KaVontae Turpin run for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 12 KaVontae Turpin fumbled, recovered by SMU , return for 56 yds to the TCU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4910% → 11%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
90.1%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+1
90.1%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the TCU 11Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 9
OPP 11
0
89.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Braeden WestSimilar
Q1 5:01
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+29
89.3%
Josh Williams 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6FUMBLE
11 plays · 30 yds · 3:0890% → 87%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
89.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+8
89.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
50
-1
89.1%
Kenny Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 49Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+7
88.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 7 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+9
88.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Dylan Thomas for 9 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
88.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Dylan Thomas for 2 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
88.1%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Dylan ThomasSimilar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
87.7%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Dylan ThomasSimilar
Q1 1:39
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+8
86.8%
TEAM run for no gain to the SMU 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SMU Kyran Mitchell , return for 8 yds to the SMU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7FG
12 plays · 35 yds · 4:2413% → 19%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
86.7%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+13
86.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 13 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
86.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 6 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+1
85.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the TCU 32Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 3
OPP 32
0
85.4%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+4
85.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 4 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
84.7%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+8
84.2%
Braeden West run for 8 yds to the TCU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
84.1%
Braeden West run for 6 yds to the TCU 11Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 4
OPP 11
-6
83.2%
Ben Hicks run for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 17Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
83.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+34
80.8%
Josh Williams 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:3582% → 83%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
81.8%
TCU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TCU 20Similar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+14
81.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 14 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
81.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 7 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
81.0%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 38Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 13
OWN 38
0
80.5%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+15
79.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 15 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
80.8%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
80.7%
Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+18
79.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 18 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
80.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 8 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+5
79.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
79.3%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the SMU 14Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+3
78.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
83.2%
Shaun Nixon 11 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Jonathan Song Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:5918% → 20%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
81.6%
Braeden West run for 5 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+22
80.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 22 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
79.2%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
78.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey QuinnSimilar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
79.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q2 5:20
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
79.9%
Jamie Sackville punt for 42 yds, downed at the TCU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 97 yds · 2:3079% → 85%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
78.8%
Darius Anderson run for 8 yds to the TCU 11Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 2
OWN 11
+3
78.6%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
78.1%
Kenedy Snell run for 3 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+14
77.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 14 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
77.7%
Sewo Olonilua run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+71
85.0%
Kenedy Snell 71 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Jonathan Song Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 1:5616% → 23%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
83.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+26
83.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 26 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
81.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-1
80.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+28
81.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Mitchell Kaufman for 28 yds to the TCU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
80.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the TCU 4Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
80.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
81.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Kyran MitchellSimilar
Q2 0:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
77.4%
Josh Williams 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 56 yds · 0:0382% → 89%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
81.8%
Kenedy Snell run for 18 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
88.8%
Jalen Reagor 38 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Jonathan Song Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13TD
13 plays · 73 yds · 4:0388% → 94%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
87.7%
Darius Anderson run for 1 yd to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+10
87.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 10 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
88.1%
Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+11
88.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 11 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+29
88.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 29 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
88.2%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+15
88.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 15 yds to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
88.8%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the SMU 2Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
88.8%
Sewo Olonilua run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 4Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
93.9%
Darius Anderson 4 Yd Run (Jonathan Song Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 45 yds · 2:177% → 8%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.2%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
92.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Jones for 4 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
92.6%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
92.1%
TCU Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
91.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
91.5%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
92.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Mitchell KaufmanSimilar
Q3 7:55
4TH & 8
OPP 30
0
92.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey QuinnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15FUMBLE
1 play · -7 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
93.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 23 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SMU Nick HortonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16MISSED FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:269% → 7%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
91.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 25Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 12
OPP 25
0
91.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Mitchell KaufmanSimilar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 12
OPP 25
0
92.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey QuinnSimilar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 12
OPP 25
+42
92.7%
Josh Williams 42 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Ross BlacklockSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:2194% → 94%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.0%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
94.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 7 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
94.5%
Kenny Hill sacked by Tyeson Neals for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 16
OWN 30
0
94.4%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Desmon WhiteSimilar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 16
OWN 30
-2
94.2%
Kenny Hill sacked by Anthony Rhone for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 18
OWN 28
0
93.9%
Adam Nunez punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the SMU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:317% → 21%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
92.7%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+6
92.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 6 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
92.5%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
92.6%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+19
92.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 19 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
92.3%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+34
79.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman 34 Yd Run (Josh Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:4888% → 97%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
87.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Cole Hunt for 11 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
87.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Shaun Nixon for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 49Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+4
86.9%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q4 14:38
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+7
86.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 7 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+2
85.9%
Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
96.6%
Darius Anderson 38 Yd Run (Jonathan Song Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:505% → 4%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
94.6%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+18
95.3%
Xavier Jones run for 18 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
94.7%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
94.6%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+1
95.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 1 yd to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
95.6%
Jamie Sackville punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 2:2596% → 99%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
96.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 18 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+31
96.9%
Sewo Olonilua run for 31 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
97.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 5 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+2
97.0%
Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 3
OPP 22
-5
97.0%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 27Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+27
99.2%
KaVontae Turpin 27 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Jonathan Song Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22INT TD
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:371% → 0%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 6 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-13
99.1%
SMU Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-13 Yards) to the SMU 13Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+19
99.9%
Travin Howard 19 Yd Interception Return (Jonathan Song Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 0:400% → 1%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+61
99.2%
James Proche 61 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 2:4799% → 99%
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
99.3%
TCU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TCU 49Similar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+7
99.3%
Darius Anderson run for 7 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
-3
99.4%
Darius Anderson run for 7 yds to the SMU 37 TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SMU 47Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+4
99.5%
Sewo Olonilua run for 4 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+6
99.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 6 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q4 4:12
4TH & 1
OPP 37
-5
99.4%
TCU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SMU 42Similar
Q4 4:02
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
99.4%
Adam Nunez punt for 30 yds, downed at the SMU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
99.5%
Ben Hicks pass intercepted Ranthony Texada return for 1 yd to the SMU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:17100% → 100%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
99.5%
Sewo Olonilua run for 4 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+4
99.6%
Sewo Olonilua run for 4 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+3
99.6%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the SMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
99.7%
Kenedy Snell run for 6 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+3
99.7%
Kenedy Snell run for 3 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
99.7%
Kenedy Snell run for no gain to the SMU 8Similar
Q4 0:18
4TH & 1
OPP 8
-6
99.6%
Kenedy Snell run for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
99.5%
Kayce Medlock run for 4 yds to the SMU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:39
Ke'Mon Freeman 34 Yd Run (Josh Williams Kick)
-12.9
TD · Q4 13:27
Darius Anderson 38 Yd Run (Jonathan Song Kick)
+10.7
TD · Q2 2:40
Kenedy Snell 71 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Jonathan Song Kick)
+7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com