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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadTULN aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreTULN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:03 · Zachary Block punt for 59 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:04: Johnathan Brantley run for 14 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +0.7 pts (now 4%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:11: Baker Mayfield pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 22 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +0.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:50: Johnathan Brantley pass intercepted for a TD Parnell Motley return for 77 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +1.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:34: Baker Mayfield pass complete to Abdul Adams for 20 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +1.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:58: Marcelias Sutton run for 9 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2TULN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q2 11:18TULN 4th & 1 at OU 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.5%70% to convertField goal7.0%−0.530% to makePunt7.1%−0.4average punt
- Q2 5:33TULN 4th & 10 at OU 36, down 7Close callPunted · 6.5% before the snapGo for it6.3%−<0.130% to convertField goal6.3%42% to makePuntTheir call6.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 1:40TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 25, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snapGo for it4.4%−0.235% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.6%average punt
- Q2 0:58OU 4th & 3 at OU 48, up 14Close callPunted · 95.4% before the snapGo for it95.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.2%−0.1average punt
- Q3 13:03TULN 4th & 9 at TULN 41, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snapGo for it4.5%−0.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.9%average punt
- Q3 10:11OU 4th & 8 at TULN 47, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snapGo for it95.3%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.5%average punt
- Q3 8:12TULN 4th & 2 at TULN 23, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snapGo for it5.0%−0.156% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.1%average punt
- Q4 7:30TULN 4th & 2 at TULN 49, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 5:06TULN 4th & 8 at OU 45, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.134% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.125% to makePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 0:24TULN 4th & 8 at TULN 27, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8TULN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:30TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.8%97% to makeGo for two3.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:32OU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.3%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:04TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.4%97% to makeGo for two5.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:11OU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.3%97% to makeGo for two94.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:50OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.9%97% to makeGo for two93.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:34OU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.4%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:58OU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:35OU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:29OU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:42OU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two100.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOUDrive 1FUMBLE6 plays · 40 yds · 1:5598% → 98%
Q1 13:55
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
98.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 10 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+29
98.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 29 yds Mark Andrews fumbled, forced by Chase Kuerschen, recovered by Tulan Jarrod FranklinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2TD9 plays · 65 yds · 3:102% → 3%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
98.1%
Johnathan Brantley pass complete to Jabril Clewis for 7 yds to the Tulan 42Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 3
OWN 44
-8
98.1%
Johnathan Brantley run for 2 yds to the Tulan 44 TULANE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Tulan 34Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+7
97.7%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (7 Yards) to the Okla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3TD3 plays · 81 yds · 0:4898% → 98%
TULNDrive 4TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:203% → 4%
OUDrive 5TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:4596% → 97%
Q1 3:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+13
96.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Marquise Brown for 13 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
95.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 3 yds to the Tulan 22Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+22
96.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 22 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6INT TD15 plays · 48 yds · 6:164% → 5%
TULNDrive 7PUNT11 plays · 39 yds · 4:104% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8TD11 plays · 95 yds · 2:5195% → 97%
Q2 4:51
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+24
95.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 24 yds to the Okla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-13
95.4%
Jeff Badet run for 2 yds to the Okla 42 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Okla 43Similar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 23
OWN 43
+25
95.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 25 yds to the Tulan 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
95.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Marquise Brown for 9 yds to the Tulan 23Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
96.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Abdul Adams for 20 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 3 yds · 0:434% → 4%
Q2 1:40
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
96.4%
Zachary Block punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jeff Badet at the Okla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:2297% → 97%
TULNDrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · -4 yds · 0:314% → 4%
TULNDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 1:524% → 4%
Q3 14:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
96.1%
Johnathan Brantley run for 12 yds to the Tulan 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-8
96.1%
Johnathan Brantley sacked by Kenneth Mann for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulan 41 Johnathan Brantley fumbled, recovered by Tulan Dontrell Hilliard , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 33 yds · 2:3996% → 96%
Q3 12:30
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+12
96.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Abdul Adams for 12 yds to the Okla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
96.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Marquise Brown for 10 yds to the Tulan 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
96.0%
Austin Seibert punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulan 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:534% → 4%
Q3 8:38
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+3
95.8%
Johnathan Brantley pass complete to Sherman Badie for 3 yds to the Tulan 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15TD6 plays · 70 yds · 2:0396% → 99%
Q3 6:56
2ND & 14
OPP 25
+12
96.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 12 yds to the Tulan 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:221% → 1%
Q3 4:30
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-7
98.8%
Johnathan Brantley sacked by Ogbonnia Okoronkwo for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulan 19 Johnathan Brantley fumbled, recovered by Tulan Junior Diaz , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17DOWNS3 plays · 6 yds · 0:5199% → 99%
TULNDrive 18PUNT3 plays · -10 yds · 0:451% → 1%
OUDrive 19TD6 plays · 69 yds · 2:0599% → 100%
Q3 0:10
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+25
99.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Marquise Brown for 25 yds to the Tulan 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
99.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Marquise Brown for 11 yds to the Tulan 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jordan Smallwood for 11 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20FUMBLE4 plays · 16 yds · 0:530% → 0%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.9%
Darius Bradwell run for 1 yd to the Tulan 41 Darius Bradwell fumbled, recovered by Okla Kenneth MurraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21TD6 plays · 41 yds · 1:36100% → 100%
TULNDrive 22PUNT11 plays · 30 yds · 4:560% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 23TD5 plays · 98 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
Q4 3:17
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+10
100.0%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Sam Iheke for 10 yds to the Okla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-7
100.0%
Rodney Anderson run for 3 yds to the Okla 23 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Okla 13Similar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 17
OWN 13
+87
100.0%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 87 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 2:120% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 25FUMBLE1 play · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
100.0%
Joe Castiglione Jr. run for 1 yd to the Okla 32 Joe Castiglione Jr. fumbled, recovered by Tulan De'Andre WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:58
Marcelias Sutton run for 9 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
+2.3
TD · Q2 2:34
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Abdul Adams for 20 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
+1.7
TD · Q2 9:50
Johnathan Brantley pass intercepted for a TD Parnell Motley return for 77 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
+1.6