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BAY

Baylor 20 at Duke 34

DUKE
2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Dru Dixon run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Pregame prior+16.3Home team on offense+4.2Garbage-time factor−0.6Score differential+1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:12: Shaun Wilson run for 65 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK) — DUKE win probability +6.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:30: Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 73 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +8.8 pts (now 21%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:05: Chris Platt 79 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Connor Martin PAT failed) — BAY win probability +12.6 pts (now 27%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:31: Zach Smith pass intercepted for a TD Ben Humphreys return for 22 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK) — DUKE win probability +17.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 4:57: Austin Parker 26 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +4.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 9 of 13BAY made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:32BAY 4th & 17 at BAY 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:19DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:40BAY 4th & 7 at DUKE 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    25.7%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:32DUKE 4th & 12 at DUKE 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:15BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:21BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:56DUKE 4th & 10 at BAY 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:45BAY 4th & 12 at BAY 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−1.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:33DUKE 4th & 3 at BAY 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    76.0%−1.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:41DUKE 4th & 7 at BAY 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−3.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:41BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−1.0
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00BAY 4th & 1 at DUKE 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.9%−1.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:23DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:15BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 46, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%−2.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:26DUKE 4th & 5 at BAY 26, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    80.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−4.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:09DUKE 4th & 17 at BAY 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−2.5
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−6.2
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:22DUKE 4th & 16 at DUKE 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−2.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.9%−3.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 15:00DUKE 4th & 4 at BAY 40, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    72.9%−2.9
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%−2.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:29BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 12, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  21. Q4 9:54DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 20, up 11
    Close callPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%−0.5
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:57DUKE 4th & 8 at BAY 8, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−2.5
    average punt
  23. Q4 4:57BAY 4th & 15 at BAY 33, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:28BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 13:36DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:21DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:12DUKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:30BAY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:05BAY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    28.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:31DUKE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
80.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, personal foul (Taylor Young) to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
80.7%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 39 Shaun Wilson fumbled, recovered by Bayl Deonte WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2TD
3 plays · 39 yds · 0:1419% → 20%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
80.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Sam Tecklenburg) to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 14:42
1ST & 15
OPP 44
0
80.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+44
80.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 44 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 0:5281% → 80%
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
80.5%
Jones, D pass complete to Wilson, S for 1 yard to the DU36 (Johnston,Clay;Miller,Chris), PENALTY BU offside 5 yards to the DU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 5
OWN 40
+10
80.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
50
0
80.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Blake LynchSimilar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 10
50
+50
80.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 50 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
80.3%
Dru Dixon run for 17 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
80.3%
Dru Dixon run for 2 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-4
80.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 12
OWN 33
-5
80.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Mo Porter) to the Bayl 28Similar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 17
OWN 28
0
80.4%
Drew Galitz punt for 68 yds, downed at the Duke 4Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 17
OWN 28
0
80.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
79.7%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the Duke 8Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+5
79.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Duke 13Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 1
OWN 13
+1
79.7%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd to the Duke 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-4
79.8%
DUKE Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the Duke 10Similar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 14
OWN 10
+11
79.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 11 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+2
79.8%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 1
OWN 23
-1
79.7%
Brittain Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 22Similar
Q1 11:19
4TH & 2
OWN 22
0
79.6%
Austin Parker punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:4921% → 22%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
78.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for no gain to the Bayl 38Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+23
78.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Mims for 23 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
78.4%
John Lovett run for 2 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+1
78.4%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Duke 36Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
77.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Tony Nicholson, broken up by Jeremy McDuffieSimilar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
78.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
79.6%
Brittain Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 35Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+11
79.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Brittain Brown for 11 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
79.7%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-7
79.9%
Daniel Jones sacked by Clay Johnston for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 17
OWN 41
+10
79.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 10 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-5
79.8%
Daniel Jones sacked by Eric Ogor for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 6:32
4TH & 12
OWN 46
+40
79.2%
Austin Parker punt for 30 yds, downed at the DUKE 24 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Bayl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
77.8%
Blake Lynch run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 13Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+2
77.8%
Dru Dixon run for 2 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
78.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Mark GilbertSimilar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 9
OWN 15
0
78.3%
Drew Galitz punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Shaun Wilson at the Duke 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 2:3378% → 82%
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
78.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 2
50
+4
78.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
78.6%
Daniel Jones sacked by Brian Nance for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line Daniel Jones fumbled, recovered by Duke Gabe Brandner , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 14
50
+5
77.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+3
78.6%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+8
78.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 8 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
81.9%
Brittain Brown run for 34 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
81.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Mark GilbertSimilar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
81.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Tony Nicholson, broken up by Jeremy McDuffieSimilar
Q2 14:21
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.7%
Drew Galitz punt for 44 yds , Shaun Wilson returns for 2 yds to the Duke 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
81.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Scott Bracey for 3 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
81.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel HelmSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
81.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel Helm, broken up by Eric OgorSimilar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
81.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Rajah PreciadoSimilar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
80.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Davis KoppenhaverSimilar
Q2 13:56
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
80.5%
Austin Parker punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
81.2%
Chris Platt run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 14Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+19
81.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 19 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
80.9%
Dru Dixon run for 3 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
80.7%
Dru Dixon run for no gain to the Bayl 36Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
81.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 7
OWN 36
-5
81.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 12
OWN 31
0
81.7%
Drew Galitz punt for 46 yds, downed at the Duke 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
80.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 4 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+21
80.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 21 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
81.7%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
81.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 7 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
81.5%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
81.0%
Daniel Jones punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
81.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 2 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+10
81.7%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Joe Giles-Harris return for 10 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15MISSED FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3283% → 82%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
83.0%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 13Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+1
83.0%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 12Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 5
OPP 12
-2
82.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 14Similar
Q2 5:41
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+33
81.7%
Austin Parker 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
81.8%
John Lovett run for no gain to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
81.9%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
82.4%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:41
4TH & 10
OWN 20
-9
82.7%
Drew Galitz punt for 49 yds , Shaun Wilson returns for a loss of 9 yards to the Duke 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17INT
14 plays · 61 yds · 4:2082% → 81%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
81.5%
Daniel Jones run for 7 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+8
82.0%
Brittain Brown run for 8 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
82.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Chambers for 7 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+4
82.6%
Brittain Brown run for 4 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
82.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 10 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
82.8%
Jones, D pass incomplete to Young, A, PENALTY BU pass interference (Houston,Jameson) 15 yards to the BU27, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
83.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Brittain Brown for 14 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
83.1%
Brittain Brown run for 6 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+4
83.1%
Brittain Brown run for 4 yds to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
83.2%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd to the Bayl 2Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
83.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Brittain BrownSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-15
82.3%
Jones, D rush for 2 yards to the BU0, clock 00:25, PENALTY DU personal foul 15 yards to the BU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
0
81.4%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted, touchback. Henry Black return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18END OF HALF
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
81.5%
Zach Smith run for 17 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
80.8%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
81.1%
Dru Dixon run for 4 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0021% → 22%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.4%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
79.2%
John Lovett run for 15 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
78.4%
John Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+5
79.0%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+6
78.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 6 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-2
78.4%
Dru Dixon run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 2:4882% → 89%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-15
81.8%
DUKE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Mark Gilbert) to the Duke 35Similar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 25
OWN 35
+65
88.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 65 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4212% → 21%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.9%
Dru Dixon run for 2 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+73
79.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 73 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
80.2%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+2
80.2%
Brittain Brown run for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
79.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Quay ChambersSimilar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
78.6%
Austin Parker punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
78.5%
Zach Smith run for 9 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
76.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Tony Nicholson, broken up by Jordan HayesSimilar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
77.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Chris Platt, broken up by Jeremy McDuffieSimilar
Q3 10:15
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
78.5%
Drew Galitz punt for 40 yds, downed at the Duke 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 4:1781% → 84%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
81.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 6 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+9
81.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 9 yds to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+40
81.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Brittain Brown for 40 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
83.7%
Brittain Brown run for 4 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
83.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Jameson HoustonSimilar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+1
82.9%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd to the Bayl 26Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+6
81.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Brittain Brown for 6 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
83.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
83.7%
Brittain Brown run for 2 yds to the Bayl 18Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 8
OPP 18
-9
82.9%
Daniel Jones sacked by Ira Lewis for a loss of 9 yards to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 5:09
4TH & 17
OPP 27
+45
84.1%
Austin Parker 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.4%
Dru Dixon run for no gain to the Bayl 25Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+27
84.6%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Jeremy McDuffie return for 17 yds to the Duke 42 DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding (Bryon Fields Jr.) to the Duke 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:0086% → 87%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+6
85.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 6 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
86.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Joe Giles-HarrisSimilar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+9
85.6%
Daniel Jones run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
50
+8
86.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 8 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 2
OPP 42
-1
87.0%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 3
OPP 43
-13
86.4%
Daniel Jones sacked by Brian Nance for a loss of 13 yards to the Duke 44Similar
Q3 4:22
4TH & 16
OWN 44
0
84.2%
Austin Parker punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
86.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 14 yds to the DUKE 46 DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding (Johnathan Lloyd) to the Duke 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 27TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:4814% → 27%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
85.6%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Bayl 21Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+79
73.0%
Chris Platt 79 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Connor Martin PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 28PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
76.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
76.4%
Brittain Brown run for 9 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
77.2%
Quentin Harris run for no gain to the Duke 48Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+6
76.1%
Brittain Brown run for 6 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
78.6%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd to the Bayl 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
78.4%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+5
77.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 5 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
76.1%
Austin Parker punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 29INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1328% → 10%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
72.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Mark GilbertSimilar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+22
89.6%
Zach Smith pass intercepted for a TD Ben Humphreys return for 22 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0011% → 9%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-4
89.5%
John Lovett run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 7Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 14
OWN 7
+5
89.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 5 yds to the Bayl 12Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 9
OWN 12
0
90.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q4 11:29
4TH & 9
OWN 12
-5
90.6%
Drew Galitz punt for 70 yds , Shaun Wilson returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
91.3%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+5
91.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 5 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+2
91.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 2 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q4 9:54
4TH & 3
OWN 20
0
90.2%
Austin Parker punt for 46 yds, downed at the Bayl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 32FUMBLE
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
90.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
91.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to John LovettSimilar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 10
OWN 34
-8
92.1%
Zach Smith sacked by Michael Carter II for a loss of 8 yards to the Bayl 26 Zach Smith fumbled, recovered by Duke Drew Jordan , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 33FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 3:1893% → 97%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
92.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 6 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+12
92.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 12 yds to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
92.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 4Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
92.4%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 5Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
92.2%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 8Similar
Q4 4:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
96.6%
Austin Parker 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 34DOWNS
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
94.7%
Zach Smith sacked by Mike Ramsay for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 18Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+15
94.7%
Zach Smith run for 15 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
94.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 5 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-9
94.0%
Zach Smith sacked by Trevon McSwain for a loss of 9 yards to the Bayl 25 Zach Smith fumbled, recovered by Bayl Blake Blackmar , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 23
OWN 25
+11
94.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 11 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 12
OWN 36
-3
94.8%
Zach Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 33 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 4:57
4TH & 15
OWN 33
0
94.9%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 35END OF GAME
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:1098% → 99%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
97.6%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 35Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+8
98.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 8 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+5
98.2%
Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 24Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 12
OPP 24
-2
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:31
Zach Smith pass intercepted for a TD Ben Humphreys return for 22 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)
+17.4
TD · Q3 0:05
Chris Platt 79 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Connor Martin PAT failed)
-12.6
TD · Q3 11:30
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 73 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)
-8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com