2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreECU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:21 · Hussein Howe run for 11 yds to the ECaro 23 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 6:08: Jake Verity 23 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +1.6 pts (now 8%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q1 3:50: Will Grier pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 7 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK) — WVU win probability +0.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:04: Kennedy McKoy run for 13 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK) — WVU win probability +2.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:31: Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 52 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK) — WVU win probability +0.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:31: Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 9 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK) — WVU win probability +2.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ECU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 12:38ECU 4th & 3 at WVU 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.8%53% to convertField goal6.7%−0.147% to makePunt6.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:08ECU 4th & 7 at WVU 7, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.8% before the snapGo for it7.8%−<0.128% to convertField goalTheir call7.8%91% to makePunt7.3%−0.5average punt
- Q1 3:50ECU 4th & 14 at ECU 21, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snapGo for it7.6%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.8%average punt
- Q2 13:58ECU 4th & 16 at ECU 49, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snapGo for it5.4%−0.716% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.1%average punt
- Q2 9:31ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 32, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snapGo for it3.4%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.4%average punt
- Q2 6:12WVU 4th & 10 at ECU 27, up 32Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snapGo for it98.1%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call98.2%62% to makePunt97.8%−0.3average punt
- Q2 6:12ECU 4th & 10 at WVU 37, down 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.6%30% to convertField goal1.6%−<0.140% to makePunt1.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 12:08ECU 4th & 8 at WVU 28, down 46Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call0.5%60% to makePunt0.2%−0.3average punt
- Q3 11:59WVU 4th & 10 at WVU 41, up 43Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.5%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q3 6:02ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 39, down 43Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 0:57WVU 4th & 10 at ECU 28, up 43Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%60% to makePunt99.5%−0.3average punt
- Q4 13:27ECU 4th & 4 at WVU 31, down 43Close callKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%48% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%−<0.154% to makePunt0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 13:27WVU 4th & 10 at WVU 43, up 43Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 10:07WVU 4th & 7 at WVU 36, up 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 7:48ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 30, down 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:41WVU 4th & 1 at ECU 47, up 36Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 6:41WVU 4th & 10 at ECU 43, up 36Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%30% to convertField goal99.8%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8ECU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 12:44WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.3%97% to makeGo for two93.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:50WVU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.2%97% to makeGo for two92.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:04WVU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.1%97% to makeGo for two94.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:31WVU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.4%97% to makeGo for two96.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:31WVU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:35WVU Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:30WVU Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:55ECU Touchdown, down 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.4%97% to makeGo for two0.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:07WVU Touchdown, up 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:13ECU Touchdown, down 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:1694% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
94.1%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 9 yds to the WVirg 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+10
94.1%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 10 yds to the ECaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+21
94.1%
Will Grier pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for 21 yds to the ECaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2FG18 plays · 70 yds · 6:306% → 8%
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
93.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 5 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 5
OWN 28
-10
93.7%
DYE, Tyshon rush for 4 yards to the ECU32 (Tonkery, Dylan), NO PLAY, PENALTY ECU holding (LEE, Austin) 10 yards to the ECU18.Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 15
OWN 18
0
93.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Jimmy Williams, broken up by Toyous AverySimilar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 15
OWN 18
+27
93.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 27 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
93.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Quay Johnson for 8 yds to the WVirg 47Similar
Q1 12:38
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+5
93.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 5 yds to the WVirg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
93.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 4 yds to the WVirg 25Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+15
93.7%
SIRK, Thomas pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Jimmy, NO PLAY, PENALTY WVU pass interference (Avery, Toyous) 15 yards to the WVU8, 1ST DOWN ECU.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3TD10 plays · 71 yds · 2:1392% → 93%
Q1 6:03
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+13
92.0%
Will Grier pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 13 yds to the WVirg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
92.3%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 6 yds to the WVirg 49Similar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+38
92.4%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 38 yds to the ECaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
93.2%
Will Grier pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 7 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
WVUDrive 5TD3 plays · 53 yds · 0:4593% → 95%
Q1 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+40
92.8%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 40 yds to the ECaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6PUNT10 plays · 14 yds · 2:066% → 5%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
94.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 10 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+11
94.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 11 yds to the WVirg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-14
94.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Quay Johnson for 1 yd to the ECaro 44 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the ECaro 41Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 18
OWN 47
+2
94.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 2 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 16
OWN 49
0
94.6%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Quay Johnson, broken up by Kyzir WhiteSimilar
Q2 13:58
4TH & 16
OWN 49
0
94.6%
Austin Barnes punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Marcus Simms at the WVirg 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 7TD6 plays · 81 yds · 1:5995% → 96%
Q2 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+12
94.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Martell Pettaway for 12 yds to the WVirg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+6
95.0%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 6 yds to the WVirg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
95.8%
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 52 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
93.7%
Thomas Sirk pass intercepted Kyzir White return for 1 yd to the ECaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9TD3 plays · 31 yds · 0:5096% → 98%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+17
95.9%
Will Grier run for 2 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Tyree Owens) to the ECaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
98.0%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 9 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
WVUDrive 11MISSED FG10 plays · 34 yds · 2:0898% → 99%
Q2 8:20
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+10
97.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+19
97.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 19 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
97.9%
Will Grier pass incomplete to David Sills V, broken up by Corey SeargentSimilar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
97.9%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Ka'Raun White, broken up by Jordan WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12DOWNS6 plays · 36 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+36
99.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 36 yds to the WVirg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 13TD4 plays · 63 yds · 0:5199% → 99%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
98.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 2 yds to the WVirg 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14INT9 plays · 49 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 4:29
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
99.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Deondre Farrier, broken up by Dravon Askew-HenrySimilar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+6
99.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 6 yds to the WVirg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
99.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Quay Johnson for 18 yds to the WVirg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.3%
Thomas Sirk pass intercepted Kyzir White return for no gain to the WVirg 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 15TD2 plays · 86 yds · 0:24100% → 100%
ECUDrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17FG10 plays · 45 yds · 2:441% → 1%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
99.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 7 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+17
99.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 17 yds to the WVirg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
99.4%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Jimmy Williams, broken up by Mike Daniels Jr.Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
99.4%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Jimmy Williams, broken up by Mike Daniels Jr. EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 11:59
3RD & 2
OWN 49
-9
99.6%
Kennedy McKoy run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the WVirg 40Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+1
99.6%
Will Grier run for 1 yd to the WVirg 41 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
99.6%
Billy Kinney punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tim Irvin at the ECaro 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19TD8 plays · 79 yds · 2:520% → 0%
WVUDrive 20TD8 plays · 44 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
99.7%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Tyree Owens) to the ECaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+19
99.7%
Will Grier pass complete to Elijah Wellman for 19 yds to the ECaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.7%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for no gain to the ECaro 4Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 4 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 6:02
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+3
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 3 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+7
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 7 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Jimmy Williams EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Trevon Brown, broken up by Kenny RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22MISSED FG11 plays · 41 yds · 3:21100% → 100%
Q3 4:18
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+7
99.8%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Dominique Maiden for 7 yds to the WVirg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
99.8%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 3 yds to the WVirg 44Similar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
99.8%
Chris Chugunov sacked by Kiante Anderson for a loss of 5 yards to the WVirg 46Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+26
99.8%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Ricky Rogers for 26 yds to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
99.8%
Chris Chugunov pass incomplete to Dominique Maiden, broken up by Colby GoreSimilar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
99.8%
Chris Chugunov pass incomplete to Dominique Maiden, broken up by Colby GoreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23MISSED FG8 plays · 41 yds · 2:300% → 0%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Tyshon Dye for 11 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 8 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+15
99.9%
Tyshon Dye run for no gain to the WVirg 48 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Quondarius Qualls) to the WVirg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Tyshon Dye for 7 yds to the WVirg 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Quay Johnson, broken up by Toyous AverySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
ECUDrive 25TD2 plays · 98 yds · 0:420% → 0%
WVUDrive 26PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
100.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Hussein Howe for 6 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-3
99.9%
Gardner Minshew run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 30 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 7:48
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Austin Barnes punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tevin Bush at the WVirg 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 28PUNT10 plays · 26 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
99.9%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Druw Bowen for 9 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 1
OPP 34
-12
99.9%
Tevin Bush run for 3 yds to the ECaro 31 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal participation (Reggie Roberson Jr.) to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 6:41
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Billy Kinney punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 29END OF GAME3 plays · 13 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:31
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 9 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)
+2.1
TD · Q1 1:04
Kennedy McKoy run for 13 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)
+2
FG · Q1 6:08
Jake Verity 23 yd FG GOOD
-1.6