2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreCLT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:07 · Arthur Hart punt for 56 yds , Isaiah Harris returns for 8 yds to the KanSt 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:22: Winston Dimel run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — CLT win probability +0.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:58: Hasaan Klugh pass intercepted for a TD Kendall Adams return for 30 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:17: Hasaan Klugh run for 19 yds for a TD, (Nigel Macauley KICK) — CLT win probability +0.8 pts (now 3%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- FUMBLE · Q2 4:18: Hasaan Klugh run for a loss of 7 yards Hasaan Klugh fumbled, recovered by KanSt Kendall Adams , return for 46 yds, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +1.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:07: Alex Barnes run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CLT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 9:17CLT 4th & 6 at CLT 22, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it3.1%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%average punt
- Q2 8:13KSU 4th & 5 at CLT 5, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.9% before the snapGo for it95.8%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call95.8%92% to makePunt94.4%−1.3average punt
- Q2 2:41CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 34, down 24Close callPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%−0.2average punt
- Q3 15:00CLT 4th & 7 at CLT 43, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 11:13CLT 4th & 3 at CLT 44, down 38Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 8:43KSU 4th & 5 at CLT 49, up 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q3 6:43CLT 4th & 6 at CLT 24, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 0:39KSU 4th & 6 at CLT 7, up 38Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%91% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 15:00CLT 4th & 14 at CLT 21, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 14:36KSU 4th & 13 at CLT 47, up 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.121% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 8:07CLT 4th & 6 at CLT 37, down 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 5:05KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 24, up 48Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 3:09CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 33, down 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CLT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:22KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.9%97% to makeGo for two96.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:21KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:58KSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:17CLT Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.3%97% to makeGo for two3.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:07KSU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:13KSU Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:12KSU Touchdown, up 47 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKSUDrive 1TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:3898% → 98%
CLTDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3TD4 plays · 70 yds · 1:5297% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4INT TD6 plays · 14 yds · 1:193% → 2%
CLTDrive 5TD4 plays · 19 yds · 1:312% → 3%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
97.9%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Trent Bostick for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6FG20 plays · 87 yds · 8:5897% → 97%
Q1 2:11
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+3
97.3%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 3 yds to the KanSt 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+8
97.1%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 8 yds to the KanSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+13
97.1%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Harris for 13 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+10
97.3%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 10 yds to the Charl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
97.3%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 12 yds to the Charl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
97.3%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 6 yds to the Charl 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 20
0
97.3%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Isaiah Harris, broken up by Juwan FoggieSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+11
97.2%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 11 yds to the Charl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
97.3%
Dimel, Winston rush for 3 yards to the CHA6 (DUNCAN, Zach), PENALTY KS holding (Beecham, Abdul) 10 yards to the CHA19, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7FUMBLE TD10 plays · 25 yds · 3:513% → 2%
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
97.1%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Benny LeMay for 10 yds to the Charl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
96.9%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Trent Bostick, broken up by AJ ParkerSimilar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+8
97.0%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Nate Mullen for 8 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-2
96.9%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Robert Washington for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 42Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+46
98.1%
Hasaan Klugh run for a loss of 7 yards Hasaan Klugh fumbled, recovered by KanSt Kendall Adams , return for 46 yds, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 1:372% → 2%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.2%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Mark Quattlebaum for 5 yds to the Charl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9TD13 plays · 62 yds · 2:2799% → 100%
Q2 2:34
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+13
98.7%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 13 yds to the Charl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+11
98.7%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 11 yds to the Charl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+15
98.9%
Ertz, Jesse pass incomplete to Schoen, Dalton, PENALTY CHA DPI (COVINGTON, A.) 15 yards to the CHA10, 1ST DOWN KS, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10END OF HALF2 plays · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 1%
KSUDrive 12TD7 plays · 73 yds · 2:49100% → 100%
CLTDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 0:000% → 0%
KSUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
99.8%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 14 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 6:43
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+12
99.9%
Arthur Hart punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Charl 46 , D.J. Reed returns for 12 yds to the Charl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16FG11 plays · 39 yds · 4:57100% → 100%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
99.9%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Denzel Irvin for a loss of 5 yards to the Charl 41Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+15
99.8%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 15 yds to the Charl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
99.9%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Harris for 7 yds to the Charl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 17PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 0:390% → 0%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Mark Quattlebaum, broken up by Brogan BarrySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Trent Bostick, broken up by AJ ParkerSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+11
99.9%
Arthur Hart punt for 47 yds , Dominique Heath returns for 11 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:36
4TH & 13
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Nick Walsh punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Nate Mullen at the Charl 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19INT5 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:42
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Brooks Barden pass intercepted Cre Moore return for no gain to the Charl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20TD3 plays · 31 yds · 1:26100% → 100%
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
99.9%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Carlos Strickland II for 11 yds to the Charl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21PUNT9 plays · 26 yds · 0:000% → 0%
KSUDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:05
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Mitch Lochbihler punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Nate Mullen at the Charl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:09
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+5
100.0%
Brooks Barden pass complete to Uriah LeMay for 5 yds to the Charl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q2 4:18
Hasaan Klugh run for a loss of 7 yards Hasaan Klugh fumbled, recovered by KanSt Kendall Adams , return for 46 yds, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
+1.2
TD · Q1 2:17
Hasaan Klugh run for 19 yds for a TD, (Nigel Macauley KICK)
-0.8
TD · Q2 0:07
Alex Barnes run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
+0.7