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IOWA

Iowa 44 at Iowa State 41

ISU
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+1.1ISU 53.9%Garrett Owens 24 Yd Field GoalAWAY 7 - HOME 10 · Q2 11:05
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:05 · Garrett Owens 24 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remainingDefense timeouts
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 54Home team on offense+2.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Time remaining−0.1Defense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:52: Jacob Park pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 30 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ISU win probability +22.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 6:25: Ihmir Smith-Marsette 15 Yd pass from Nathan Stanley (Miguel Recinos Kick) — IOWA win probability +31.6 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 4:36: Hakeem Butler 74 Yd pass from Jacob Park (Garrett Owens Kick) — ISU win probability +33.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:09: Nathan Stanley pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 46 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +49.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Ihmir Smith-Marsette 5 Yd pass from Nathan Stanley — IOWA win probability +53.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8IOWA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 13:07ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:53IOWA 4th & 15 at IOWA 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:23ISU 4th & 20 at ISU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−1.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:57IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:36ISU 4th & 3 at IOWA 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    47.0%−0.9
    27% to make
    Punt
    47.4%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:05ISU 4th & 6 at IOWA 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    45.3%−3.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:21IOWA 4th & 11 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:56ISU 4th & 9 at IOWA 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:21IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:26ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:30IOWA 4th & 21 at IOWA 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−7.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:52ISU 4th & 1 at IOWA 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    37.0%−4.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−6.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:54IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:16IOWA 4th & 5 at ISU 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−17.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:32IOWA 4th & 12 at IOWA 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:01ISU 4th & 7 at ISU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5IOWA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:03ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:23IOWA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:52IOWA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:21IOWA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:37ISU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:52ISU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:46ISU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:25IOWA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−1.0
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:36ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−1.7
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:09IOWA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.6%−3.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:3848% → 49%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
48.4%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the IowSt 22Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+8
48.5%
Jacob Park pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 8 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
48.6%
Jacob Park pass complete to Allen Lazard for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 29Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+10
48.7%
Jacob Park pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 10 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
48.8%
Jacob Park pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+4
48.7%
Colin Downing punt for 41 yds , Joshua Jackson returns for 4 yds to the Iowa 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:0251% → 51%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
48.8%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 21Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 13
OWN 21
0
48.9%
Akrum Wadley run for no gain to the Iowa 21Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 13
OWN 21
-5
49.0%
IOWA Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 16Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 18
OWN 16
+3
49.2%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the Iowa 19Similar
Q1 10:53
4TH & 15
OWN 19
0
49.5%
Colten Rastetter punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 1:3750% → 53%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+25
49.5%
Jacob Park pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 25 yds to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
50.1%
Jacob Park pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 20 yds to the Iowa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
50.1%
David Montgomery run for 5 yds to the Iowa 10Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+5
50.3%
IOWA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Iowa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
52.6%
Allen Lazard 5 Yd pass from Jacob Park (Garrett Owens Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 4:1048% → 52%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
52.0%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 9 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+2
51.8%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
52.5%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+10
52.4%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 10 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
52.4%
Nathan Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+20
52.8%
Akrum Wadley run for 20 yds to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
52.0%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 12 yds to the IowSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
52.2%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the IowSt 17Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+7
52.5%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette run for 7 yds to the IowSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
48.5%
Nick Easley 10 Yd pass from Nathan Stanley (Miguel Recinos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:5550% → 49%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.3%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
50.2%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
49.7%
Jacob Park sacked by Anthony Nelson and A.J. Epenesa for a loss of 10 yards to the IowSt 15Similar
Q1 3:23
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
49.4%
Colin Downing punt for 46 yds, downed at the Iowa 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:1451% → 50%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
49.5%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-1
48.8%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 41Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+7
49.6%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 7 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 1
OWN 48
-5
49.6%
IOWA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 43Similar
Q1 0:57
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
50.3%
Colten Rastetter punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Allen Lazard at the IowSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7FG
16 plays · 80 yds · 4:3251% → 54%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
51.0%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the IowSt 17Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 7
OWN 17
0
51.1%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q1 0:11
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+13
50.5%
Jacob Park pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 13 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
51.4%
Jacob Park pass complete to Trever Ryen for 19 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
52.8%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 9
50
0
52.9%
Jacob Park pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 9
50
+6
51.9%
Jacob Park pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 6 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+5
52.0%
Jacob Park pass complete to Allen Lazard for 5 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
53.5%
Jacob Park pass complete to David Montgomery for 8 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+15
54.1%
IOWA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Manny Rugamba) to the Iowa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
54.1%
Mike Warren run for 11 yds to the Iowa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
54.2%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the Iowa 4Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
54.4%
Jacob Park run for 3 yds to the Iowa 1Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.8%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q2 11:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
52.8%
IOWA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 6Similar
Q2 11:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
53.9%
Garrett Owens 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 3:1246% → 44%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
53.7%
Nathan Stanley sacked by J.D. Waggoner for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 28Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+1
53.9%
Akrum Wadley run for 1 yd to the Iowa 29Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+11
55.3%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 11 yds to the Iowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
53.4%
James Butler run for 11 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
52.5%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the IowSt 48Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 9
OPP 48
-2
53.1%
James Butler run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 11
50
0
54.7%
Nathan Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:21
4TH & 11
50
0
56.2%
Colten Rastetter punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 1:1956% → 55%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
56.3%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Marchie MurdockSimilar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+36
56.2%
David Montgomery run for 36 yds to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
58.9%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
58.7%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the Iowa 48Similar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
56.9%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
55.2%
Colin Downing punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Joshua Jackson at the Iowa 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10TD
11 plays · 91 yds · 4:3844% → 60%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
56.1%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Drake Kulick for 3 yds to the Iowa 12Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+6
56.3%
Akrum Wadley run for 6 yds to the Iowa 18Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+4
56.8%
Akrum Wadley run for 4 yds to the Iowa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
56.1%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Noah FantSimilar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+35
56.5%
Akrum Wadley run for 35 yds to the IowSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
53.3%
IOWA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Iowa 47Similar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+26
54.9%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to James Butler for 26 yds to the IowSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
51.8%
Nathan Stanley run for 3 yds to the IowSt 24Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+2
51.1%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the IowSt 22Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+5
52.6%
Akrum Wadley run for 5 yds to the IowSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
39.8%
Matt VandeBerg 17 Yd pass from Nathan Stanley (Miguel Recinos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
45.6%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1456% → 54%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
44.0%
Akrum Wadley run for no gain to the Iowa 23Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
44.1%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+4
45.2%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 4 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
46.0%
Colten Rastetter punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Trever Ryen at the IowSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4246% → 44%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
46.1%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
47.5%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
45.1%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
43.6%
Colin Downing punt for 49 yds , Joshua Jackson returns for no gain to the Iowa 12 IOWA Penalty, Offensive Holding (6 Yards) to the Iowa 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14TD
11 plays · 94 yds · 4:4955% → 77%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
44.7%
James Butler run for 8 yds to the Iowa 14Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 2
OWN 14
+8
43.9%
James Butler run for 8 yds to the Iowa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
43.6%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 9 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+6
42.0%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+26
42.4%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Drake Kulick for 26 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
40.4%
James Butler run for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 42Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 15
OPP 42
0
41.6%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 15
OPP 42
+24
42.8%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 24 yds to the IowSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
38.6%
Akrum Wadley run for no gain to the IowSt 18Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+17
38.9%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 17 yds T.J. Hockenson fumbled, forced by Marcel Spears Jr., recovered by Iowa for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.4%
Akrum Wadley 1 Yd Run (Miguel Recinos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:3927% → 46%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.8%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+23
26.6%
Jacob Park pass complete to David Montgomery for 23 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
29.0%
Jacob Park pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
28.4%
Jacob Park pass complete to David Montgomery for 6 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+11
28.7%
Jacob Park pass complete to David Montgomery for 11 yds to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
30.5%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+20
30.4%
Jacob Park pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 20 yds to the Iowa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
30.3%
IOWA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (11 Yards) to the Iowa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
30.2%
David Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 3Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
29.1%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q3 4:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
46.0%
Allen Lazard 3 Yd pass from Jacob Park (Garrett Owens Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 1:5362% → 60%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
38.4%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 22Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
38.9%
Akrum Wadley run for no gain to the Iowa 22Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-3
39.5%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Akrum Wadley for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 19Similar
Q3 2:41
4TH & 16
OWN 19
-5
40.6%
IOWA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 14Similar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
39.9%
Colten Rastetter punt for 44 yds , Trever Ryen returns for no gain to the IowSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 1:1743% → 64%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
42.8%
David Montgomery run for 9 yds to the Iowa 49Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+10
44.4%
Jacob Park pass complete to Allen Lazard for 10 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
44.4%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
46.4%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q3 0:57
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+5
43.9%
Jacob Park pass complete to David Montgomery for 5 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q3 0:52
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+30
63.9%
Jacob Park pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 30 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3538% → 36%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
61.6%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 4 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
Q3 0:03
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
60.4%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
62.5%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
64.4%
Colten Rastetter punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Trever Ryen at the IowSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:5167% → 86%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
66.9%
David Montgomery run for 13 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
69.9%
Jacob Park pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 9 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+2
70.9%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
71.3%
Jacob Park pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 19 yds to the Iowa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
72.4%
David Montgomery run for 6 yds to the Iowa 16Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 4
OPP 16
0
72.5%
Jacob Park pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+9
71.7%
Jacob Park pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 9 yds to the Iowa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
86.4%
David Montgomery 7 Yd Run (Garrett Owens Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20TD
13 plays · 92 yds · 5:0616% → 46%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+12
83.6%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 12 yds to the Iowa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
83.3%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the Iowa 23Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
85.7%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+10
86.4%
IOWA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
85.3%
Akrum Wadley run for 10 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
84.4%
Akrum Wadley run for 11 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
83.6%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Peter Pekar for 9 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+2
82.0%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
84.0%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-1
84.5%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 34Similar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+19
86.1%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 19 yds to the IowSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
54.5%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette 15 Yd pass from Nathan Stanley (Miguel Recinos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
72.3%
Jacob Park pass intercepted Parker Hesse return for 13 yds to the IowSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3445% → 56%
Q4 5:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
54.7%
Akrum Wadley run for no gain to the IowSt 5Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
54.7%
Nathan Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
57.1%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Noah FantSimilar
Q4 5:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
44.3%
Miguel Recinos 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 83 yds · 0:2855% → 89%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
55.2%
David Montgomery run for 9 yds to the IowSt 26Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+74
88.6%
Hakeem Butler 74 Yd pass from Jacob Park (Garrett Owens Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5917% → 13%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
82.7%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-2
83.7%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 33Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
86.6%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Noah FantSimilar
Q4 3:32
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
87.1%
Colten Rastetter punt for 42 yds, downed at the IowSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:2692% → 93%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.6%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the IowSt 25Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.8%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+1
92.9%
Jacob Park pass complete to Allen Lazard for 1 yd to the IowSt 28Similar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
93.0%
Colin Downing punt for 61 yds, downed at the Iowa 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 26TD
7 plays · 89 yds · 1:457% → 59%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+14
92.6%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 14 yds to the Iowa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.2%
Akrum Wadley run for 8 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
91.8%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
92.7%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 9 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
90.9%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+9
91.2%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 9 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
41.3%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 46 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5158% → 55%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
57.8%
Jacob Park pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
57.2%
Jacob Park pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+5
55.0%
David Montgomery run for 5 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 28FG
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0065% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
64.7%
Jacob Park pass complete to Chase Allen for 9 yds to the Iowa 16Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+1
64.7%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Iowa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
64.7%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+2
64.7%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Iowa 13Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
62.4%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+30
79.3%
Garrett Owens 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 29TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0029% → 88%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
70.9%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
72.9%
Akrum Wadley run for 6 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+10
76.4%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 10 yds to the IowSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
70.9%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the IowSt 5Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
11.8%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette 5 Yd pass from Nathan Stanley Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Ihmir Smith-Marsette 5 Yd pass from Nathan Stanley
-53.8
TD · Q4 1:09
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 46 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)
-49.9
TD · Q4 4:36
Hakeem Butler 74 Yd pass from Jacob Park (Garrett Owens Kick)
+33.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com