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UTSA

UTSA 17 at Baylor 10

BAY
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:32 · Victor Falcon 47 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Greg Roberts N/A return for no gain to the Bayl 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Pregame prior+23.1Home team on offense−0.9Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:27: Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 7 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK) — UTSA win probability +12.5 pts (now 39%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:35: Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 29 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK) — UTSA win probability +16.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 2:40: Connor Martin 20 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +8.9 pts (now 26%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:40: Dalton Sturm pass incomplete — UTSA win probability +9.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:38: Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 40 — UTSA win probability +10.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 9UTSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:20UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:32UTSA 4th & 14 at BAY 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    23.1%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:32BAY 4th & 19 at UTSA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−0.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UTSA 4th & 6 at BAY 23, tied
    Close callWent for it · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    25.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:37BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:35BAY 4th & 13 at BAY 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−3.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:05UTSA 4th & 17 at BAY 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−2.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    53.8%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:32BAY 4th & 1 at UTSA 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    43.9%−4.9
    58% to make
    Punt
    34.0%−14.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:32BAY 4th & 2 at UTSA 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    46.8%−2.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−14.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:12UTSA 4th & 3 at BAY 21, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.4%−0.7
    74% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−8.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:12BAY 4th & 14 at BAY 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−4.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:25UTSA 4th & 16 at UTSA 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−4.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:33UTSA 4th & 8 at UTSA 11, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−3.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:40BAY 4th & 1 at UTSA 3, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%
    63% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.0%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−6.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:24UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:08BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.6%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 8:33BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:27UTSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:35UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
77.5%
Anu Solomon run for 10 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
77.5%
Solomon,Anu pass incomplete to Holmes,Gavin (Levine), PENALTY BU pass interference (Holmes,Gavin) 15 yards to the BU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 20
-5
77.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 15Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 30
OWN 15
+12
77.5%
John Lovett run for 12 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 27
-1
77.5%
John Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 26
+16
77.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 16 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
77.5%
Drew Galitz punt for 35 yds, downed at the TexSA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
76.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 12 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
76.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 2 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
76.8%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+3
76.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 3 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q1 12:20
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
76.8%
Yannis Routsas punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3INT
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:0076% → 77%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
76.3%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Mo Porter) to the Bayl 5Similar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+8
76.3%
John Lovett run for 8 yds to the Bayl 13Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+9
76.3%
Anu Solomon run for 9 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
76.3%
Solomon,Anu pass incomplete to Mims,Denzel, PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Jupe) 7 yards to the BU29, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
76.4%
Solomon,Anu pass incomplete to Ebner,Trestan, PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Tauaefa) 15 yards to the BU44, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
76.7%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
76.5%
Anu Solomon pass intercepted Nate Gaines return for 2 yds to the TexSA 46 BAYLOR Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4MISSED FG
11 plays · 23 yds · 3:5725% → 26%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
75.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+3
75.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+5
74.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 5 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
74.7%
Dalton Sturm run for 17 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
74.4%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (Josh Stewart) to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+2
74.6%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 13
OPP 29
-1
74.7%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Xavier Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 14
OPP 30
0
75.2%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 14
OPP 30
+47
74.5%
Victor Falcon 47 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Greg Roberts N/A return for no gain to the Bayl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
74.7%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+31
74.7%
Tony Nicholson run for 31 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
75.6%
John Lovett run for 7 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 3
OPP 31
-5
75.8%
Anu Solomon run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 41 Anu Solomon fumbled, recovered by Bayl Anu Solomon , return for 3 yds to the TexSA 28 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding (-8 Yards) to the TexSA 41Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 13
OPP 41
-6
75.2%
Anu Solomon sacked by Marcus Davenport for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 47Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 19
OPP 47
0
74.7%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 19
OPP 47
0
74.3%
Drew Galitz punt for 40 yds, downed at the TexSA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6DOWNS
11 plays · 71 yds · 2:0127% → 28%
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
73.4%
Brett Winnegan run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 5Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+17
73.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 17 yds to the TexSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
73.2%
Tyrell Clay run for 7 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+2
71.9%
Tyrell Clay run for 2 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+4
72.2%
Dalton Sturm run for 4 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
72.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Dannon Cavil for 16 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+22
71.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 22 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
70.5%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Xavier Jones and Ira Lewis for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 31
-4
71.2%
Tyrell Clay run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 35
+12
72.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 12 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+1
71.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 1 yd to the Bayl 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
72.1%
Lovett,John rush for 7 yards to the BU29 (Davis,D), PENALTY BU holding (Wainright,Ish) 10 yards to the BU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 20
OWN 12
+18
72.1%
John Lovett run for 18 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 2
OWN 30
-2
73.0%
John Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 28Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
71.7%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to John Lovett, broken up by Marcus DavenportSimilar
Q2 10:37
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
71.0%
Drew Galitz punt for 51 yds , Matt Guidry returns for no gain to the TexSA 20 Matt Guidry fumbled, recovered by Bayl Ross MatiscikSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8TD
1 play · 20 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
78.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Denzel Mims for 20 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9TD
21 plays · 75 yds · 8:0623% → 39%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
76.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 21Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+9
77.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Dannon Cavil for 9 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
77.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 11 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
76.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for no gain to the TexSA 41Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
76.3%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+16
76.8%
Dalton Sturm run for 16 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
75.1%
Sturm pass incomplete, QB hurry by Williams,Deonte, PENALTY UTSA illegal shift (Perez-Isidoro) 5 yards to the BU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+3
76.0%
Dalton Sturm run for 3 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+11
75.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 11 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+3
74.8%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
74.3%
Tyrell Clay run for 2 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+7
74.0%
Tyrell Clay run for 7 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
74.8%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
74.0%
Clay rush for no gain to the BU20 (Young,Taylor;Lynch,Blake), PENALTY UTSA IF 5 yards to the BU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+17
74.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 17 yds to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
74.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the Bayl 7Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
73.6%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
61.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 7 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10END OF HALF
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:1368% → 68%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
67.9%
John Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 6Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 12
OWN 6
-1
67.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 1:2534% → 52%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
65.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 9 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+40
64.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 40 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
48.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 29 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 0:0054% → 52%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.5%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Chris Platt, broken up by Devron DavisSimilar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
53.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
52.2%
Anu Solomon run for 11 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
54.4%
John Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 34Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 12
OWN 34
-5
53.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Mo Porter) to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+4
53.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to John Lovett for 4 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
52.3%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q3 13:35
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
51.5%
Drew Galitz punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brady Jones at the TexSA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 5:3049% → 55%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
51.0%
Dalton Sturm run for 16 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
49.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 13 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
48.6%
Jalen Rhodes run for 15 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
48.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for no gain to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
48.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 6
OPP 25
-15
48.8%
Sturm pass complete to Williams,S for 7 yards to the BU18 (Hall,Davion), PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Jones,B) 15 yards to the BU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 21
OPP 40
+9
42.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 9 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q3 8:05
4TH & 12
OPP 31
-5
43.8%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 8:05
4TH & 17
OPP 36
0
45.1%
Yannis Routsas punt for 28 yds, downed at the Bayl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14DOWNS
13 plays · 68 yds · 2:3344% → 46%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
44.4%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Bayl 9Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+27
44.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Denzel Mims for 27 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+26
46.9%
Chris Platt run for 26 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
50.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Chris Platt for 8 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+1
52.2%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the TexSA 29Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 1
OPP 29
0
48.3%
John Lovett run for no gain to the TexSA 29Similar
Q3 4:32
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+2
46.1%
John Lovett run for 2 yds to the TexSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-7
50.2%
Anu Solomon sacked by Kevin Strong Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 34Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 17
OPP 34
+10
47.7%
John Lovett run for 10 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
48.1%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q3 4:32
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+5
45.2%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the TexSA 19Similar
Q3 4:32
4TH & 2
OPP 19
-5
45.8%
Anu Solomon sacked by Josiah Tauaefa and La'Kel Bass for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:5462% → 70%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
38.2%
Jalen Rhodes run for 9 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+24
36.6%
Jalen Rhodes run for 9 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Verkedric Vaughns) to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
34.5%
Jalen Rhodes run for 5 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 5
OPP 38
-5
34.2%
Sturm pass complete to Stewart for 16 yards to the BU22 (Lynch,Blake), PENALTY UTSA ineligible downfield on pass (Pratt) 5 yards to the BU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+15
34.7%
Sturm pass incomplete to Cavil, PENALTY BU pass interference (Hand,Harrison) 15 yards to the BU28, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
33.6%
Tyrell Clay run for 1 yd to the Bayl 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+6
31.0%
Tyrell Clay run for 6 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 21
0
31.6%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh Stewart, broken up by Blake LynchSimilar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+38
30.0%
Victor Falcon 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
27.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 20Similar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
26.8%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Bayl 21Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
26.6%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
25.5%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
24.7%
Drew Galitz punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0074% → 70%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
26.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the TexSA 45Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+4
26.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 4 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-11
26.6%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Eric Ogor for a loss of 11 yards to the TexSA 38Similar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 16
OWN 38
0
30.5%
Yannis Routsas punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
22.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to John Lovett for 2 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+17
22.2%
John Lovett run for 17 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+28
23.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Chris Platt for 28 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-4
26.5%
Anu Solomon run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 42Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 14
OPP 42
0
24.8%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Chris Platt, broken up by Javontavius MosleySimilar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 14
OPP 42
-19
23.8%
Anu Solomon sacked by Eric Banks for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 38 Anu Solomon fumbled, recovered by Bayl Mo Porter , return for 0 yards BAYLOR Penalty, personal foul (Blake Blackmar) to the Bayl 38Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 34
OWN 38
0
22.2%
Drew Galitz punt for 53 yds, downed at the TexSA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:3283% → 85%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
17.5%
Jalen Rhodes run for 6 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+2
17.4%
Tyrell Clay run for 2 yds to the TexSA 17Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 2
OWN 17
-8
14.4%
Sturm pass complete to Stewart for 7 yards to the UTSA24 (Lynch,Blake), PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Stewart) 8 yards to the UTSA9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+2
15.6%
Tyrell Clay run for 2 yds to the TexSA 11Similar
Q4 7:33
4TH & 8
OWN 11
+1
14.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 34 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 1 yd to the TexSA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:3316% → 26%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
16.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 7 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+15
16.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Denzel Mims for 15 yds to the TexSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
18.9%
Anu Solomon run for 8 yds to the TexSA 14Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 2
OPP 14
-2
18.9%
John Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 16Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+4
17.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to John Lovett for 4 yds to the TexSA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
18.9%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the TexSA 9Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
18.9%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+6
17.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Chris Platt for 6 yds to the TexSA 3Similar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+20
26.1%
Connor Martin 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:1688% → 85%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
12.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+1
12.6%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the TexSA 12Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+4
14.0%
Dalton Sturm run for 4 yds to the TexSA 16Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 5
OWN 16
0
15.4%
Yannis Routsas punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0018% → 16%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
18.1%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
18.1%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
16.7%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q4 2:08
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
15.5%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete, broken up by Josiah TauaefaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
4.8%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 11
OPP 40
-2
4.9%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 42Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 13
OPP 42
-1
5.3%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:35
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 29 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)
-16
TD · Q2 0:27
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 7 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)
-12.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:38
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 40
-10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com