Try the model
MD

Maryland 51 at Texas 41

TEX
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:33 · Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Garrett Gray, broken up by Darnell Savage Jr.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 85Pregame prior+22.5Home team on offense−12.8Score differential−6.8Garbage-time factor−4.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:38: Holton Hill 65 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Joshua Rowland Kick) — TEX win probability +14.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:20: Reggie Hemphill-Mapps 91 Yd Punt Return (Joshua Rowland Kick) — TEX win probability +16.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:29: Ty Johnson run for 40 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK) — MD win probability +19.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:23: Shane Buechele run for 3 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TEX win probability +25.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 7:36: Kasim Hill run for 3 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK) — MD win probability +19.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 11:36MD 4th & 1 at MD 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:10TEX 4th & 10 at MD 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:43TEX 4th & 20 at MD 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−1.5
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    73.8%−3.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:26TEX 4th & 9 at TEX 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:38MD 4th & 3 at TEX 13, up 20
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.1%−1.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−8.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:37MD 4th & 5 at TEX 8, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.8%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−8.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:33TEX 4th & 2 at MD 36, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    53.5%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    51.6%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:43TEX 4th & 5 at MD 5, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    43.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−10.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:48MD 4th & 5 at MD 10, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:20MD 4th & 3 at MD 47, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:30MD 4th & 12 at TEX 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−2.5
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−2.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:20TEX 4th & 2 at MD 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    49.3%−5.9
    27% to make
    Punt
    51.3%−3.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:10TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−1.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:14MD 4th & 11 at MD 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−2.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:39TEX 4th & 19 at TEX 24, down 10
    Numbers favored punt by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%−1.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MD made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:40TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:28MD Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:09MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:43MD Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:47MD Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    42.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 5:38TEX Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:20TEX Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    49.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:20TEX Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:29MD Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 1:23TEX Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 7:36MD Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−0.5
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 2:08MD Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 1:09TEX Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1INT TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0511% → 12%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
88.6%
Ty Johnson run for 2 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
88.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for no gain to the Mary 23Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+31
88.5%
Holton Hill 31 Yd Interception Return (Joshua Rowland Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4612% → 12%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
88.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for no gain to the Mary 34Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
88.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for no gain to the Mary 34Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+9
88.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 9 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
88.2%
Wade Lees punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3INT
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:5988% → 88%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-9
88.3%
Shane Buechele sacked by Jermaine Carter Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the Texas 1Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 19
OWN 1
+2
88.2%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the Texas 3Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 17
OWN 3
0
88.0%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted JC Jackson return for no gain to the Mary 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:5012% → 14%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
87.9%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 5 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+7
87.8%
Ty Johnson run for 7 yds to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
87.8%
Ty Johnson run for 6 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+8
87.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to D.J. Moore for 8 yds to the Texas 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
86.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 25 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5MISSED FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 4:0587% → 85%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
86.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 6 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-2
86.6%
Kyle Porter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 24Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+26
86.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
50
+6
86.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 6 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+6
86.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to John Burt for 6 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
86.5%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+10
86.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 10 yds to the Mary 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
86.4%
Buechele, Shane pass complete to Hemphill-Mapps, Reggie for 4 yards to the MARYLAND21, PENALTY TEXAS holding (Leonard, Dorian) 10 yards to the MARYLAND35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 20
OPP 35
0
86.1%
Lil'Jordan Humphrey pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 20
OPP 35
+12
86.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Chris Warren III for 12 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 8
OPP 23
-2
85.9%
Shane Buechele sacked by Jalen Brooks for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 25Similar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
85.3%
Joshua Rowland 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 0:4115% → 19%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+50
85.0%
Ty Johnson run for 50 yds to the Texas 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
83.9%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 4 yds to the Texas 20Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+20
81.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to D.J. Moore for 20 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7TD
16 plays · 51 yds · 6:0582% → 72%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-6
82.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for a loss of 6 yards to the Texas 16Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 16
OWN 16
+7
81.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 7 yds to the Texas 23Similar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+17
80.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 17 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
81.6%
Chris Warren III run for 5 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
81.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 2 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+7
81.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 7 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
81.2%
Shane Buechele run for 7 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+7
81.0%
Kyle Porter run for 7 yds to the Mary 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
81.1%
Shane Buechele run for no gain to the Mary 32Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+15
80.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 15 yds to the Mary 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
80.5%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the Mary 16Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+4
80.2%
Shane Buechele run for 4 yds to the Mary 12Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 5
OPP 12
-15
79.3%
Buechele, Shane pass complete to Heard, Jerrod for 7 yards to the MARYLAND5, PENALTY TEXAS pass interference (Hemphill-Mapps, Reggie) 15 yards to the MARYLAND27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 20
OPP 27
0
78.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 20
OPP 27
+71
71.6%
Antoine Brooks 71 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Adam Greene Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:5871% → 67%
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
70.9%
Chris Warren III run for 7 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+1
70.7%
Chris Warren III run for 1 yd to the Texas 27Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 2
OWN 27
-7
69.4%
Shane Buechele sacked by Jermaine Carter Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Texas 20Similar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 9
OWN 20
+16
66.6%
Michael Dickson punt for 64 yds , D.J. Moore returns for 16 yds to the Mary 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:3134% → 48%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
66.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 1 yd to the Mary 33Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+2
65.6%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 2 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+19
65.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 19 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
52.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 46 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10TD
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5749% → 37%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
51.3%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 6 yds to the Texas 14Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+3
49.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Lorenzo Harrison III for 3 yds to the Texas 11Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 1
OPP 11
-2
48.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 13Similar
Q2 5:38
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+65
63.4%
Holton Hill 65 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Joshua Rowland Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11FG
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:4437% → 51%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
63.4%
Ty Johnson run for 7 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
62.4%
Ty Johnson run for 7 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+27
60.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 27 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+21
59.3%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 7 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Face Mask (14 yards) (Jeffrey McCulloch) to the Texas 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
58.7%
Ty Johnson run for 2 yds to the Texas 11Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+3
57.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 3 yds to the Texas 8Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
56.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Jacquille VeiiSimilar
Q2 2:37
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+26
49.4%
Adam Greene 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12DOWNS
12 plays · 46 yds · 1:5055% → 52%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
54.6%
Shane Buechele run for 9 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+2
55.0%
Shane Buechele run for 2 yds to the Texas 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
53.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 15 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
55.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
54.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Garrett Gray for 8 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+4
55.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 4 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
55.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Garrett Gray for 5 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
54.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Dorian LeonardSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+3
53.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 3 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 2
OPP 36
0
52.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Garrett Gray, broken up by Darnell Savage Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
46.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 7 yds to the Mary 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14DOWNS
14 plays · 70 yds · 4:1050% → 44%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
49.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 10 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
50.1%
Kyle Porter run for 8 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
51.4%
Kyle Porter run for no gain to the Texas 43Similar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
50.7%
Shane Buechele run for 3 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
49.9%
Buechele, Shane pass incomplete to Duvernay, Devin, PENALTY TEXAS holding (Porter, Kyle) 10 yards to the TEXAS36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+12
46.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jerrod Heard for 12 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+9
48.0%
Shane Buechele run for 9 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+21
47.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 21 yds to the Mary 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
48.6%
Chris Warren III run for 15 yds to the Mary 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
48.2%
Chris Warren III run for 3 yds to the Mary 4Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
47.8%
Chris Warren III run for no gain to the Mary 4Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
45.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Garrett Gray for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 5Similar
Q3 10:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
44.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Chris Warren IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5563% → 65%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
37.3%
MARYLAND Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (JC Jackson) to the Mary 3Similar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 12
OWN 3
0
37.1%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for no gain to the Mary 3Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+2
36.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 2 yds to the Mary 5Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 10
OWN 5
+5
35.7%
Ty Johnson run for 5 yds to the Mary 10Similar
Q3 8:48
4TH & 5
OWN 10
0
35.2%
Wade Lees punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16TD
7 plays · 37 yds · 1:2241% → 49%
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
40.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+7
40.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 7 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+7
40.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 7 yds to the Mary 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
40.2%
Buechele, Shane pass complete to Burt, John for 23 yards to the MARYLAND0, PENALTY TEXAS holding (Nickelson, Tristan) 10 yards to the MARYLAND33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 20
OPP 33
0
39.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Lorenzo JoeSimilar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 20
OPP 33
0
37.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan HumphreySimilar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 20
OPP 33
+33
49.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 33 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17PUNT TD
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:4552% → 39%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
47.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to D.J. Moore for 15 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
45.2%
Ty Johnson run for no gain to the Mary 40Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
43.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+7
44.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 7 yds to the Mary 47Similar
Q3 5:20
4TH & 3
OWN 47
+91
60.9%
Reggie Hemphill-Mapps 91 Yd Punt Return (Joshua Rowland Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 0:4143% → 62%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
57.2%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (Terrance Davis) to the Texas 43Similar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+3
57.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 3 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+40
38.2%
Ty Johnson run for 40 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 2:5342% → 66%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
41.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 12 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
42.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Jerrod HeardSimilar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
41.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Chris Warren III for 7 yds to the Mary 47Similar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+4
42.7%
Jerrod Heard run for 4 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
42.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 13 yds to the Mary 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
43.8%
Shane Buechele run for 8 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 2
OPP 22
-2
43.2%
Shane Buechele sacked by Bryce Brand for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 24Similar
Q3 1:39
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+21
40.4%
Lil'Jordan Humphrey run for 21 yds to the Mary 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
66.1%
Shane Buechele run for 3 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20MISSED FG
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:4144% → 44%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+46
56.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to D.J. Moore for 46 yds to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
50.7%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 3 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 0:13
2ND & 7
OPP 27
-10
49.3%
Pigrome, Tyrrell rush for 4 yards to the TEXAS23, PENALTY MARYLAND holding (Moore, Brendan) 10 yards to the TEXAS37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 17
OPP 37
0
51.6%
Kasim Hill pass complete to D.J. Moore for no gain to the Texas 37Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 17
OPP 37
+5
53.1%
Kasim Hill run for 5 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 12
OPP 32
+50
55.8%
Adam Greene 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:0359% → 57%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
58.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 16 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
62.0%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 8
50
+6
60.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 6 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
60.3%
Shane Buechele run for no gain to the Mary 44Similar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 2
OPP 44
-4
57.4%
Shane Buechele sacked by Tyran Hunt for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 3:3655% → 85%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
45.4%
Kasim Hill pass complete to D.J. Moore for 4 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+10
41.7%
Kasim Hill run for 10 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
40.4%
Ty Johnson run for 1 yd to the Texas 37Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-5
39.2%
Hill, Kasim rush for 7 yards to the TEXAS30, PENALTY MARYLAND illegal motion 5 yards to the TEXAS42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 14
OPP 42
0
40.0%
Kasim Hill run for no gain to the Texas 42Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 14
OPP 42
-5
40.3%
MARYLAND Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Texas 47Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 19
OPP 47
+40
40.1%
Kasim Hill pass complete to D.J. Moore for 40 yds to the Texas 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
34.4%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 1 yd to the Texas 6 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Naashon Hughes) to the Texas 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
15.1%
Kasim Hill run for 3 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1918% → 15%
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
18.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Collin Johnson, broken up by Jermaine Carter Jr.Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
17.6%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Garrett GraySimilar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
16.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey, broken up by Josh WoodsSimilar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
15.3%
Michael Dickson punt for 52 yds, fair catch by D.J. Moore at the Mary 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:4885% → 87%
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
15.5%
Ty Johnson run for 5 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 5
OWN 32
-10
13.7%
Johnson, Ty rush for 3 yards to the MARYLAND35, PENALTY MARYLAND holding (Edwards, Avery) 10 yards to the MARYLAND22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 15
OWN 22
-4
13.9%
Kasim Hill sacked by Charles Omenihu for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 18Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 19
OWN 18
+8
13.7%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 8 yds to the Mary 26Similar
Q4 5:14
4TH & 11
OWN 26
0
12.8%
Wade Lees punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Reggie Hemphill-Mapps at the Texas 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · -9 yds · 1:2712% → 8%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
11.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Garrett Gray for 6 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 4
OWN 39
-10
13.0%
Buechele, Shane pass complete to Johnson, Collin for 14 yards to the MARYLAND47, PENALTY TEXAS holding (Williams, Connor) 10 yards to the TEXAS29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 14
OWN 29
0
10.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 14
OWN 29
0
9.6%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps, broken up by DJ TurnerSimilar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 14
OWN 29
-10
9.0%
Buechele, Shane pass complete to Burt, John for 24 yards to the MARYLAND47, PENALTY TEXAS holding (Williams, Connor) 10 yards to the TEXAS19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:47
4TH & 24
OWN 19
+5
8.8%
Buechele, Shane pass pass intercepted by Savage Jr., Darnell at the TEXAS41, Savage Jr., Darnell return 41 yards to the TEXAS0, PENALTY MARYLAND offside (Carter Jr., Jermaine) 5 yards to the TEXAS24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:39
4TH & 19
OWN 24
0
8.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan HumphreySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 26TD
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:0693% → 99%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
7.0%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 4 yds to the Texas 20Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+5
6.8%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 5 yds to the Texas 15Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+3
5.6%
Jake Funk run for 3 yds to the Texas 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
1.5%
Jake Funk run for 12 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 27TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 0:532% → 6%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
2.3%
TEXAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Texas 17Similar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+18
1.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 18 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
2.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey, broken up by Mbi TanyiSimilar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+16
1.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 16 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
2.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 17 yds to the Mary 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
2.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan HumphreySimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+32
5.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 32 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:3697% → 97%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
3.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 49Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 13
OWN 49
-4
3.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:23
Shane Buechele run for 3 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)
+25.7
TD · Q3 4:29
Ty Johnson run for 40 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK)
-19.6
TD · Q4 7:36
Kasim Hill run for 3 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK)
-19.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com