2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadJKST aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreJKST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:28 · Christian Jacquemin punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:35: KaVontae Turpin run for 39 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:24: Jarrad Hayes pass intercepted for a TD Ridwan Issahaku return for 53 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: JKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4JKST made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 6:15JKST 4th & 13 at JKST 22, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q1 5:28JKST 4th & 16 at JKST 23, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 15:00JKST 4th & 8 at JKST 27, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 14:46TCU 4th & 5 at JKST 36, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%42% to convertField goal99.7%−0.142% to makePunt99.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 11:41JKST 4th & 12 at JKST 34, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 10:16TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 17, up 21Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 5:55JKST 4th & 18 at JKST 5, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.311% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 13:39JKST 4th & 13 at JKST 47, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 10:16JKST 4th & 8 at JKST 27, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 4:43JKST 4th & 6 at JKST 39, down 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 15:00TCU 4th & 12 at JKST 46, up 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.123% to convertField goal99.9%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 11:07JKST 4th & 3 at JKST 40, down 56Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 6:09JKST 4th & 6 at JKST 20, down 63Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−<0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 1:08TCU 4th & 7 at JKST 37, up 63Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%37% to convertField goal100.0%−<0.140% to makePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 8:10TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:33TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:35TCU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:24TCU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:13TCU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:20TCU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:15TCU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:15TCU Touchdown, up 62 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartJKSTDrive 1DOWNS14 plays · 40 yds · 4:350% → 0%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+37
99.9%
Brent Lyles pass complete to Jevon Floyd for 37 yds to the TCU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+9
99.9%
Brent Lyles pass complete to Carle Ollie for 9 yds to the TCU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
99.9%
Jordan Johnson rush for 1 yard to the TCU4 (Howard, Travin), PENALTY JKST illegal motion 5 yards to the TCU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
99.9%
Brent Lyles pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 3 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-28
99.8%
Brent Lyles sacked by Ranthony Texada for a loss of 28 yards to the TCU 35 Brent Lyles fumbled, recovered by JckSt Brent Lyles , return for 0 yards , return for 0 yards to the TCU 35 Brent Lyles pass incomplete JACKSON ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Brent Lyles) to the TCU 35Similar
Q1 10:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 35
0
99.8%
Christian Jacquemin pass incomplete to Brandon Maiden, broken up by Ridwan IssahakuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD7 plays · 65 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 5 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
99.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ty Slanina for 6 yds to the JckSt 41Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+10
99.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 10 yds to the JckSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
99.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 10 yds to the JckSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+13
99.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kenedy Snell for 13 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 3PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 1:550% → 0%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
99.8%
Brent Lyles pass complete to Jevon Floyd for a loss of 4 yards to the JckSt 21Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.8%
Brent Lyles sacked by Ridwan Issahaku for a loss of 3 yards to the JckSt 22Similar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
99.8%
Christian Jacquemin punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the JckSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4TD2 plays · 36 yds · 0:36100% → 100%
JKSTDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
TCUDrive 6TD3 plays · 51 yds · 1:03100% → 100%
JKSTDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+17
99.8%
Christian Jacquemin punt for 44 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 17 yds to the TCU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8DOWNS7 plays · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 14:46
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+6
99.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Darius Anderson for 6 yds to the JckSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 11:41
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-3
99.8%
Jarrad Hayes pass complete to Jordan Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the JckSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 10:16
4TH & 1
OWN 17
0
99.8%
Adam Nunez punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jevon Floyd at the JckSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 11INT TD2 plays · -4 yds · 1:010% → 0%
JKSTDrive 12PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q2 7:16
2ND & 9
OWN 14
-5
99.9%
Brent Lyles sacked by L.J. Collier for a loss of 5 yards to the JckSt 9Similar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 18
OWN 5
0
99.9%
Christian Jacquemin punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 36 , Desmon White returns for no gain to the TCU 5 TCU Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the TCU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13TD9 plays · 64 yds · 2:40100% → 100%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+22
99.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 22 yds to the JckSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+5
99.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 5 yds to the JckSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
99.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 7 yds to the JckSt 23Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
99.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jalen Reagor, broken up by Dario RobinsonSimilar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+13
99.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 13 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 14END OF HALF4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
TCUDrive 15INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+25
99.9%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted Ryan Theyard return for 25 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 16PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 1:000% → 0%
Q3 13:39
4TH & 13
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Christian Jacquemin punt for 43 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17TD10 plays · 90 yds · 2:35100% → 100%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
99.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ty Slanina for 12 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
99.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 9 yds to the JckSt 43Similar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
99.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 37 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ritchie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:16
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+6
100.0%
Brent Lyles pass incomplete to Benjy Parrish, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Lewis, Julius) 6 yards to the JKST25, 1ST DOWN JKST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:16
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
100.0%
Christian Jacquemin punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19TD2 plays · 56 yds · 0:19100% → 100%
JKSTDrive 20FUMBLE TD4 plays · 7 yds · 1:320% → 0%
Q3 4:43
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+32
100.0%
Quitten Brown run for no gain Quitten Brown fumbled, forced by Ty Summers, recovered by TCU Arico Evans , return for 32 yds, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
TCUDrive 22PUNT14 plays · 38 yds · 2:35100% → 100%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
100.0%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 6 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+12
100.0%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 12 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
100.0%
Shawn Robinson run for a loss of 4 yards to the JckSt 46 Shawn Robinson fumbled, recovered by TCU Sewo OloniluaSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-10
100.0%
Shawn Robinson run for 5 yds to the TCU 41 TCU Penalty, personal foul (Daythan Davis) to the TCU 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 44
+10
100.0%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 10 yds to the JckSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 22 yds · 0:000% → 0%
TCUDrive 24TD5 plays · 77 yds · 2:47100% → 100%
Q4 6:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
100.0%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Dylan Thomas for 10 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK) JACKSON ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
TCUDrive 26DOWNS7 plays · 18 yds · 2:52100% → 100%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
100.0%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 17 yds to the JckSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:24
Jarrad Hayes pass intercepted for a TD Ridwan Issahaku return for 53 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q1 1:35
KaVontae Turpin run for 39 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)
+0.1