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CARK

Central Arkansas 19 at Kansas State 55

KSU
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadCARK aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreCARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Keshawn Ledet run for 7 yds to the CArk 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:27: Brandon Cox run for 37 yds for a TD, (Matt Cummins KICK) — CARK win probability +1.4 pts (now 7%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:53: Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Roman Gordon for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Cummins PAT MISSED) — CARK win probability +1.7 pts (now 10%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:38: Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 55 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:17: Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 70 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +2.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:45: Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Harris for 69 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +1.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 4CARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 10:39CARK 4th & 7 at KSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:24KSU 4th & 7 at CARK 33, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.6%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:43CARK 4th & 20 at CARK 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:41KSU 4th & 5 at CARK 36, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.9%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:39CARK 4th & 9 at CARK 26, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:33CARK 4th & 9 at CARK 26, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:22KSU 4th & 8 at CARK 11, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:40CARK 4th & 8 at KSU 35, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:03CARK 4th & 13 at KSU 22, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:15CARK 4th & 1 at KSU 39, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.1%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:59CARK 4th & 4 at CARK 11, down 36
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:27KSU 4th & 11 at CARK 25, up 36
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    100.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:58KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:27CARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:34KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:53CARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    11.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:38KSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:17KSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:45KSU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:35KSU Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:3596% → 96%
Q1 14:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
96.3%
Alex Barnes run for 3 yds to the CArk 1Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.3%
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 2FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 3:144% → 4%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.3%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incomplete to Brandon CoxSimilar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.3%
Carlos Blackman run for no gain to the CArk 25Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+27
96.2%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Lester Wells for 27 yds to the KanSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
96.1%
Carlos Blackman run for 3 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+4
96.0%
Carlos Blackman run for 4 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+8
96.0%
Hayden Hildebrand run for 8 yds to the KanSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
95.9%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Roman Gordon for 6 yds to the KanSt 27Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 4
OPP 27
-3
95.8%
Carlos Blackman run for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 30Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
95.8%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incomplete to Roman GordonSimilar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
95.7%
Matt Cummins 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3MISSED FG
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:4796% → 95%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
95.6%
Alex Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 37Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+3
95.5%
Jesse Ertz run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line KANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Isaiah Zuber) to the KanSt 40Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+24
95.5%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Harris for 24 yds to the CArk 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
95.4%
Jesse Ertz run for a loss of 4 yards to the CArk 40Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+7
95.2%
Alex Barnes run for 7 yds to the CArk 33Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
95.2%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Dayton ValentineSimilar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+50
95.1%
Matthew McCrane 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:365% → 5%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
95.1%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incomplete to Jakari DillardSimilar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-8
95.0%
Hayden Hildebrand sacked by Jayd Kirby for a loss of 8 yards to the CArk 25Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 18
OWN 25
-5
95.1%
CENTRAL ARK Penalty, False Start (Gilberto Garcia) to the CArk 20Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 23
OWN 20
+3
95.0%
Kierre Crossley run for 3 yds to the CArk 23Similar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 20
OWN 23
0
94.9%
Matt Cummins punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CArk 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5495% → 95%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
94.9%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
94.8%
Jesse Ertz run for 5 yds to the CArk 36Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
94.7%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q1 4:41
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+53
95.1%
Matthew McCrane 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:085% → 7%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
95.0%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Roman Gordon for 8 yds to the CArk 33Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
94.8%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Brandon Cox for 8 yds to the CArk 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
94.7%
Brandon Cox run for 4 yds to the CArk 45Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+6
94.6%
Carlos Blackman run for 6 yds to the KanSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
94.4%
Carlos Blackman run for 7 yds to the KanSt 42Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+1
94.2%
Carlos Blackman run for 1 yd to the KanSt 41Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+4
94.1%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Brandon Myers for 4 yds to the KanSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
92.7%
Brandon Cox run for 37 yds for a TD, (Matt Cummins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:3693% → 94%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
93.4%
Alex Barnes run for 11 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
93.4%
Alex Barnes run for 7 yds to the CArk 46Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 46
-2
93.3%
Alex Barnes run for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 48Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+25
93.1%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Harris for 25 yds to the CArk 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
93.2%
Byron Pringle run for 15 yds to the CArk 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
94.3%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 8TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:326% → 10%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.8%
Hayden Hildebrand run for 5 yds to the CArk 30Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
93.6%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Lester Wells for 6 yds to the CArk 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
93.4%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Lester Wells for 8 yds to the CArk 44Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+5
93.1%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Brandon Myers for 5 yds to the CArk 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
93.0%
Lester Wells run for 8 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 2
OPP 43
0
92.8%
Carlos Blackman run for no gain to the KanSt 43Similar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+7
92.7%
Carlos Blackman run for 7 yds to the KanSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
92.6%
Carlos Blackman run for 7 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+6
92.2%
Carlos Blackman run for 6 yds to the KanSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
92.1%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (D.J. Reed) to the KanSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
92.1%
Carlos Blackman run for 3 yds to the KanSt 7Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
91.9%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incomplete to Brandon CoxSimilar
Q2 8:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
90.2%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Roman Gordon for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Cummins PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 2:5591% → 93%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
91.1%
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd to the KanSt 24Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+18
91.1%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 18 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
91.5%
Alex Barnes run for 2 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
91.3%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+11
90.8%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 11 yds to the CArk 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
91.3%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dayton Valentine) to the KanSt 45Similar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+55
93.0%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 55 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 10PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:437% → 5%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.0%
Kierre Crossley run for 2 yds to the CArk 27Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
92.8%
Brandon Cox run for no gain to the CArk 27Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-1
93.0%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Carlos Blackman for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 26Similar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+62
95.1%
Matt Cummins punt for 36 yds , D.J. Reed returns for 62 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 11INT
10 plays · 31 yds · 2:205% → 5%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.9%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Chandler Dexter for 8 yds to the CArk 33Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
94.6%
Carlos Blackman run for 8 yds to the CArk 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
94.7%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Brandon Cox for 10 yds to the KanSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
94.4%
Carlos Blackman run for 3 yds to the KanSt 46Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+11
94.4%
Carlos Blackman run for 11 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
94.0%
Hayden Hildebrand run for 1 yd to the KanSt 34 CENTRAL ARK Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Hayden Hildebrand) to the KanSt 39Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 14
OPP 39
-5
94.5%
Hayden Hildebrand sacked by Duke Shelley for a loss of 5 yards to the KanSt 44Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 19
OPP 44
+7
95.0%
Hayden Hildebrand pass intercepted D.J. Reed return for 7 yds to the KanSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4696% → 98%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
95.8%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Dayton Valentine) to the KanSt 20Similar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
95.8%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+10
95.8%
Jesse Ertz run for 10 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+70
98.3%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 70 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 40 yds · 0:102% → 2%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
97.6%
Carlos Blackman run for 13 yds to the CArk 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
97.6%
Carlos Blackman run for 13 yds to the KanSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
97.6%
Hayden Hildebrand run for 14 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:222% → 2%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.7%
Carlos Blackman run for 2 yds to the CArk 27Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
97.7%
Carlos Blackman run for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 26Similar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
97.8%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incomplete to Brandon MyersSimilar
Q3 13:33
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
97.8%
Matt Cummins punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15FG
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:5898% → 99%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.1%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Winston Dimel for 5 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
98.2%
Jesse Ertz run for 9 yds to the KanSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+48
98.3%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 48 yds to the CArk 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
98.4%
Jesse Ertz run for 3 yds to the CArk 10Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 7
OPP 10
-1
98.4%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Chris Terrell for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 11Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
98.4%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+28
99.1%
Matthew McCrane 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 16FG
18 plays · 61 yds · 6:581% → 2%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
98.7%
Kierre Crossley run for 2 yds to the CArk 19Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+15
98.8%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Jakari Dillard for 15 yds to the CArk 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
98.7%
CENTRAL ARK Penalty, False Start (Brandon Myers) to the CArk 29Similar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+1
98.6%
Cedric Battle run for 1 yd to the CArk 30Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+8
98.7%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Joshua Nix for 8 yds to the CArk 38Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+9
98.8%
Carlos Blackman run for 9 yds to the CArk 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
98.8%
Carlos Blackman run for no gain to the CArk 47Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+16
98.9%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Jakari Dillard for 16 yds to the KanSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
98.9%
Kierre Crossley run for 2 yds to the KanSt 35Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
98.8%
Hayden Hildebrand run for no gain to the KanSt 35Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
98.8%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Brandon Myers for no gain to the KanSt 35Similar
Q3 4:40
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+16
99.0%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Jose Moore for 16 yds to the KanSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
98.9%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Lester Wells for 1 yd to the KanSt 18Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
98.9%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incomplete to Chandler DexterSimilar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 9
OPP 18
-4
99.1%
Hayden Hildebrand sacked by Denzel Goolsby for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 22Similar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 13
OPP 22
+39
98.5%
Matt Cummins 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17TD
2 plays · 69 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+69
99.9%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Harris for 69 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 18FUMBLE
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:220% → 0%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Kierre Crossley run for no gain to the CArk 25Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incomplete to Lester WellsSimilar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.9%
Kierre Crossley run for 12 yds to the CArk 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
99.9%
Kierre Crossley run for 1 yd to the CArk 38Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+8
99.9%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Joshua Nix for 8 yds to the CArk 46Similar
Q3 1:03
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Lester Wells for 5 yds to the KanSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Keshawn Ledet run for no gain to the KanSt 49Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.9%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Jakari Dillard for 4 yds Jakari Dillard fumbled, forced by Elijah Sullivan, recovered by KanSt Denzel GoolsbySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 2:25100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
99.9%
Dalvin Warmack run for 4 yds to the CArk 48Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+1
99.9%
Dalvin Warmack run for 1 yd to the CArk 47Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+18
99.9%
Skylar Thompson run for 18 yds to the CArk 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
99.9%
Skylar Thompson run for 1 yd to the CArk 28Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+10
99.9%
Dalvin Warmack run for 10 yds to the CArk 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.9%
Dalvin Warmack run for 18 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 20FUMBLE
18 plays · 56 yds · 7:260% → 0%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Kierre Crossley run for 1 yd to the CArk 26Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Kierre Crossley run for no gain to the CArk 26Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+16
99.9%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Kierre Crossley for 16 yds to the CArk 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
99.9%
Kierre Crossley run for 2 yds to the CArk 44Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+8
99.9%
Lester Wells run for 8 yds to the KanSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
99.9%
Kierre Crossley run for 6 yds to the KanSt 42Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+3
99.9%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Brandon Myers for 3 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Kierre Crossley run for no gain to the KanSt 39Similar
Q4 9:15
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+11
99.9%
Carlos Blackman run for 11 yds to the KanSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-6
99.9%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Lester Wells for a loss of 6 yards to the KanSt 34Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 16
OPP 34
-1
99.9%
Carlos Blackman run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 35Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 17
OPP 35
+18
100.0%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Jose Moore for 18 yds to the KanSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
99.9%
Carlos Blackman run for 5 yds to the KanSt 12Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 5
OPP 12
-2
99.9%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Dwayne Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 14Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+3
100.0%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Joshua Nix for 3 yds to the KanSt 11Similar
Q4 4:59
4TH & 4
OWN 11
+46
100.0%
Hayden Hildebrand sacked by Brogan Barry for a loss of 11 yards to the KanSt 22 Hayden Hildebrand fumbled, forced by Brogan Barry, recovered by KanSt Kyle Ball at KanSt 23, return for 22 yds to the KanSt 45 KANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Elijah Sullivan) to the KanSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:48100% → 100%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
100.0%
Skylar Thompson run for 30 yds to the CArk 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
100.0%
Tyler Burns run for 3 yds to the CArk 32Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+5
100.0%
Tyler Burns run for 5 yds to the CArk 27Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+3
100.0%
Tyler Burns run for 3 yds to the CArk 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
100.0%
Mike McCoy run for 2 yds to the CArk 22Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+5
100.0%
Mike McCoy run for 5 yds to the CArk 17Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 3
OPP 17
-10
100.0%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nick Kaltmayer) to the CArk 27Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 13
OPP 27
+2
100.0%
Mike McCoy run for 2 yds to the CArk 25Similar
Q4 0:27
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+5
100.0%
Mike McCoy run for 5 yds to the CArk 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:150% → 0%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
100.0%
Keshawn Ledet run for 4 yds to the CArk 24Similar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+10
100.0%
Keshawn Ledet run for 10 yds to the CArk 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
100.0%
Keshawn Ledet run for 7 yds to the CArk 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:17
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 70 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
+2.5
TD · Q2 8:53
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Roman Gordon for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Cummins PAT MISSED)
-1.7
TD · Q2 5:38
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 55 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
+1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com