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LIB

Liberty 48 at Baylor 45

BAY
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:38 · Stephen Calvert pass complete to Cephas Reddick for 12 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Pregame prior+39.7Home team on offense−1.6Score differential−1.5Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:24: Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 13 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +21.3 pts (now 39%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:11: Stephen Calvert run for 8 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +26.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:39: John Lovett run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +19.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 6:12: Stephen Calvert pass complete to Spencer Jones for 26 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +29.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:00: John Lovett run for 34 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +29.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7LIB made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 11:27LIB 4th & 4 at BAY 10, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.2%−<0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:27BAY 4th & 14 at BAY 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:26LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:26LIB 4th & 16 at LIB 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:17BAY 4th & 6 at BAY 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:35LIB 4th & 14 at BAY 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.2%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:38LIB 4th & 3 at BAY 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    8.0%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:17LIB 4th & 4 at BAY 16, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.5%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:17BAY 4th & 2 at LIB 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    88.5%−0.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:12BAY 4th & 4 at LIB 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−1.0
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    83.1%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:31LIB 4th & 7 at BAY 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    13.9%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:38BAY 4th & 11 at BAY 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:48LIB 4th & 7 at BAY 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    13.8%−7.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00BAY 4th & 6 at BAY 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−1.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:38LIB 4th & 10 at LIB 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6LIB made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q2 13:59BAY Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:38LIB Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    8.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:38BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:53LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:31BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:37BAY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:24LIB Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:11LIB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.6
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:39BAY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:12LIB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 5:00BAY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.7%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1FG
13 plays · 73 yds · 3:332% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
97.9%
LIBERTY Penalty, false start (Michael Henderman) to the Liber 12Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+36
97.9%
Carrington Mosley run for 36 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
97.9%
Carrington Mosley run for 3 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+4
97.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 4 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+6
97.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Carrington Mosley for 6 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
97.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Marquis Fitzgerald for 12 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
97.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Marquis Fitzgerald for 8 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+3
97.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Marquis Fitzgerald for 3 yds to the Bayl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
97.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Zac FoutzSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-5
97.9%
Carrington Mosley run for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 21
+11
97.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 11 yds to the Bayl 10Similar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+27
97.4%
Alex Probert 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 17 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
97.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 11 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
97.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 2 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
97.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 3 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+5
97.4%
LIBERTY Penalty, (5 Yards) to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
97.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
97.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
97.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 9
OWN 47
-5
97.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, delay of game (Chris Miller) to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 14
OWN 42
0
97.4%
Drew Galitz punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Damian King at the Liber 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
97.1%
Frankie Hickson run for no gain to the Liber 20Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
97.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 8 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
97.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 1 yd to the Liber 29Similar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+2
97.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
97.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 5 yds to the Liber 36Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+14
97.0%
CALVERT, S. pass incomplete to KING, Dam., PENALTY BU pass interference (Pitre,Jalen) 14 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
50
-6
97.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 9 yds to the BAYLOR 41 LIBERTY Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Liber 44Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 16
OWN 44
-1
97.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for a loss of 1 yard Damian King fumbled, forced by Clay Johnston, recovered by Liber Damian KingSimilar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 20
OWN 40
+4
97.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 44Similar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 16
OWN 44
0
97.1%
Trey Turner punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
96.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the Bayl 10Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+4
96.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 6
OWN 14
0
96.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 6
OWN 14
0
96.3%
Drew Galitz punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Damian King at the Liber 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5FG
11 plays · 35 yds · 2:244% → 5%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
96.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 14 yds to the BAYLOR 45 LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive holding (Antonio Gandy-Golden) to the Liber 45Similar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 6
OWN 45
+3
96.0%
Carrington Mosley run for 3 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+18
96.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 18 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
96.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
96.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 2 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+12
96.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 12 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
96.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Blake LynchSimilar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
96.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Marquis FitzgeraldSimilar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-4
96.0%
Stephen Calvert run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 24Similar
Q1 2:35
4TH & 14
OPP 24
+41
95.2%
Alex Probert 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3695% → 96%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Chris Platt, broken up by Jeremy PetersSimilar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 5 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
95.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 6 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
95.3%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
95.5%
Anu Solomon run for 4 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
95.4%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Bayl 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+6
94.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for 6 yds to the Liber 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
94.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the Liber 45Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+45
95.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Denzel Mims for 45 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:215% → 8%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 6 yds to the Liber 31Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
95.0%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 29Similar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+33
95.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 33 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
94.8%
Stephen Calvert run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 40 Stephen Calvert fumbled, recovered by Liber Stephen Calvert , return for 1 yd to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 12
OPP 40
0
94.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+40
92.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 40 yds for a TD, (M. Lewis Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0092% → 95%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
92.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for 7 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
92.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 3 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+49
92.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 49 yds to the Liber 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
93.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the Liber 14Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
94.5%
JaMycal Hasty run for 14 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 4:217% → 10%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for no gain to the Liber 25Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
93.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 12 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
93.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Marquis Fitzgerald for 8 yds to the Liber 45Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+4
92.8%
Carrington Mosley run for 4 yds to the Liber 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
92.7%
Carrington Mosley run for 10 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
92.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
92.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 7 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
92.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Brian NanceSimilar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+12
93.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Cephas Reddick for 12 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
92.5%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Ira Lewis for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+8
92.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Marquis Fitzgerald for 8 yds to the Bayl 16Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 4
OPP 16
0
92.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Marquis Fitzgerald, broken up by Blake LynchSimilar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+33
89.8%
Alex Probert 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10FG
17 plays · 68 yds · 5:0590% → 90%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
90.3%
Chris Platt run for 13 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
90.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for 9 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+4
91.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
90.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+6
91.2%
John Lovett run for 6 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
91.2%
John Lovett run for 10 yds to the Liber 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
91.4%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+4
91.4%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the Liber 36Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+1
91.3%
Dru Dixon run for 1 yd to the Liber 35Similar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+7
90.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Chris Platt for 7 yds to the Liber 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
89.6%
Anu Solomon run for 5 yds to the Liber 23Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 5
OPP 23
0
89.6%
Anu Solomon run for no gain to the Liber 22 Anu Solomon fumbled, recovered by Bayl Anu SolomonSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 4
OPP 22
0
88.2%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+39
90.3%
Connor Martin 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
88.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12INT TD
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0789% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.2%
John Lovett run for 2 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
89.2%
John Lovett run for 6 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+32
80.7%
Anu Solomon pass intercepted for a TD Chris Turner return for 32 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:2280% → 90%
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+55
80.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Denzel Mims for 40 yds to the BAYLOR 35 for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, roughing passer (Rion Davis) to the Liber 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
83.3%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
90.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Chris Platt for 20 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
86.5%
Carrington Mosley run for 3 yds to the Liber 24Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+6
86.5%
Carrington Mosley run for 6 yds to the Liber 30Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+4
86.2%
Carrington Mosley run for 4 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
86.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Zac Foutz for 6 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+11
85.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 11 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
84.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 3 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
84.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Marquis Fitzgerald, broken up by Jourdan BlakeSimilar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
85.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
86.6%
Thomas Kennedy punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
86.1%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+15
86.3%
Solomon,Anu pass incomplete to Mims,Denzel, PENALTY LIBERTY pass interference (TURNER, C.) 15 yards to the BU39, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
86.9%
Chris Platt run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 37Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+6
86.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 6 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
86.9%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 6
OWN 43
-5
85.9%
Galitz,Drew punt 46 yards to the LIBERTY11, fair catch by KING, Dam., PENALTY BU illegal procedure 5 yards to the BU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
85.3%
Drew Galitz punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Damian King at the Liber 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:4817% → 27%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
82.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kentory Matthews for 4 yds to the Liber 25Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+10
82.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Cephas Reddick for 10 yds to the Liber 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
82.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kentory Matthews for no gain to the Liber 35Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+35
82.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 35 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
79.8%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 13 yds to the Bayl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
79.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
79.6%
Frankie Hickson run for no gain to the Bayl 14Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
80.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Harrison HandSimilar
Q3 5:48
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
73.1%
Alex Probert 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
87.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Chris Platt for 75 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18TD
16 plays · 73 yds · 5:1314% → 39%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
86.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Cephas ReddickSimilar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
86.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Cephas ReddickSimilar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+12
87.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Carrington Mosley for 12 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
85.2%
Stephen Calvert run for no gain to the Liber 39Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
85.5%
Carrington Mosley run for 5 yds to the Liber 44Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+7
84.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 7 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
83.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by BJ ThompsonSimilar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
84.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Cephas Reddick for 6 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+20
84.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Cephas Reddick for 20 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
82.6%
Carrington Mosley run for 2 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+2
82.6%
Carrington Mosley run for 2 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+10
83.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 10 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
82.6%
Carrington Mosley run for 3 yds to the Bayl 6Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-7
82.6%
Carrington Mosley run for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 13 LIBERTY Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 0:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
61.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 13 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:2466% → 63%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
66.1%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
65.9%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
63.9%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 19
+25
62.7%
Drew Galitz punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Damian King at the BAYLOR 42 BAYLOR Penalty, kick catching interference (Jairon McVea) to the Bayl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20TD
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:2741% → 70%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
59.1%
Carrington Mosley run for 5 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+12
58.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Lionell McConnell for 12 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
56.7%
Carrington Mosley run for 8 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 2
OPP 19
-1
56.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 20Similar
Q4 14:38
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+11
58.7%
Carrington Mosley run for 11 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
56.7%
Carrington Mosley run for 1 yd to the Bayl 8Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
30.4%
Stephen Calvert run for 8 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3234% → 63%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
34.4%
Anu Solomon run for 44 yds to the Liber 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
42.3%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the Liber 26Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+23
42.7%
Anu Solomon run for 23 yds to the Liber 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
62.6%
John Lovett run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:2751% → 86%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
49.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 39Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
47.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+12
49.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 12 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
46.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Thomas Kennedy for 9 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+4
45.6%
Carrington Mosley run for 4 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
46.3%
Carrington Mosley run for 7 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 3
OPP 29
0
43.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Harrison HandSimilar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+4
45.9%
Carrington Mosley run for 4 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
43.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 2 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-3
43.7%
Carrington Mosley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 26Similar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+26
14.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Spencer Jones for 26 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 1:1219% → 48%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
19.4%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+6
19.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 6 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+34
48.4%
John Lovett run for 34 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 24PUNT
14 plays · 24 yds · 4:2267% → 92%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
33.1%
Carrington Mosley run for 9 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
30.7%
Carrington Mosley run for 4 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
29.7%
Carrington Mosley run for 2 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+1
29.3%
Carrington Mosley run for 1 yd to the Liber 41Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+8
22.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Marquis Fitzgerald for 8 yds to the Liber 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
20.3%
Carrington Mosley run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 9
50
-1
16.0%
Carrington Mosley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 49Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
12.2%
Stephen Calvert run for no gain to the Liber 49Similar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
7.6%
Trey Turner punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jourdan Blake at the Bayl 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25INT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:2619% → 15%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
19.2%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
18.6%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+20
17.9%
Anu Solomon run for 20 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
22.2%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Tony Nicholson, broken up by Jeremy PetersSimilar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-2
14.9%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Stephen Calvert return for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:12
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Spencer Jones for 26 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)
-29.5
TD · Q4 5:00
John Lovett run for 34 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)
+29.2
TD · Q4 12:11
Stephen Calvert run for 8 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)
-26.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com