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VAN

Vanderbilt 42 at Tennessee 24

TENN
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:57 · Kyle Shurmur run for no gain to the Tenn 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Home team on offense−10.1Score differential−3.1Garbage-time factor−3.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.5Pregame prior+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:47: Ralph Webb run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +5.7 pts (now 48%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:37: Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 30 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +13.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 5:22: Aaron Medley 49 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +4.6 pts (now 45%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:20: Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 20 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) TENNESSEE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined — VAN win probability +14.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:58: Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 12 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +14.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5VAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 11:41TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 8:04VAN 4th & 1 at TENN 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    43.0%−2.0
    51% to make
    Punt
    42.2%−2.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 1:49TENN 4th & 22 at TENN 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−4.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:27VAN 4th & 20 at VAN 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−1.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  5. Q3 14:55VAN 4th & 3 at TENN 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    57.8%−2.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    58.0%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:06TENN 4th & 14 at TENN 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−3.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:57VAN 4th & 1 at TENN 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    57.9%−4.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    58.1%−4.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:22TENN 4th & 13 at VAN 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−2.5
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−2.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:20TENN 4th & 7 at TENN 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3VAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:06TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:13VAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:50TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:47VAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:37VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:20VAN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:58VAN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:59VAN Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:27TENN Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 4:5452% → 55%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
51.8%
John Kelly run for 4 yds to the Tenn 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+18
51.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 18 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
51.8%
Ty Chandler run for 16 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
51.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to John Kelly for 5 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+17
51.8%
Carlin Fils-aime run for 17 yds to the Vandy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+20
51.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 20 yds to the Vandy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
51.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Ethan WolfSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
51.8%
John Kelly run for 3 yds to the Vandy 2Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
54.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 2 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+2
55.2%
VANDERBILT Penalty, offside defense (Joejuan Williams) to the Vandy 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5346% → 48%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 5 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
54.1%
TENNESSEE Penalty, offside defense (4 Yards) to the Vandy 34Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
53.9%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
54.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 23 yds to the TENNESSEE 39 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
53.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 13 yds to the Tenn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
53.5%
Ralph Webb run for 14 yds to the Tenn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
53.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Nathan MarcusSimilar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
53.5%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Tenn 9Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+9
51.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 9 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2353% → 60%
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
52.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 18 yds to the Tenn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+32
53.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 32 yds to the Vandy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
54.1%
John Kelly run for no gain to the Vandy 25Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
54.1%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 6 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+12
53.8%
Guarantano, J. pass incomplete to Kelly, J., PENALTY VANDY pass interference (Griffin, J.) 12 yards to the VANDY7, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
55.4%
Ty Chandler run for 6 yds to the Vandy 1Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.0%
John Kelly run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:0342% → 50%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
57.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 16 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
57.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 15 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
56.6%
Trent Sherfield run for 4 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+5
56.6%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
58.1%
Kyle Shurmur run for 2 yds to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
57.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 4 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+8
57.3%
Ralph Webb run for 8 yds to the Tenn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
57.3%
Shurmur, K. pass incomplete to Sherfield, T., PENALTY UT personal foul (Berry, El.) 10 yards to the UT11, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
57.3%
Sam Dobbs run for 9 yds to the Tenn 2Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 2
0
57.3%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Tenn 2Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
51.6%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+2
50.5%
Openshaw, T. kick attempt failed (blocked) (blocked by Martin, J.), PENALTY UT offside defense (Martin, J.) 2 yards to the UT1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
55.2%
John Kelly run for 1 yd to the Tenn 20Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+8
55.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 8 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 1
OWN 28
0
55.0%
John Kelly run for no gain to the Tenn 28Similar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+6
54.4%
VANDERBILT Penalty, offside defense (Jay Woods) to the Tenn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
55.5%
John Kelly run for 9 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 1
OWN 43
-3
56.8%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 40Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
56.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Brandon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
54.9%
Trevor Daniel punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kalija Lipscomb at the Vandy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 5:2747% → 62%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
52.7%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+9
52.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 9 yds to the Vandy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
52.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 18 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
50.6%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (Bruno Reagan) to the Vandy 41Similar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+2
51.9%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+16
51.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Sam Dobbs for 16 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
50.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+9
50.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 9 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 1
OPP 32
0
50.3%
Dallas Rivers run for no gain to the Tenn 32Similar
Q2 8:04
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+2
51.6%
Kyle Shurmur run for 2 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
37.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 30 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 0:4843% → 41%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
42.7%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Charles Wright for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 21Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
42.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Ethan WolfSimilar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-8
41.5%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Jonathan Wynn and Dayo Odeyingbo for a loss of 8 yards to the Tenn 13Similar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
40.8%
Trevor Daniel punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 2 yds · 1:1462% → 62%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
37.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
38.3%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+8
38.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 8 yds to the TENNESSEE 43 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
36.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Sam Dobbs, broken up by Rashaan GauldenSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
37.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-5
36.8%
Shurmur, K. pass complete to Lipscomb, K. for 43 yards to the UT0, clock 00:27, PENALTY VANDY ineligible downfield on pass (Marcus, N.) 5 yards to the UT48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 15
OPP 48
0
36.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 15
OPP 48
-5
37.4%
Loy, S. punt 31 yards to the UT17, fair catch by Jackson, T., PENALTY VANDY false start (Lipscomb, K.) 5 yards to the VANDY47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 20
OWN 47
0
38.4%
Sam Loy punt for 37 yds, downed at the Tenn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
40.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0062% → 63%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
37.6%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 30 Ralph Webb fumbled, forced by Kendal Vickers, recovered by Vandy Bruno ReaganSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 12
OWN 30
0
38.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. Duncan, broken up by Elliott BerrySimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+25
39.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Donaven Tennyson for 25 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
35.8%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Tenn 45Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
35.9%
Ralph Webb run for 7 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
36.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
37.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0040% → 37%
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
39.9%
John Kelly run for 3 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-7
41.1%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Dare Odeyingbo for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 34Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 14
OWN 34
0
37.2%
Jarrett Guarantano run for no gain to the Tenn 34Similar
Q3 12:06
4TH & 14
OWN 34
+4
36.7%
Trevor Daniel punt for 61 yds , Kalija Lipscomb returns for 4 yds to the Vandy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · 52 yds · 0:0063% → 65%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+13
37.2%
Ralph Webb run for 13 yds to the Vandy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+30
36.6%
Ralph Webb run for 30 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
33.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
33.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+9
34.3%
Kyle Shurmur run for 9 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
35.3%
Kyle Shurmur run for no gain to the Tenn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:0340% → 45%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
40.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 10 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
42.0%
John Kelly run for 2 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
42.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Josh PalmerSimilar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+21
41.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 21 yds to the Vandy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
45.1%
John Kelly run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 31Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 13
OPP 31
0
43.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Marquez CallawaySimilar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 13
OPP 31
0
40.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Josh Palmer, broken up by Taurean FergusonSimilar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 13
OPP 31
+49
45.2%
Aaron Medley 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:0257% → 80%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
42.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 11 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
41.6%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-10
40.3%
Webb, R. rush for 3 yards to the VANDY42 (Gaulden, R.;Warrior, N.), PENALTY VANDY holding (Southers, J.) 10 yards to the VANDY29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+6
44.0%
Shurmur, K. pass incomplete to Dobbs, S., PENALTY UT pass interference (Bituli, D.) 6 yards to the VANDY35, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
42.0%
Donaven Tennyson run for 4 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
40.3%
Dallas Rivers run for 3 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+23
40.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 23 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
38.7%
TENNESSEE Penalty, offside defense (Kendal Vickers) to the Tenn 30Similar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 5
OPP 30
-5
38.6%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Jonathan Kongbo for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 35Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
38.8%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+11
33.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 11 yds to the Tenn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
19.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 20 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) TENNESSEE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0021% → 19%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Brandon Johnson, broken up by Tre HerndonSimilar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
21.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Tim Jordan for no gain to the Tenn 25Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+3
20.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 3 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q4 14:20
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+6
19.3%
Trevor Daniel punt for 53 yds , Kalija Lipscomb returns for 6 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 5:3381% → 97%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
19.0%
Ralph Webb run for 17 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
17.8%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+3
17.6%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+5
17.9%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
17.3%
Dallas Rivers run for 14 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
17.1%
Ralph Webb run for 9 yds to the Tenn 21Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+4
16.7%
Dallas Rivers run for 4 yds to the Tenn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
16.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 6 yds to the Tenn 11Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 4
OPP 11
-1
16.7%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 12Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+12
2.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 12 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
4.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass intercepted Taurean Ferguson return for 2 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18TD
2 plays · 28 yds · 0:5297% → 100%
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
2.6%
Dallas Rivers run for 8 yds to the Tenn 20Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+20
0.2%
Ralph Webb run for 20 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:320% → 3%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
0.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 11 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, personal foul (Bryce Lewis) to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
0.3%
Carlin Fils-aime run for 14 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
0.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jeff George for 15 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
3.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 20 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20END OF GAME
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
1.6%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+5
1.6%
Jamauri Wakefield run for 5 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+12
1.7%
Jamauri Wakefield run for 12 yds to the Tenn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
1.6%
Jamauri Wakefield run for 5 yds to the Tenn 20Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+4
1.6%
Jamauri Wakefield run for 4 yds to the Tenn 16Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+3
1.7%
Baffour Osei run for 3 yds to the Tenn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:20
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 20 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) TENNESSEE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined
-14
TD · Q4 6:58
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 12 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
-14
TD · Q2 2:37
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 30 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
-13.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com