2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:19 · Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tavien Feaster for 3 yds to the SCaro 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:50: Jake Bentley pass intercepted for a TD Ryan Carter return for 12 yds for a TD, (Alex Spence KICK) — CLEM win probability +2.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:12: Tavien Feaster run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Spence KICK) — CLEM win probability +5.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:59: Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Spence PAT MISSED) — CLEM win probability +7.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:59: CLEMSON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dabo Swinney) to the Clem 20 — SC win probability +1.1 pts (now 10%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:39: Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 61 yds for a TD, (Alex Spence KICK) — CLEM win probability +5.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 7 of 8CLEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
- Q1 11:13SC 4th & 6 at SC 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snapGo for it22.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.0%average punt
- Q1 7:30CLEM 4th & 9 at SC 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snapGo for it76.3%−0.132% to convertField goal76.1%−0.227% to makePuntTheir call76.3%average punt
- Q1 2:56SC 4th & 3 at SC 48, down 7Close callPunted · 23.2% before the snapGo for it23.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.2%−0.3average punt
- Q1 0:38CLEM 4th & 2 at CLEM 34, up 7Close callPunted · 77.1% before the snapGo for it77.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 10:58SC 4th & 5 at SC 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snapGo for it23.8%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.9%average punt
- Q2 6:50SC 4th & 9 at SC 27, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snapGo for it16.9%−0.430% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.4%average punt
- Q2 1:25SC 4th & 10 at SC 40, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snapGo for it11.6%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.8%average punt
- Q2 0:10CLEM 4th & 8 at SC 47, up 20Close callPunted · 92.0% before the snapGo for it91.9%34% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 10:19CLEM 4th & 10 at SC 32, up 27Close callWent for it · 97.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.9%−0.130% to convertField goal97.0%51% to makePunt96.7%−0.3average punt
- Q3 8:56SC 4th & 16 at SC 23, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.914% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q3 4:15CLEM 4th & 7 at SC 29, up 27Close callWent for it · 98.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.2%−<0.137% to convertField goal98.2%58% to makePunt97.7%−0.6average punt
- Q3 1:52SC 4th & 5 at SC 25, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q4 13:21SC 4th & 11 at CLEM 23, down 34Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.125% to convertField goalTheir call0.4%70% to makePunt0.0%−0.4average punt
- Q4 8:30CLEM 4th & 2 at SC 26, up 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%57% to convertField goal99.6%−0.164% to makePunt99.3%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 6:50CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.2%97% to makeGo for two77.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:12CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.3%97% to makeGo for two80.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:59CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call88.5%97% to makeGo for two88.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:39CLEM Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:47CLEM Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:45SC Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.6%97% to makeGo for two0.4%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSCDrive 1PUNT10 plays · 18 yds · 3:1723% → 25%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
23.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to A.J. Turner for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 25Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+9
23.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 9 yds to the SCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
24.0%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Bryan Edwards) to the SCaro 36Similar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+5
24.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to A.J. Turner for 5 yds to the SCaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 36 yds · 3:3075% → 73%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
25.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for 5 yds to the Clem 36Similar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
25.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 4 yds to the SCaro 41Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-8
25.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Milan Richard for a loss of 8 yards to the SCaro 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3INT TD2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0627% → 25%
SCDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 30 yds · 3:2925% → 26%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
24.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Ty'Son Williams for no gain to the SCaro 18Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+3
24.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 3 yds to the SCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
25.9%
Joseph Charlton punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Hunter Renfrow at the Clem 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5FUMBLE6 plays · 19 yds · 2:0275% → 75%
Q1 2:26
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+5
25.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for 5 yds to the Clem 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
4TH & 2
OWN 34
-3
25.5%
Will Spiers punt for 57 yds , Chris Lammons returns for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 6 Chris Lammons fumbled, recovered by SCaro Chris LammonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 6PUNT11 plays · 39 yds · 4:0226% → 26%
Q2 13:50
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+13
24.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Ty'Son Williams for 13 yds to the SCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+11
25.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 11 yds to the SCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
26.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to OrTre Smith for 3 yds to the SCaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7TD10 plays · 80 yds · 2:3674% → 82%
Q2 10:02
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+23
25.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Travis Etienne for 23 yds to the Clem 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+24
24.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tee Higgins for 24 yds to the SCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+15
23.7%
Bryant, Kelly pass incomplete to Overton, Diondre, PENALTY SOCAROLINA pass interference 15 yards to the SOCAROLINA10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q2 8:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+4
23.8%
Kelly Bryant run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 12 for a 1ST down SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (6 Yards) to the SCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1019% → 18%
CLEMDrive 9TD11 plays · 79 yds · 4:3681% → 90%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
18.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for 13 yds to the Clem 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
18.4%
Kelly Bryant sacked by Aaron Sterling for a loss of 4 yards to the Clem 30Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+9
18.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to D.J. Greenlee for 9 yds to the Clem 39Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+6
17.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 6 yds to the Clem 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+5
17.3%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 5 yds to the SCaro 49Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+40
17.3%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tee Higgins for 40 yds to the SCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
9.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Spence PAT MISSED)Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-15
10.2%
CLEMSON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dabo Swinney) to the Clem 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 0:2513% → 12%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11PUNT10 plays · 33 yds · 1:1291% → 89%
SCDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13TD3 plays · 61 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
SCDrive 14INT6 plays · 15 yds · 1:565% → 4%
CLEMDrive 15DOWNS7 plays · 28 yds · 2:0396% → 96%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
4.3%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Diondre Overton for 6 yds to the Clem 49Similar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
3.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 13 yds to the SCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+3
4.3%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tavien Feaster for 3 yds to the SCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 16PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 1:234% → 4%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
4.3%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Donell Stanley) to the SCaro 24Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 14
OWN 25
-5
3.9%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Hayden Hurst) to the SCaro 20Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 19
OWN 20
+3
3.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 3 yds to the SCaro 23Similar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 16
OWN 23
0
3.7%
Joseph Charlton punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ray-Ray McCloud at the Clem 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17TD15 plays · 69 yds · 5:4397% → 99%
Q3 8:00
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-3
3.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 29 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Clem Kelly BryantSimilar
Q3 7:21
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+15
3.1%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Rashad Fenton) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
50
+4
2.5%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 4 yds to the SCaro 46Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+7
1.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 7 yds to the SCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:232% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19INT6 plays · 30 yds · 2:2399% → 100%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
0.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to C.J. Fuller for 14 yds to the Clem 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
0.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Milan Richard for 3 yds to the Clem 39Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
0.5%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to C.J. Fuller for 2 yds to the Clem 41Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+22
0.5%
Kelly Bryant pass intercepted Keisean Nixon return for 22 yds to the Clem 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20FG4 plays · -1 yds · 0:341% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21INT15 plays · 43 yds · 6:07100% → 100%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
0.4%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 3 yds to the Clem 45Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+10
0.3%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to D.J. Greenlee for 10 yds to the SCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-10
0.2%
Johnson, Hunter rush for 10 yards to the SOCAROLINA12, PENALTY CLEMSON holding (Simmons, Isaiah) 10 yards to the SOCAROLINA32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 16
OPP 28
0
0.2%
Hunter Johnson pass intercepted, touchback. Steven Montac return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 22TD10 plays · 80 yds · 3:550% → 1%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
0.2%
Jake Bentley pass complete to OrTre Smith for 5 yds to the SCaro 25Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
0.2%
Jake Bentley pass complete to OrTre Smith for 4 yds to the SCaro 29Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+16
0.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 16 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+12
0.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 12 yds to the Clem 42Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+2
0.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 2 yds to the Clem 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23END OF GAME5 plays · 17 yds · 2:07100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:59
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Spence PAT MISSED)
-7.5
TD · Q3 14:39
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 61 yds for a TD, (Alex Spence KICK)
-5.7
TD · Q2 8:12
Tavien Feaster run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Spence KICK)
-5.4