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LOU

Louisville 44 at Kentucky 17

UK
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of GameTD—UK 0.3%Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds for aTD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)AWAY 44 - HOME 17 · Q4 5:12
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:12 · Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Home team on offense−53.3Pregame prior−2.3Score differential−39.7Garbage-time factor−20.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−13.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:56: Dae Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +2.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:30: Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +3.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:48: Reggie Bonnafon run for 11 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +8.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:39: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 29 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +5.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 10:09: Blanton Creque 35 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +2.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 7 of 7LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00LOU 4th & 1 at UK 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    73.0%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    73.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:58UK 4th & 4 at UK 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:21LOU 4th & 10 at UK 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    69.2%−2.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:33UK 4th & 13 at LOU 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    22.6%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:44UK 4th & 1 at midfield, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.0%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:44UK 4th & 25 at UK 37, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−1.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:54UK 4th & 18 at UK 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:09LOU 4th & 7 at UK 18, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    89.4%−3.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:01UK 4th & 3 at LOU 21, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    6.6%−0.5
    74% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−6.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:51LOU 4th & 16 at UK 25, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:41UK 4th & 9 at midfield, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:12LOU 4th & 2 at UK 9, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 1 of 2LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:03LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:56LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:30UK Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:48LOU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:39LOU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:12LOU Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:12UK Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5775% → 75%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
24.6%
[SHOT], Jackson, Lam. pass incomplete to Smith, Jay., PENALTY UK pass interference (Lonnie Johnson) 7 yards to the LOU32, 1ST DOWN LOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
24.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 21 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
24.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 48Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+8
24.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 8 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-5
24.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+11
24.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 11 yds to the Kent 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 38
0
24.6%
Malik Williams run for no gain to the Kent 38Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+14
24.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 14 yds to the Kent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
24.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 6 yds to the Kent 18Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+18
25.0%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 18 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.5%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Zykiesis CannonSimilar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
25.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
25.4%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Jaire AlexanderSimilar
Q1 10:58
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
25.3%
Matt Panton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Reggie Bonnafon at the Lvile 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:0375% → 77%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
25.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+9
25.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 9 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
25.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 15 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
25.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 11 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
25.2%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 2 yds to the Kent 26Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+16
25.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 16 yds to the Kent 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
25.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds to the Kent 1Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 1
OPP 0
0
25.2%
PENALTY LOU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY UK unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
25.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 6Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
25.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Kent 1 Lamar Jackson fumbled, forced by Derrick Baity,Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.9%
Dae Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:1924% → 28%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+41
23.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 41 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
24.5%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
24.5%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+25
24.4%
Stephen Johnson run for 25 yds to the Lvile 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
24.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 8 yds to the Lvile 4Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+2
24.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Lvile 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
28.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:0974% → 74%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
26.2%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 17 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+27
25.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 27 yds to the Kent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
25.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-2
25.5%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 23Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+2
25.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Kent 21Similar
Q1 0:21
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+38
25.8%
Blanton Creque 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6MISSED FG
16 plays · 62 yds · 7:4425% → 24%
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
25.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 12 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
25.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+7
25.8%
Lynn Bowden Jr. run for 7 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+5
25.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
26.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 12 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
26.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+3
26.9%
Kayaune Ross run for 3 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+4
26.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
26.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+3
26.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+10
26.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 10 yds to the Lvile 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
26.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Lvile 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
26.9%
Stephen Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
25.9%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+32
24.1%
Austin MacGinnis 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:4575% → 85%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
24.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+44
24.2%
Dae Williams run for 44 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
23.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 19 yds to the Kent 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
15.1%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 11 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 13 yds · 2:5618% → 17%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
18.1%
Stephen Johnson run for 1 yd to the Kent 25Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+16
18.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 16 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
19.3%
Stephen Johnson run for 3 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
19.3%
Sihiem King run for no gain to the Kent 44Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+6
19.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Sihiem King for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 1
50
+2
18.0%
Stephen Johnson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 25
OWN 37
0
17.1%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Benny Snell Jr., broken up by De'Asian RichardsonSimilar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 25
OWN 37
0
17.0%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 25
OWN 37
0
16.9%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Zykiesis CannonSimilar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 25
OWN 37
-3
16.8%
Matt Panton punt for 37 yds , Reggie Bonnafon returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:1687% → 93%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+21
13.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 21 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
12.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth Dawkins, broken up by Quinton BohannaSimilar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
12.7%
Malik Williams run for 9 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+4
12.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
12.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 14 yds to the Kent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
7.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 29 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10FG
6 plays · 48 yds · 0:3210% → 13%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
10.2%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Kayaune Ross for 20 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
11.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Charles Walker for 19 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
11.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Kayaune Ross for 9 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+45
12.9%
Austin MacGinnis 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
11.5%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-5
11.5%
KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Kyle Meadows) to the Kent 23Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 13
OWN 23
0
11.3%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Tavin Richardson, broken up by Trumaine WashingtonSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 13
OWN 23
-5
11.3%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Trevon Young for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 18Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 18
OWN 18
-6
11.3%
Matt Panton punt for 45 yds , Reggie Bonnafon returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 3:0791% → 94%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
9.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dee SmithSimilar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
9.0%
KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (Jordan Jones) to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
8.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 47Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+15
8.6%
KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (Jordan Jones) to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
8.5%
[SHOT], Jackson, Lam. pass complete to Fitzpatrick, De for 18 yards to the UK20 (Chris Westry), PENALTY LOU holding (Christian, Ger.) 10 yards to the UK48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 20
OPP 48
+15
8.5%
KENTUCKY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Denzil Ware) to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
8.4%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 4 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+8
8.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 8 yds to the Kent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
8.2%
Dae Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 18Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 7
OPP 18
-1
8.2%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 19Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+1
8.7%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 1 yd to the Kent 18Similar
Q3 10:09
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+35
6.2%
Blanton Creque 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13DOWNS
11 plays · 41 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
5.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 14 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
6.1%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson, broken up by James HearnsSimilar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
6.1%
Stephen Johnson run for 6 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+11
6.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 11 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
6.5%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+16
6.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 16 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
7.1%
Stephen Johnson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+2
7.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+2
6.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q3 10:01
4TH & 3
OPP 21
-17
6.9%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Stacy Thomas for a loss of 17 yards to the Lvile 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14FG
12 plays · 37 yds · 5:1497% → 98%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
3.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
3.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+15
3.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 15 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
3.1%
Reggie Bonnafon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 48Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+6
3.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 6 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+10
3.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 10 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
3.0%
Dae Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+10
3.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dae Williams for 10 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
3.0%
Dae Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 17Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+2
3.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Kent 15Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+5
3.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 5 yds to the Kent 10Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 16
OPP 25
+42
2.0%
Blanton Creque 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
3.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+15
3.2%
[SHOT], Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson (Smith, Dee), PENALTY LOU targeting (Robinson, G.G.) 15 yards to the UK49, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
3.7%
Sihiem King run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 9
50
0
3.5%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson, broken up by Chucky WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:41
3RD & 9
50
0
3.4%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Charles WalkerSimilar
Q4 14:41
4TH & 9
50
0
3.4%
Matt Panton punt for 49 yds, downed at the Lvile 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 99 yds · 2:4699% → 100%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+16
0.6%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 16 Lamar Jackson fumbled, recovered by Lvile Lamar Jackson for a 1ST down , return for 16 yds to the Lvile 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
0.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 8 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+9
0.5%
Dae Williams run for 9 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
0.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 5 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
0.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+48
0.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 34 yds to the KENTUCKY 28 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (Chris Westry) to the Kent 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
0.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 14 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 4:530% → 0%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
0.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 7 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+2
0.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 36Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+4
0.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
0.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Kayaune Ross for 15 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-7
0.3%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Jonathan Greenard for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 48Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 17
OWN 48
+33
0.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 33 yds to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
0.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Lvile 16Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+12
0.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 12 yds to the Lvile 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18END OF GAME
9 plays · 56 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
0.2%
Trey Smith run for 20 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
0.2%
Trey Smith run for no gain to the Kent 42Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
0.2%
Trey Smith run for 2 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+23
0.2%
Jawon Pass run for 23 yds to the Kent 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
0.2%
Tobias Little run for 1 yd to the Kent 16Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+2
0.2%
Tobias Little run for 2 yds to the Kent 14Similar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+5
0.2%
Tobias Little run for 5 yds to the Kent 9Similar
Q4 5:12
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+3
0.2%
Tobias Little run for 3 yds to the Kent 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:48
Reggie Bonnafon run for 11 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
-8.3
TD · Q2 0:39
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 29 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
-5
TD · Q1 2:30
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
+3.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com