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MIZ

Missouri 48 at Arkansas 45

ARK
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2017 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:55 · Corey Fatony punt for 46 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Pregame prior−11.3Home team on offense−4.3Score differential−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 2:02: Devwah Whaley run for 28 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +20.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:59: Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 8 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +27.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:42: Austin Allen pass complete to David Williams for 24 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +22.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:14: Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 24 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +37.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:05: Tucker McCann 19 yd FG GOOD — MIZ win probability +34.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 10:52MIZ 4th & 20 at MIZ 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:34ARK 4th & 16 at ARK 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:44MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:21ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:22MIZ 4th & 12 at ARK 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    57.5%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:27ARK 4th & 11 at ARK 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:07MIZ 4th & 4 at ARK 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−1.7
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    58.5%−4.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:30ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 46, down 3
    Close callPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:55MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 31, up 3
    Close callPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:06ARK 4th & 3 at MIZ 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    37.8%−3.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−2.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:02MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.4%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:00ARK 4th & 10 at MIZ 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−7.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−17.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:05MIZ 4th & 2 at ARK 2, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.0%−6.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−40.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:19ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:37MIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:44ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:07ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:21MIZ Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:47ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 6:27MIZ Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 4:09MIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:02ARK Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:59MIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:42ARK Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 8:14MIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.6%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1INT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
24.3%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+12
24.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+9
24.3%
Ish Witter run for 9 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+43
24.3%
Drew Lock pass intercepted Henre' Toliver return for 28 yds to the Ark 13 ARKANSAS Penalty, sideline interference (15 Yards) to the Ark 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:2525% → 27%
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
24.9%
Jordan Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+65
24.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jordan Jones for 65 yds to the Misso 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
25.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the Misso 2Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
25.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the Misso 1Similar
Q1 12:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.5%
Austin Allen run for 1 yd for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 1:2774% → 72%
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
26.3%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Misso 26Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
26.3%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
26.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon Moore, PENALTY AR pass interference (Henre' Toliver) 11 yards to the MU40, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
26.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
26.1%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-14
27.3%
Drew Lock sacked by Dre Greenlaw for a loss of 14 yards to the Misso 30 MISSOURI Penalty, intentional grounding (Drew Lock) to the Misso 30Similar
Q1 10:52
4TH & 20
OWN 30
0
27.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Henre' Toliver at the Ark 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
28.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 9 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+3
28.3%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
28.2%
David Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 42Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
28.2%
Austin Allen pass incomplete, broken up by Brandon LeeSimilar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 9
OWN 42
-7
28.0%
Austin Allen sacked by Marcell Frazier for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 16
OWN 35
0
27.7%
Blake Johnson punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 3:2670% → 72%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
30.2%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Misso 11Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+17
30.1%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Misso 13 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Misso 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
29.9%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+34
29.9%
Drew Lock run for 34 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
29.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 5 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+4
29.1%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+4
29.4%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Ark 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
29.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+19
29.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 19 yds to the Ark 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
29.1%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Ark 1Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.2%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5330% → 36%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
29.7%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the Ark 26Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
29.7%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
29.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Deon Stewart for 13 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
36.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jordan Jones for 57 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
34.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 17Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 7
OWN 17
0
34.6%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 7
OWN 17
0
34.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete, broken up by McTelvin AgimSimilar
Q1 2:44
4TH & 7
OWN 17
+33
35.3%
Corey Fatony punt for 45 yds , Henre' Toliver returns for 33 yds to the Misso 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8TD
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:4337% → 44%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
37.2%
David Williams run for 13 yds to the Misso 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
44.4%
David Williams run for 16 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9TD
7 plays · 92 yds · 2:4658% → 62%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
42.3%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Misso 12Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+5
41.9%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the Misso 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+21
43.5%
Ish Witter run for 6 yds to the Misso 23 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (De'Jon Harris) to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
43.0%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+2
42.3%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+55
37.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 55 yds for a TD ARKANSAS Penalty, OF ( Yards) declined, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
39.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 6
OWN 10
0
39.1%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Deon Stewart, broken up by Marcell FrazierSimilar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 6
OWN 10
0
38.6%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Deon StewartSimilar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 6
OWN 10
0
38.0%
Blake Johnson punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:0062% → 60%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
38.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel Hall, broken up by Santos RamirezSimilar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
38.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Nate Brown for 6 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+4
38.3%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
37.3%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+3
38.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 12
OPP 37
0
38.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 12
OPP 37
0
39.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Nate Brown, broken up by Chevin CallowaySimilar
Q2 12:22
4TH & 12
OPP 37
0
40.3%
Corey Fatony punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Henre' Toliver at the Ark 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 2:3342% → 57%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+33
42.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Patton for 33 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
43.9%
David Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
43.1%
Austin Allen run for no gain to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+32
42.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Deon Stewart for 32 yds to the Misso 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
56.5%
David Williams run for 22 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 1:2046% → 55%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
54.1%
Ish Witter run for 6 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+2
53.7%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+4
53.8%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
53.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 11 yds to the Misso 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
45.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 56 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
47.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Deon Stewart for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 24Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
47.3%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jordan Jones, broken up by Anthony SherrilsSimilar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
46.4%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy Patton, broken up by Marcell FrazierSimilar
Q2 6:27
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
45.6%
Blake Johnson punt for 31 yds, downed at the Misso 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 1:2054% → 68%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
46.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 15 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
45.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 18 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
43.7%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+5
43.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon Moore, PENALTY AR OF (Randy Ramsey) 5 yards to the AR14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+4
43.7%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
32.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 10 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
39.3%
T.J. Hammonds run for 4 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
39.7%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to T.J. HammondsSimilar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
38.7%
Austin Allen pass intercepted Adam Sparks return for no gain to the Misso 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17FG
15 plays · 60 yds · 3:0464% → 68%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
36.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 6 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 4
OWN 27
0
35.7%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the Misso 27Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+5
36.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, OF (Dre Greenlaw) to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
35.8%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+10
34.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dominic Collins for 10 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
34.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-3
34.4%
Drew Lock sacked by Briston Guidry for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 44Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 13
OPP 0
0
33.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Domini Collins, PENALTY AR pass interference off-setting, PENALTY MU personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+31
36.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dominic Collins for 31 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
32.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
33.0%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-5
33.9%
MISSOURI Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+11
35.4%
Ish Witter run for 11 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
31.9%
Tucker McCann 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18END OF HALF
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
35.1%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Deon StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
34.2%
Jordan Jones run for 9 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
36.4%
David Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
35.5%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Deon Stewart, broken up by Adam SparksSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
35.2%
David Williams run for 6 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-1
36.2%
Austin Allen sacked by Terry Beckner Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 44Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
33.9%
Blake Johnson punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20INT
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:1367% → 67%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
33.0%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+14
32.2%
Ish Witter run for 14 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+26
31.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 26 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
29.9%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Ark 24Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-1
29.9%
Drew Lock sacked by De'Jon Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+35
32.7%
Drew Lock pass intercepted Henre' Toliver return for 35 yds to the Ark 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
39.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 7 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
39.9%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jordan Jones, broken up by Marcell FrazierSimilar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-1
38.9%
Austin Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 46Similar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
37.6%
Blake Johnson punt for 44 yds, downed at the Misso 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
34.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Misso 15Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+8
34.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 8 yds to the Misso 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
34.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 6 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
33.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+2
34.4%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
35.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 5:0438% → 68%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
37.6%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 22Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
37.4%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Deon StewartSimilar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+30
35.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Brandon Martin for 30 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
42.0%
Deon Stewart run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 48Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+2
38.4%
Austin Allen run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 12
50
-5
38.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (Jeremy Patton) to the Ark 45Similar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 17
OWN 45
+14
36.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to David Williams for 14 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q3 7:06
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+9
40.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Deon Stewart for 9 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
44.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+28
68.2%
Devwah Whaley run for 28 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 24TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:0334% → 67%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon Johnson, broken up by Chevin CallowaySimilar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
66.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 9 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
64.3%
Larry Rountree III run for no gain to the Misso 34Similar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
66.3%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
65.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
65.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Nate Brown for 12 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
62.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Nate Brown for 12 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
60.8%
Drew Lock run for 1 yd to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+4
62.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+11
63.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 11 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
60.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 6 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+9
60.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 9 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
60.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Ark 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
60.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Kendall Blanton MISSOURI Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
33.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 8 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25TD
8 plays · 49 yds · 2:1747% → 72%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
46.6%
David Williams run for no gain to the Misso 49Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
45.9%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy PattonSimilar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+15
42.9%
MISSOURI Penalty, personal foul (Terry Beckner Jr.) to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
50.2%
David Williams run for 10 yds to the Misso 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
50.4%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to La'Michael PettwaySimilar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
50.2%
David Williams run for no gain to the Misso 24Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+24
72.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to David Williams for 24 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 26TD
9 plays · 89 yds · 2:2828% → 74%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
72.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon Johnson, broken up by Kevin Richardson IISimilar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+41
72.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 41 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
66.3%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+9
66.3%
Ish Witter run for 9 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
64.2%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+7
64.1%
Ish Witter run for 7 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
64.1%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Ark 24Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+24
26.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 24 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 27FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:1444% → 58%
Q4 8:14
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+13
44.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Brandon Martin for 13 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
45.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Deon Stewart for 14 yds to the Misso 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
40.2%
MISSOURI Penalty, personal foul (Joshuah Bledsoe) to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
43.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
45.8%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 25Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 11
OPP 25
0
45.5%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Brandon MartinSimilar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+1
41.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Deon Stewart for 1 yd to the Misso 24Similar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
58.3%
Connor Limpert 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 28FG
19 plays · 75 yds · 4:5550% → 94%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
49.9%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (Paul Adams) to the Misso 18Similar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+10
50.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Nate Brown for 10 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
-2
48.3%
Ish Witter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 26Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+24
51.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
50
+22
42.6%
Ish Witter run for 22 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
39.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Nate Brown for 9 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+4
39.4%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
39.4%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Ark 12 MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-1
36.9%
Drew Lock run for 9 yds to the Ark 3 MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive holding (J'Mon Moore) to the Ark 13Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+5
36.9%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the Ark 8Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+4
38.0%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Ark 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
35.9%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the Ark 4Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
35.9%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Ark 2Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
38.0%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the Ark 2Similar
Q4 0:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
5.9%
Tucker McCann 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.5%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:14
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 24 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
-37.6
FG · Q4 0:05
Tucker McCann 19 yd FG GOOD
-34
TD · Q4 12:59
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 8 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
-27.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com