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MISS

Ole Miss 31 at Mississippi State 28

MSST
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2017 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:13 · Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Pregame prior+10.2Home team on offense−27.0Score differential−16.4Garbage-time factor−10.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:13: Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 77 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +19.1 pts (now 59%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:15: Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 63 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +19.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:16: Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 15 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +13.1 pts (now 21%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:58: Kylin Hill run for 30 yds for a TD, (K. Thompson Run For Two-point Conversion) — MSST win probability +12.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:05: Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +28.9 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 9:51MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:47MISS 4th & 15 at MISS 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:08MSST 4th & 21 at MSST 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−1.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:28MISS 4th & 6 at MSST 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    28.2%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:40MISS 4th & 8 at MSST 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    26.7%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:23MSST 4th & 12 at MISS 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    58.7%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:44MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:06MSST 4th & 5 at MISS 40, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.0%−0.5
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    60.5%
    34% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:11MSST 4th & 18 at MISS 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−1.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    61.1%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:15MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 2, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−3.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:07MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 49, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:27MSST 4th & 15 at MSST 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−3.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:13MSST 4th & 5 at MISS 45, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    13.0%−3.0
    25% to make
    Punt
    15.2%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:58MISS 4th & 17 at MISS 38, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−2.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:37MSST 4th & 3 at MISS 28, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%−1.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−9.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:14MSST 4th & 1 at MISS 46, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−1.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−1.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:58MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 3MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 14:21MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:13MISS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:15MISS Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:16MSST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.5%−0.6
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:23MISS Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:58MSST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    10.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:05MSST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 3.0 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.8%−3.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:3915% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
85.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 20Similar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
85.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+58
85.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 58 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
85.0%
Jordan Wilkins run for 22 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2INT
10 plays · 38 yds · 2:4785% → 84%
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
84.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+3
84.7%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Reginald ToddSimilar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
84.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 12 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
84.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+10
84.0%
Aeris Williams run for 10 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
83.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jamal CouchSimilar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
83.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Aeris WilliamsSimilar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+15
83.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Myles Hartsfield return for 15 yds to the Miss 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2417% → 17%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
83.4%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 21Similar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+4
83.3%
Jordan Wilkins run for 4 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
83.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+9
83.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 9 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
82.7%
Will Gleeson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Gabe Myles at the MisSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1283% → 82%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
82.6%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+3
82.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-12
81.9%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 31 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Stewart Reese) to the MisSt 16Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 16
OWN 16
0
81.7%
Logan Cooke punt for 44 yds, fair catch by A.J. Brown at the Miss 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:3319% → 20%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
81.4%
Jordan Wilkins run for 5 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+1
81.2%
Jordan Wilkins run for 1 yd to the Miss 46Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+7
80.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 17 yds to the MISSSTATE 37 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-9
80.3%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Erroll Thompson for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 44Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 19
OWN 44
+4
80.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 4 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 15
OWN 48
0
80.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Dawson KnoxSimilar
Q1 5:47
4TH & 15
OWN 48
0
80.3%
Will Gleeson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Gabe Myles at the MisSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:3080% → 77%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+32
80.1%
Keytaon Thompson run for 32 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
80.4%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 7 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+7
80.5%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
80.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for 2 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 8
OPP 40
-15
80.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 23
OWN 45
+7
78.8%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 16
OPP 48
-5
78.6%
Keytaon Thompson run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 47Similar
Q1 2:08
4TH & 21
OWN 47
0
77.3%
Logan Cooke punt for 34 yds, fair catch by A.J. Brown at the Miss 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:2123% → 26%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
77.2%
Jordan Wilkins run for 12 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
76.8%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+19
76.9%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 19 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
75.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
75.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 8 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q1 0:11
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+2
75.1%
Eric Swinney run for 2 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
74.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 5 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+3
74.5%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+1
74.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 1 yd to the MisSt 36Similar
Q2 13:46
4TH & 1
OPP 36
-5
74.4%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 6
OPP 41
+4
74.3%
TEAM punt blocked by Jeffery Simmons recovered by Braxton Hoyett at Miss 46 returned for 4 yds to the Miss 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+33
75.7%
Keytaon Thompson pass intercepted for a 1ST down C.J. Moore return for 48 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9FG
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:4928% → 29%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
72.4%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Grant Harris for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 38Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 20
OPP 38
+5
72.6%
Jordan Wilkins run for 5 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 15
OPP 33
+15
73.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
71.9%
Jordan Wilkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 21Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 13
OPP 21
0
71.5%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 13
OPP 21
+5
71.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Dawson Knox for 5 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+33
70.9%
Gary Wunderlich 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:5370% → 68%
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
69.9%
Kylin Hill run for 11 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
70.0%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 5
50
+3
70.0%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+6
69.6%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
69.5%
Keytaon Thompson run for 16 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
69.4%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 5 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-2
68.8%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 22Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 7
OPP 22
-5
67.1%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 27Similar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 12
OPP 27
+44
67.7%
Jace Christmann 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:3133% → 36%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
67.0%
Jordan Wilkins run for 4 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+13
66.4%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 13 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
65.1%
Jordan Wilkins run for 9 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 1
OPP 49
-1
64.5%
Eric Swinney run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 2
50
-2
64.7%
Jordan Ta'amu run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 48Similar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
64.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Gabe Myles at the MisSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12FUMBLE
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:2265% → 64%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
65.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 7Similar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 15
OWN 7
0
64.8%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 7Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 15
OWN 7
-3
64.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-3 Yards) to the MisSt 4Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 18
OWN 15
+26
63.6%
Keytaon Thompson run for 11 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
63.9%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
62.8%
Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+4
64.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 43 Keytaon Thompson fumbled, recovered by MissSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:1543% → 40%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
57.4%
Jordan Ta'amu run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 12
OPP 45
0
58.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 13
OPP 45
-9
59.9%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Erroll Thompson for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 45 Jordan Ta'amu fumbled, recovered by MisStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14END OF HALF
8 plays · 25 yds · 1:0267% → 71%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
66.7%
Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
64.8%
Keytaon Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+1
64.1%
Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+20
62.8%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Aeris Williams for 20 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+37
70.9%
Jace Christmann 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:3468% → 63%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
67.7%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+3
67.4%
Keytaon Thompson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+5
66.4%
Keytaon Thompson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+31
66.9%
Keytaon Thompson run for 31 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
70.5%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Jesse JacksonSimilar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-1
70.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 33Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 11
OPP 33
-7
67.3%
Keytaon Thompson sacked by Austrian Robinson for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 40Similar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 18
OPP 40
0
63.0%
Logan Cooke punt for 39 yds, downed at the Miss 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5636% → 35%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
63.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the Miss 1Similar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
63.6%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+1
63.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for 1 yd to the Miss 2Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 9
OWN 2
0
64.4%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q3 10:15
4TH & 9
OWN 2
0
65.4%
Will Gleeson punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17FUMBLE
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:1067% → 66%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
67.3%
Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+7
68.7%
Keytaon Thompson run for 7 yds to the Miss 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
68.3%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+1
68.0%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the Miss 18Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 4
OPP 18
-2
65.6%
Keytaon Thompson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 20 Keytaon Thompson fumbled, recovered by Miss A.J. MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:2740% → 60%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
60.3%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+77
41.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 77 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+15
40.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 26 yds · 1:0442% → 40%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.6%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
41.6%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+20
39.8%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 20 yds Jordan Thomas fumbled, recovered by Miss Montrell CustisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4663% → 61%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
36.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
36.4%
Jordan Wilkins run for no gain to the Miss 49Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
36.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
38.7%
Will Gleeson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Gabe Myles at the MisSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:3038% → 32%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
38.4%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 15Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 11
OWN 15
0
36.3%
Keytaon Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+21
34.7%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Jamal Couch for 21 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
37.1%
Keytaon Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
36.5%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-8
35.2%
Keytaon Thompson sacked by Ryder Anderson for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 2:27
4TH & 15
OWN 31
0
31.7%
Logan Cooke punt for 32 yds, downed at the Miss 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22TD
2 plays · 63 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
11.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 63 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
12.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Miss 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:4218% → 15%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
18.4%
Aeris Williams run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
50
+4
18.8%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+1
17.7%
Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 0:18
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
15.9%
Keytaon Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:13
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
15.4%
Keytaon Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:0391% → 91%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
9.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
9.1%
Jordan Wilkins run for 1 yd to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-8
9.2%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Montez Sweat and Leo Lewis for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 13:58
4TH & 17
OWN 38
0
9.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Gabe Myles at the MisSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:5611% → 11%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+24
10.7%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
50
+15
11.3%
Thompson, Keytaon pass incomplete, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference 15 yards to the OLEMISS35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
12.0%
Keytaon Thompson run for 7 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 3
OPP 28
0
11.5%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Reginald ToddSimilar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 3
OPP 28
0
11.2%
Keytaon Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 3
OPP 28
-2
10.7%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:3193% → 93%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
7.1%
Jordan Ta'amu run for no gain to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
6.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass intercepted Mark McLaurin return for 8 yds to the Miss 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 27TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:249% → 21%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
9.2%
Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+4
8.8%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+5
8.5%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
8.5%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+9
8.2%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 9 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
8.3%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Jordan ThomasSimilar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
8.1%
Keytaon Thompson run for 5 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+15
21.2%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 15 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 28TD
3 plays · 44 yds · 0:3786% → 96%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
14.1%
Jordan Ta'amu run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+46
4.0%
Jordan Wilkins run for 46 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 29TD
14 plays · 69 yds · 3:126% → 13%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
5.8%
Keytaon Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+7
5.6%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Justin Johnson for 7 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+7
5.9%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-7
5.6%
Keytaon Thompson sacked by Breeland Speaks for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 17
OWN 38
0
5.0%
Keytaon Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 17
OWN 38
+16
4.6%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Jamal Couch for 16 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 6:14
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+3
4.6%
Keytaon Thompson run for 3 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
3.5%
Keytaon Thompson run for 9 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+4
3.8%
Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
3.7%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Jordan ThomasSimilar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
16.2%
Kylin Hill run for 30 yds for a TD, (K. Thompson Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
11.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:58
2ND & -5
50
+10
12.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, Illegal Batting (10 Yards) to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 30PUNT
9 plays · 2 yds · 1:4290% → 93%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
10.3%
Eric Swinney run for 2 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+5
9.8%
Eric Swinney run for 5 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 3
OWN 46
-6
7.4%
Swinney, Eric rush for 4 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY OLEMISS holding 6 yards to the OLEMISS40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+1
6.5%
Eric Swinney run for 1 yd to the Miss 41Similar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 8
OWN 41
+21
7.0%
Will Gleeson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Gabe Myles at the MISSSTATE 23 OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 31TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 1:456% → 37%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
6.1%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+6
6.6%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 6 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
6.6%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Jamal CouchSimilar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+13
6.5%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 13 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+32
7.8%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 32 yds to the Miss 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
7.6%
Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd to the Miss 2Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
8.3%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the Miss 1Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.2%
Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 32Uncategorized
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0195% → 95%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
4.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 47
-1
5.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:05
Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
+28.9
TD · Q3 2:15
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 63 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
-19.8
TD · Q3 7:13
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 77 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
-19.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com