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MIZ

Missouri 45 at Vanderbilt 17

VAN
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:18 · Sam Loy punt for 50 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Home team on offense−1.5Score differential−0.5Pregame prior−19.1Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:43: Larry Rountree III run for 12 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +6.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:33: Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted for a TD Brandon Lee return for 42 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +5.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:50: Ralph Webb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +1.3 pts (now 7%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:30: Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 7 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +2.4 pts (now 5%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:10: Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 57 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +1.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 10MIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:33MIZ 4th & 4 at VAN 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    69.6%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:51VAN 4th & 13 at VAN 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:02MIZ 4th & 14 at MIZ 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:18VAN 4th & 4 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:51MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00VAN 4th & 10 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:43VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 31, down 14
    Close callPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:13MIZ 4th & 2 at VAN 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    74.1%−2.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    74.8%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:33VAN 4th & 13 at VAN 22, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:11VAN 4th & 2 at VAN 32, down 28
    Close callPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:25VAN 4th & 11 at MIZ 29, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    4.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:53MIZ 4th & 7 at VAN 23, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:30MIZ 4th & 3 at MIZ 25, up 24
    Close callPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:15VAN 4th & 4 at MIZ 4, down 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.5%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−2.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:56MIZ 4th & 9 at MIZ 23, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:56VAN 4th & 10 at MIZ 10, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−2.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:10VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 29, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:23MIZ 4th & 3 at VAN 40, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:45MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:43MIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:33MIZ Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:56MIZ Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:50VAN Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:30VAN Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:10MIZ Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:1572% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
28.3%
Drew Lock run for 12 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
28.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 11 yds to the Vandy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
28.3%
Drew Lock run for 5 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+23
28.3%
Ish Witter run for 23 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
28.3%
Ish Witter run for 13 yds to the Vandy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
28.3%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
28.3%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
28.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 7 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.6%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 25Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Sam Dobbs for 1 yd to the Vandy 26Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
28.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted Adam Sparks return for 7 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4772% → 71%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
28.5%
Ish Witter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 33Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+6
28.5%
Drew Lock run for 6 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+2
28.4%
Drew Lock run for 2 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 4
OPP 25
0
28.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Albert OkwuegbunamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
29.0%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 21Similar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+1
28.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 1 yd to the Vandy 22Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 14
OWN 22
+1
28.9%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 23Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 13
OWN 23
0
28.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 13
OWN 23
0
28.6%
Sam Loy punt for 53 yds, downed at the Misso 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
28.9%
[SH], Lock, Drew pass incomplete to Johnson, Johnat (T. Ferguson), PENALTY VANDY pass interference (T. Ferguson) 15 yards to the MU39, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
28.4%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-5
28.4%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 36Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 13
OWN 36
0
28.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Larry Rountree IIISimilar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 13
OWN 36
-5
29.0%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 31Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 18
OWN 31
+4
29.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q1 8:02
4TH & 14
OWN 35
0
29.3%
Corey Fatony punt for 42 yds, downed at the Vandy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
29.0%
Ralph Webb run for 10 yds to the Vandy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
29.2%
Jamauri Wakefield run for 6 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+3
29.7%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
29.6%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-6
29.7%
Trent Sherfield run for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 38Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 16
OWN 38
+7
29.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 7 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+5
29.2%
[SH], Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 4 yards to the VANDY49 (Sparks, Adam), PENALTY MU offside (Williams, Tre) 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 4
50
0
29.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Sam Dobbs VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 4
50
0
29.3%
Sam Loy punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
29.1%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
28.7%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
29.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon Johnson, broken up by Taurean FergusonSimilar
Q1 1:51
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+6
29.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 32 , Kalija Lipscomb returns for 6 yds to the Vandy 30 VANDERBILT Penalty, roughing the kicker (10 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:0929% → 29%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
29.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Donaven Tennyson for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
50
0
30.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 10
50
0
30.2%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
50
0
29.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
50
0
29.1%
Sam Loy punt for 38 yds, downed at the Misso 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9TD
5 plays · 88 yds · 1:0071% → 77%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
29.3%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
29.4%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+5
29.7%
[SH], Lock, Drew pass incomplete to Hall, Emanuel, PENALTY VANDY offside (Charles Wright) 5 yards to the MU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+71
29.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 71 yds to the VANDERBILT 12 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
22.9%
Larry Rountree III run for 12 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
24.1%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 15Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+7
24.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 7 yds to the Vandy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
24.2%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
24.3%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 25Similar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+6
24.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 6 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q2 13:43
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
24.3%
Sam Loy punt for 52 yds, downed at the Misso 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 42 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+17
22.4%
Ish Witter run for 17 yds to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
22.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 4 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+12
21.7%
Ish Witter run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
50
+4
21.6%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+2
21.6%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+2
21.8%
Drew Lock run for 2 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q2 10:13
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+1
22.3%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Vandy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+42
17.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted for a TD Brandon Lee return for 42 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija Lipscomb, broken up by DeMarkus AcySimilar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
16.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 22Similar
Q2 7:33
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
15.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Ralph WebbSimilar
Q2 7:33
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
15.8%
Sam Loy punt for 34 yds, downed at the Misso 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 1:3987% → 87%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
13.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
13.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+5
13.5%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Vandy 48Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+17
13.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 17 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
12.9%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Vandy 30Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
13.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+30
13.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Richaud Floyd for 30 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:458% → 4%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
7.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Ralph WebbSimilar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+9
7.3%
Ralph Webb run for 9 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 1
OWN 33
-1
7.4%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 32Similar
Q2 3:11
4TH & 2
OWN 32
+74
4.4%
Sam Loy punt for 42 yds , Richaud Floyd returns for 74 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16DOWNS
15 plays · 41 yds · 2:465% → 3%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
4.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 9 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 1
OWN 39
-3
4.4%
Dallas Rivers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 36Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+5
4.3%
[SH], Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. Duncan, QB hurry by Williams, Tre, PENALTY MU offside (Williams, Tre) 5 yards to the VANDY41, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
4.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 11 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
4.8%
Kyle Shurmur run for 1 yd to the Misso 47Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 9
OPP 47
-6
4.5%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Cale Garrett for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 47Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+25
4.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 25 yds to the Misso 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
5.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Sam DobbsSimilar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-6
4.8%
Kyle Shurmur run for a loss of 6 yards to the Misso 34 Kyle Shurmur fumbled, recovered by Vandy Kyle ShurmurSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 16
OPP 34
0
2.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 16
OPP 34
+5
2.7%
[SH], Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent Sherfield, PENALTY MU offside (Williams, Tre) 5 yards to the MU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 11
OPP 29
0
2.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent Sherfield, broken up by Terry Beckner Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
3.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:105% → 7%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
4.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 31 yds to the Misso 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
5.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 7 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+9
5.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 9 yds to the Misso 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+25
5.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 25 yds to the Misso 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
5.2%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 6Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
5.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Dallas Rivers, QB hurry by Hall, Terez, PENALTY MU holding (Wilson, Thomas) 3 yards to the MU3, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
5.2%
[SH], Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Sam Dobbs, PENALTY MU offside (44) 2 yards to the MU1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
5.2%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Misso 1Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.5%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 2:5795% → 96%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
4.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 3 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+24
4.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 24 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
4.5%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+2
4.4%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Vandy 38Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+12
4.6%
Ish Witter run for 12 yds to the Vandy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
3.4%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
3.4%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
3.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Richaud Floyd, broken up by Arnold Tarpley IIISimilar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+41
3.7%
Tucker McCann 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:233% → 5%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
2.5%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 31Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
2.4%
[SH], Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Sam Dobbs for 4 yards to the VANDY35 (Sherrils, Antho), PENALTY MU offside (Harold, Jordan) 5 yards to the VANDY36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+20
2.4%
Ralph Webb run for 20 yds to the Misso 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+24
2.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 24 yds to the Misso 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
2.8%
Trent Sherfield run for 3 yds to the Misso 17Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+10
2.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Donaven Tennyson for 10 yds to the Misso 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
5.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 7 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
3.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Misso 3Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+7
3.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 7 yds to the Misso 10Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+8
3.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 8 yds to the Misso 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
3.5%
Drew Lock run for 1 yd to the Misso 19Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+1
3.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Misso 20Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+5
3.5%
Lock, Drew pass complete to Moore, J'Mon for 6 yards to the MU26 (Tre Herndon), PENALTY VANDY substitution infraction 5 yards to the MU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
3.4%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
3.6%
Corey Fatony punt for 38 yds, downed at the Vandy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 2:234% → 5%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
3.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
3.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Caleb ScottSimilar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+11
3.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 11 yds to the Vandy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+29
4.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 14 yds to the VANDERBILT 38 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, personal foul (Brandon Lee) to the Misso 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+17
4.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Khari Blasingame for 17 yds to the Misso 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
4.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Dallas Rivers, broken up by Brandon LeeSimilar
Q3 2:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
4.5%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Misso 4Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
4.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q3 0:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+23
4.5%
Tommy Openshaw 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:1998% → 97%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
2.5%
Larry Rountree III run for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 19
0
2.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel Hall, broken up by Joejuan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 13
OWN 19
+4
2.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
2.6%
Corey Fatony punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kalija Lipscomb at the Vandy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:193% → 1%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
3.1%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 43Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+8
3.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 8 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
3.4%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
3.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 6 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+32
3.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 32 yds to the Misso 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
3.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Sam DobbsSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
3.5%
Jamauri Wakefield run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 10Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
3.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent Sherfield, broken up by Terez HallSimilar
Q4 10:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
0
1.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Caleb ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 25TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 3:4098% → 100%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
1.6%
Drew Lock run for 9 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+3
1.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
1.6%
Larry Rountree III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 21Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 11
OWN 21
0
1.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+20
1.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 20 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
1.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Misso 42Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+1
1.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Misso 43Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+57
0.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 57 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 26INT
14 plays · 78 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
0.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 5 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
0.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 4 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+27
0.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 27 yds to the Misso 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
0.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Ralph WebbSimilar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
0.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Ralph WebbSimilar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+10
0.1%
Kyle Shurmur run for 10 yds to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
0.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 12 yds to the Misso 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+17
0.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 17 yds to the Misso 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
0.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. Duncan, broken up by Brandon LeeSimilar
Q4 7:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
0.1%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by A.J. Logan and Marcell Frazier for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 8 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (4 Yards) to the Misso 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
0.1%
[SH], K. Blasingame rush for loss of 3 yards to the MU7 (Garrett, Cale), PENALTY MU offside (54) 2 yards to the MU2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+49
0.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted Terry Beckner Jr. return for 49 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:33100% → 100%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
0.1%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+1
0.1%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Vandy 44Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+4
0.1%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q4 0:23
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
0.1%
Corey Fatony punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Kalija Lipscomb at the Vandy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
0.0%
Jamauri Wakefield run for 1 yd to the Vandy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:43
Larry Rountree III run for 12 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
-6.8
TD · Q2 7:33
Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted for a TD Brandon Lee return for 42 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
-5.2
TD · Q3 5:30
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 7 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
+2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com