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LSU

LSU 30 at Tennessee 10

TENN
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:32 · Jarrett Guarantano run for no gain to the Tenn 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Pregame prior−15.6Home team on offense−18.1Score differential−6.3Garbage-time factor−7.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:31: Darrel Williams run for 10 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK) — LSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:23: Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 46 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +10.5 pts (now 20%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:26: Derrius Guice run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp PAT MISSED) — LSU win probability +6.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:17: Danny Etling pass complete to Darrel Williams for 15 yds to the Tenn 6 for a 1ST down — LSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:06: Darrel Williams run for 6 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK) — LSU win probability +6.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 8 of 10LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:12LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:51TENN 4th & 13 at TENN 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:46LSU 4th & 2 at LSU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:38LSU 4th & 8 at TENN 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    80.5%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:49TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.3%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:59TENN 4th & 13 at LSU 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:37LSU 4th & 11 at LSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:47TENN 4th & 3 at LSU 28, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.8%−0.6
    60% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:32LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:36TENN 4th & 6 at TENN 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:02TENN 4th & 10 at TENN 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−2.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:32TENN 4th & 12 at TENN 14, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:45LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 37, up 13
    Close callPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:32TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 21, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.6%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:42TENN 4th & 10 at LSU 11, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.6%−3.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:31LSU 4th & 2 at TENN 8, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−1.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:56TENN 4th & 7 at LSU 47, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 11:31LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:08LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:23TENN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:26LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:06LSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4090% → 89%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
10.5%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-4
10.7%
Derrick Dillon run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 23Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+9
11.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Darrel Williams for 9 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 13:12
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
11.2%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the Tenn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:2111% → 12%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
11.2%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Devante Brooks) to the Tenn 24Similar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+3
11.2%
John Kelly run for 3 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+6
11.4%
John Kelly run for 6 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 6
OWN 33
-7
11.7%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Kevin Toliver II for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 26Similar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 13
OWN 26
+5
12.0%
Trevor Daniel punt for 49 yds , D.J. Chark returns for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5988% → 87%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
12.2%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
12.5%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+3
12.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 3 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q1 8:46
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
13.1%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 47 yds , Marquez Callaway returns for no gain to the Tenn 15 Marquez Callaway fumbled, recovered by LSU Russell GageSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5987% → 86%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
12.7%
Danny Etling run for 4 yds to the Tenn 11Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+2
13.1%
Danny Etling run for 2 yds to the Tenn 9Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 4
OPP 9
-4
13.4%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 13Similar
Q1 6:38
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+30
13.7%
Connor Culp 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5FG
15 plays · 53 yds · 7:3114% → 18%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
13.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 7 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-3
14.1%
John Kelly run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 24Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+16
14.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to John Kelly for 16 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
15.3%
John Kelly run for 1 yd to the Tenn 41Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+4
15.3%
Carlin Fils-aime run for 4 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+4
15.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to John Kelly for 4 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q1 1:49
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+1
16.1%
John Kelly run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
50
+15
16.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 15 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
17.4%
John Kelly run for no gain to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
17.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to John Kelly for 11 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
18.1%
Tyler Byrd pass incomplete to John KellySimilar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-3
18.3%
John Kelly run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 27Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 13
OPP 27
0
17.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Ethan WolfSimilar
Q2 13:59
4TH & 13
OPP 27
+45
18.4%
Aaron Medley 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1882% → 80%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.0%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
18.2%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-4
18.9%
Danny Etling sacked by Elliott Berry and Jonathan Kongbo for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 12:37
4TH & 11
OWN 24
-8
19.7%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 49 yds , Marquez Callaway returns for a loss of 8 yards to the Tenn 19 Marquez Callaway fumbled, recovered by LSU Michael Divinity Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7TD
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:5983% → 86%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
17.0%
Danny Etling run for 4 yds to the Tenn 15Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+5
17.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for 5 yds to the Tenn 10Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+10
14.1%
Darrel Williams run for 10 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8MISSED FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 6:3215% → 17%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.2%
John Kelly run for no gain to the Tenn 25Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
15.3%
John Kelly run for 3 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+16
15.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Tim Jordan for 16 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
16.5%
John Kelly pass complete to Malik Elion for 10 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
17.3%
John Kelly run for 6 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+3
17.1%
John Kelly run for 3 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+2
17.1%
John Kelly run for 2 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
18.0%
John Kelly run for 8 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 2
OPP 27
-1
18.3%
John Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 3
OPP 28
0
18.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ethan Wolf for no gain to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 4:47
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+46
16.8%
Aaron Medley 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0884% → 84%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
15.6%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
16.0%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+2
15.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 2 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
16.4%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 60 yds, downed at the Tenn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:4916% → 17%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
15.9%
John Kelly run for no gain to the Tenn 5Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
16.6%
John Kelly run for no gain to the Tenn 5Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 10
OWN 5
+4
17.2%
John Kelly run for 4 yds to the Tenn 9Similar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 6
OWN 9
0
17.1%
Trevor Daniel punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 61 yds · 0:2285% → 88%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
15.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 12 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+36
14.7%
Darrel Williams run for 36 yds to the Tenn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
11.7%
Danny Etling run for 13 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:4110% → 20%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
10.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 3 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
9.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to John KellySimilar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+26
9.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 26 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
19.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 46 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 39 yds · 1:2084% → 86%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.2%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
16.8%
Derrius Guice run for 8 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
16.0%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
16.0%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+16
16.4%
Danny Etling pass complete to Russell Gage for 16 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
14.9%
Danny Etling run for 6 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+7
14.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 7 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+53
14.2%
Connor Culp 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 2:4818% → 17%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
17.9%
John Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 2Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 11
OWN 2
+1
18.1%
John Kelly run for 1 yd to the Tenn 3Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 10
OWN 3
-1
17.6%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (-1 Yards) to the Tenn 2Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 11
OWN 2
-1
17.6%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (-1 Yards) to the Tenn 1Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 12
OWN 1
+2
17.6%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 2 yds to the Tenn 3Similar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 10
OWN 3
0
17.3%
Trevor Daniel punt for 47 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 4:2984% → 90%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
50
+4
16.2%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
16.3%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+4
16.7%
Danny Etling run for 4 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
16.6%
Derrius Guice run for 12 yds to the Tenn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
16.4%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the Tenn 26Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+12
16.6%
Darrel Williams run for 12 yds to the Tenn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
16.1%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the Tenn 9Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+6
16.2%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds to the Tenn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
10.1%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3414% → 13%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
13.5%
John Kelly run for no gain to the Tenn 16Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-2
13.1%
John Kelly run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 14Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 12
OWN 14
0
12.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:32
4TH & 12
OWN 14
0
12.6%
Trevor Daniel punt for 56 yds, downed at the LSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4590% → 90%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
10.1%
Derrius Guice run for no gain to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
10.0%
Derrius Guice run for no gain to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+7
10.3%
Danny Etling run for 7 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
9.7%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 51 yds, downed at the Tenn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4413% → 12%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
12.8%
John Kelly run for 9 yds to the Tenn 21Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 1
OWN 21
0
13.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Josh PalmerSimilar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 1
OWN 21
0
12.4%
Jarrett Guarantano run for no gain to the Tenn 21Similar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
12.2%
Jarrett Guarantano run for no gain to the Tenn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19TD
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:1192% → 98%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
8.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to Darrel Williams for 15 yds to the Tenn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
2.2%
Darrel Williams run for 6 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20DOWNS
13 plays · 69 yds · 4:133% → 2%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
3.4%
John Kelly run for 5 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
3.3%
John Kelly run for 1 yd to the Tenn 26Similar
Q3 0:05
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+60
3.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jeff George for 60 yds to the LSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-6
3.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Tenn Jarrett GuarantanoSimilar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 16
OPP 20
0
3.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 16
OPP 20
+9
3.2%
LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Donte Jackson) to the LSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
3.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Marquez CallawaySimilar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+4
3.0%
John Kelly run for 4 yds to the LSU 7Similar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 6
OPP 7
-4
2.9%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Trey Smith) to the LSU 11Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
2.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:42
4TH & 10
OPP 11
0
2.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Ethan WolfSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21MISSED FG
17 plays · 80 yds · 9:0998% → 99%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
2.2%
Derrius Guice run for 7 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+6
2.1%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.9%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
1.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for 10 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
1.6%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+2
1.5%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+6
1.4%
Danny Etling run for 6 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
1.3%
Derrius Guice run for 13 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
1.3%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+3
1.2%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 4
OPP 30
-1
1.1%
Darrel Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 31Similar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+15
1.0%
Etling, Danny pass incomplete to Chark, D.J., PENALTY TENNESSEE pass interference (Wiggins, Shaq) 15 yards to the TENNESSEE16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
0.7%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the Tenn 15Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+6
0.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to Darrel Williams for 6 yds to the Tenn 9Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+1
0.7%
Darrel Williams run for 1 yd to the Tenn 8Similar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+25
0.7%
Connor Culp 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:041% → 1%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
0.9%
Carlin Fils-aime run for 2 yds to the Tenn 22Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
0.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+28
0.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Tim Jordan for 28 yds Tim Jordan fumbled, recovered by TennSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
50
+7
0.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 7 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-4
0.8%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Christian LaCouture and Devin White for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
0.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:56
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
0.8%
Jarrett Guarantano run for no gain to the LSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:39100% → 100%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 46Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 11
OWN 46
-2
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:23
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 46 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+10.5
TD · Q3 7:26
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp PAT MISSED)
-6.1
TD · Q3 2:06
Darrel Williams run for 6 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)
-6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com