2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Williams-Brice Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadWOF aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreWOF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:56 · Jake Bentley run for 2 yds to the Woffd 35 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:55: Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 23 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +4.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:23: Blake Morgan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Carter KICK) — WOF win probability +9.6 pts (now 17%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 9:23: Luke Carter kickoff for 60 yds , Shi Smith return for 25 yds to the SCaro 30 — SC win probability +2.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: WOF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:21: Jake Bentley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +4.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- FG · Q4 13:43: Parker White 27 yd FG GOOD — SC win probability +2.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WOF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 15:00SC 4th & 10 at WOF 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snapGo for it93.3%−<0.130% to convertField goal93.3%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call93.3%average punt
- Q1 3:43WOF 4th & 9 at SC 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.1% before the snapGo for it10.0%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call10.1%84% to makePunt9.4%−0.7average punt
- Q1 3:43SC 4th & 1 at WOF 49, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call89.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt89.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 15:00SC 4th & 2 at WOF 37, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.3%57% to convertField goal87.9%−0.340% to makePunt87.9%−0.4average punt
- Q2 7:37WOF 4th & 17 at WOF 31, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snapGo for it11.5%−0.914% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.4%average punt
- Q3 5:43WOF 4th & 1 at WOF 46, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.5%−1.0average punt
- Q3 2:56SC 4th & 1 at WOF 37, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.2%70% to convertField goal89.9%−1.340% to makePunt89.8%−1.4average punt
- Q4 13:43SC 4th & 5 at WOF 10, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.8% before the snapGo for it91.5%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call91.6%88% to makePunt87.9%−3.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WOF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 7:37SC Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.4%97% to makeGo for two87.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:55SC Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.4%97% to makeGo for two90.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:23WOF Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.1%97% to makeGo for two16.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:21SC Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.4%97% to makeGo for two90.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:54SC Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSCDrive 1PUNT10 plays · 40 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
95.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 6 yds to the SCaro 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+23
95.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 23 yds to the SCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+12
95.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 12 yds to the Woffd 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-6
95.8%
Jake Bentley sacked by Terrance Morris for a loss of 6 yards to the Woffd 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 48
+6
95.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to A.J. Turner for 6 yds to the Woffd 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 2FG14 plays · 79 yds · 7:225% → 7%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
95.0%
Brandon Goodson pass complete to Jason Hill for 9 yds to the Woffd 28Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+19
95.0%
Blake Morgan run for 4 yds to the SCaro 40 for a 1ST down SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Skai Moore) to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3DOWNS10 plays · 38 yds · 3:4393% → 92%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
92.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 17 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
93.1%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Bryan Edwards, broken up by George GbeseeSimilar
Q1 3:43
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+4
92.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Mon Denson for 4 yds to the Woffd 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
93.1%
Jake Bentley sacked by Billy Hinton for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 4INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
90.9%
Brandon Goodson pass intercepted Skai Moore return for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5TD12 plays · 50 yds · 7:1092% → 91%
Q2 14:47
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+9
91.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 9 yds to the Woffd 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
92.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to OrTre Smith for 7 yds to the Woffd 18Similar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
92.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 9 yds to the Woffd 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 6PUNT9 plays · 11 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q2 7:37
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+14
90.5%
Brandon Goodson pass complete to Lennox McAfee for 14 yds to the Woffd 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7TD11 plays · 72 yds · 3:3590% → 94%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
89.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 5 yds to the SCaro 33Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
89.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for no gain to the SCaro 33Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+6
89.2%
Jake Bentley pass complete to OrTre Smith for 6 yds to the SCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+5
90.3%
Jake Bentley pass complete to OrTre Smith for 5 yds to the Woffd 41Similar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
89.4%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Hayden Hurst, PENALTY WOF pass interference (Dominique Lemon) 15 yards to the WOF23, 1ST DOWN SC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
93.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 23 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 8END OF HALF3 plays · 5 yds · 0:008% → 7%
WOFDrive 9TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:377% → 17%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
92.0%
Andre Stoddard run for 1 yd to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST down SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Keir Thomas) to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+1
92.2%
Lennox McAfee rush for no gain to the SC2 (Javon Kinlaw), PENALTY SC offside 1 yards to the SC1, 1ST DOWN WOF, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 10TD8 plays · 70 yds · 3:0287% → 93%
WOFDrive 11DOWNS9 plays · 21 yds · 0:389% → 8%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.5%
Brandon Goodson pass complete to Blake Morgan for 5 yds to the Woffd 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12FG9 plays · 36 yds · 4:1394% → 97%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
93.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for no gain to the Woffd 46Similar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+9
93.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Chavis Dawkins for 9 yds to the Woffd 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+1
93.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 1 yd to the Woffd 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 13FUMBLE3 plays · 13 yds · 0:004% → 4%
SCDrive 14TD6 plays · 38 yds · 2:5997% → 99%
Q4 12:53
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+15
97.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jacob August for 15 yds to the Woffd 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 15INT10 plays · 48 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 9:54
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+27
99.2%
Joe Newman pass complete to Lennox McAfee for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
50
-2
99.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Woffd 39 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Woffd Andre StoddardSimilar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 21
OWN 39
+17
99.2%
Joe Newman pass complete to R.J. Taylor for 17 yds to the SCaro 44Similar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-12
99.1%
Joe Newman sacked by Brad Johnson for a loss of 12 yards to the SCaro 49 WOFFORD Penalty, intentional grounding (Joe Newman) to the SCaro 49Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+8
99.2%
Joe Newman pass intercepted Rashad Fenton return for 8 yds to the SCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 16END OF GAME7 plays · 60 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:23
Blake Morgan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Carter KICK)
-9.6
TD · Q2 0:55
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 23 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)
+4.1
TD · Q3 6:21
Jake Bentley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker White KICK)
+4.1