Try the model
ULM

UL Monroe 14 at Auburn 42

AUB
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:46 · Harrison Heim punt for 42 yds , Ryan Davis returns for no gain to the Aub 15 Ryan Davis fumbled, recovered by Aub
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Pregame prior+39.1Home team on offense−1.1Score differential−2.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:27: Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 50 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +3.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:33: Kam Martin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +2.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:46: Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kam Martin for 41 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +2.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:09: Garrett Smith pass intercepted for a TD Nick Ruffin return for 45 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:41: Garrett Smith pass complete to Brian Williams for 70 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +0.5 pts (now 1%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ULM made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 6:36ULM 4th & 2 at AUB 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:35ULM 4th & 6 at ULM 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:53AUB 4th & 2 at ULM 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.0%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:05ULM 4th & 12 at ULM 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:41AUB 4th & 13 at ULM 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:46ULM 4th & 20 at ULM 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:11AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:01ULM 4th & 10 at AUB 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    9.3%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:02ULM 4th & 11 at ULM 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:01ULM 4th & 3 at AUB 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:21ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:05AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:55AUB 4th & 2 at ULM 36, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:07ULM 4th & 3 at AUB 44, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    27% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:08AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:36ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:27AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:33AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:46AUB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:09AUB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:41ULM Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:58AUB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:3599% → 98%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
98.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 6 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+16
98.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for 16 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
98.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+8
98.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 8 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
98.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 7 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+2
98.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+6
98.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+21
98.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 21 yds to the LaMon 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 5:192% → 2%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.4%
Derrick Gore run for 4 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
98.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
98.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 8 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
98.3%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+36
98.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Derrick Gore for 36 yds Derrick Gore fumbled, forced by Carlton Davis, recovered by LaMon for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
98.2%
Caleb Evans run for 5 yds to the Aub 19Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+5
98.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 5 yds to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
98.1%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Brian WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-2
98.1%
Caleb Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 16Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 12
OPP 16
+14
98.1%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jamel Dean) to the Aub 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
97.9%
Kayin White run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 4Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
97.9%
AUBURN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (2 Yards) to the Aub 2Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
97.9%
Derrick Gore run for no gain to the Aub 2Similar
Q1 6:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
97.8%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Tyler LammSimilar
Q1 6:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.6%
Brian Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3INT
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:3798% → 97%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
97.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Aub 18Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+9
97.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 9 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
97.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 4 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+14
97.4%
Devan Barrett run for 14 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
97.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 44Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+15
97.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 15 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
97.3%
Jarrett Stidham run for 2 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
97.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass intercepted Roland Jenkins return for no gain to the LaMon 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:563% → 3%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
97.1%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+4
97.0%
Ben Luckett run for 4 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 6
OWN 18
0
97.0%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:35
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
97.0%
Harrison Heim punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the Aub 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:2497% → 97%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
96.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Aub 36Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
96.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+5
96.7%
UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Aub 44Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
96.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
96.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Ryan DavisSimilar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
96.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+6
96.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 6 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
96.5%
Aidan Marshall punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:184% → 4%
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
96.1%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
96.1%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+10
96.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 10 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
95.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 5 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-2
95.7%
Kayin White run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 35Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-5
95.6%
UL MONROE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 30Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 12
OWN 30
0
95.7%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to RJ TurnerSimilar
Q2 12:05
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
95.8%
Harrison Heim punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the Aub 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:1296% → 95%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
95.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 13 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
95.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 4 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+14
95.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 14 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
95.9%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Nate Craig-Myers) to the LaMon 46Similar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 15
OPP 46
0
95.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for no gain to the LaMon 46Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+2
95.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 2 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 13
OPP 44
0
95.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 13
OPP 44
0
94.9%
Aidan Marshall punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8FUMBLE
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:445% → 7%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
94.7%
Derrick Gore run for no gain to the LaMon 16Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+7
94.5%
Marcus Green run for 7 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+7
94.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 7 yds to the LaMon 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
93.8%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+16
93.5%
Caleb Evans run for 16 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
93.0%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
92.9%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 8
OPP 49
-12
92.5%
Caleb Evans sacked by Deshaun Davis for a loss of 12 yards to the LaMon 39Similar
Q2 5:46
4TH & 20
OWN 39
0
93.3%
Harrison Heim punt for 42 yds , Ryan Davis returns for no gain to the Aub 15 Ryan Davis fumbled, recovered by AubSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1694% → 93%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
93.5%
Eli Stove run for 1 yd to the Aub 16Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+4
93.1%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
92.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
92.5%
Aidan Marshall punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:069% → 9%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
91.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to RJ TurnerSimilar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
91.3%
Caleb Evans run for 8 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+4
90.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 4 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
90.4%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
90.2%
Caleb Evans run for no gain to the Aub 39Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
90.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Brian WilliamsSimilar
Q2 2:01
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
90.9%
Harrison Heim punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11TD
4 plays · 96 yds · 0:2892% → 95%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+15
91.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 15 yds to the Aub 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+14
91.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 14 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
91.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
50
+50
95.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 50 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12PUNT
14 plays · 20 yds · 1:215% → 5%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
94.7%
Duke Carter IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 23Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+10
94.6%
Caleb Evans run for 10 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
94.4%
Kayin White run for 2 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
94.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Brian WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
94.4%
Marcus Green run for 2 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+9
94.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 9 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
93.7%
Caleb Evans sacked by Dontavius Russell for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 45Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
94.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Brian WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
94.6%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Kayin WhiteSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
94.9%
Harrison Heim punt for 31 yds, downed at the Aub 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
94.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:386% → 7%
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.1%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
93.9%
Derrick Gore run for 17 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
93.4%
Caleb Evans run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 5
50
+2
92.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 2 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
92.9%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
93.2%
Harrison Heim punt for 43 yds, downed at the Aub 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15TD
10 plays · 95 yds · 3:1694% → 97%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
93.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+8
93.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 8 yds to the Aub 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
93.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+3
93.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+10
93.1%
Kerryon Johnson run for 10 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
93.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+22
93.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 22 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
93.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 8 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+31
94.3%
Kam Martin run for 31 yds to the LaMon 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.7%
Kam Martin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:004% → 4%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.1%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
95.8%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
96.1%
Caleb Evans run for 5 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q3 8:21
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
95.9%
Harrison Heim punt for 53 yds, downed at the Aub 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:5196% → 96%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
96.4%
Malik Miller run for 4 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+13
96.6%
Kam Martin run for 13 yds to the Aub 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
96.6%
Kam Martin run for 1 yd to the Aub 32Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+4
96.5%
Eli Stove run for 4 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
96.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q3 6:05
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+6
96.2%
Aidan Marshall punt for 49 yds , Marcus Green returns for 6 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18INT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:114% → 5%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
95.6%
Kayin White run for 6 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+2
95.3%
Kayin White run for 2 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+4
95.6%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Brian Williams for 4 yds to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
95.4%
Garrett Smith run for 2 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+5
95.6%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Kayin White for 5 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
95.4%
Garrett Smith pass intercepted Javaris Davis return for no gain to the LaMon 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19TD
2 plays · 43 yds · 0:2897% → 99%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
96.7%
Kam Martin run for 2 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+41
99.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kam Martin for 41 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:121% → 1%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.8%
Derrick Gore run for 6 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
98.9%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q3 1:23
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+11
99.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Brian Williams for 11 yds Brian Williams fumbled, forced by Javaris Davis, recovered by Aub Nick Ruffin to the LaMon 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21FUMBLE
12 plays · 38 yds · 4:2899% → 99%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
99.2%
Kam Martin run for 3 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 7
OPP 41
-5
99.3%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 46Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 12
OPP 46
0
99.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q3 0:08
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+10
99.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Malik Miller for 10 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+3
99.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
99.3%
Kam Martin run for 2 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+3
99.3%
Kam Martin run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+5
99.3%
Kam Martin run for 5 yds to the LaMon 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
99.4%
Kam Martin run for 12 yds to the LaMon 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
99.4%
Kam Martin run for 10 yds to the LaMon 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.4%
Kam Martin run for no gain to the LaMon 1Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
99.4%
Jarrett Stidham run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 6 Jarrett Stidham fumbled, recovered by LaMon Traveion WebsterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22INT TD
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:461% → 0%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
99.3%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Derrick Gore for 2 yds to the LaMon 8Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 8
OWN 8
-4
99.3%
UL MONROE Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the LaMon 4Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 12
OWN 4
-2
99.3%
Derrick Gore run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 2Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 14
OWN 2
+15
99.3%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (John Broussard Jr.) to the LaMon 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
99.3%
Garrett Smith run for 3 yds to the LaMon 20Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+11
99.3%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 11 yds to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
99.3%
Kayin White run for 1 yd to the LaMon 32Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+1
99.3%
Garrett Smith run for 1 yd to the LaMon 33Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+45
99.9%
Garrett Smith pass intercepted for a TD Nick Ruffin return for 45 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 0:510% → 1%
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
99.9%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+3
99.9%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+70
99.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Brian Williams for 70 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:2399% → 100%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
99.4%
Malik Miller run for 5 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+62
99.4%
Malik Willis run for 62 yds to the LaMon 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
99.5%
Malik Miller run for 4 yds to the LaMon 3Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.5%
Malik Willis run for 2 yds to the LaMon 1Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Malik Miller run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:270% → 0%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+28
100.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to RJ Turner for 28 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
100.0%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Roland JenkinsSimilar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
100.0%
Duke Carter IV run for 8 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 2
OPP 43
-1
100.0%
Duke Carter IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 44Similar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
100.0%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Sloan SpillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:26100% → 100%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
100.0%
Devan Barrett run for 7 yds to the LaMon 49 Devan Barrett fumbled, forced by Austin Hawley, recovered by Aub Griffin KingSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 49
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:27
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 50 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+3.3
TD · Q3 9:33
Kam Martin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+2.4
TD · Q3 2:46
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kam Martin for 41 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com